Fragile. Likely holds short term for a bounce, but without easing in oil or rates, it risks breaking toward 6200–6300.
2. Retail pessimism
Normally contrarian bullish, but context matters. With Fed tight + geopolitical risk, this looks like early fear, not capitulation. True bottoms need panic + catalyst.
3. A vs B
Leaning B (Follow the Trend).
No rate cuts, oil acting as inflation shock, war risk unresolved → rallies may be sellable.
Bottom line:
6500 = possible bounce, not a safe floor.
Sentiment not extreme enough yet.
Macro still bearish unless oil drops or policy shifts.
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