My Investing Muse (27Apr26) Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies Meta is laying off 8,000 employees, 10% of its entire global workforce starting May 20, with a second, larger wave planned for the second half of the year. And this morning, Microsoft made a move that is in some ways even more significant. For the first time in its 51-year history, Microsoft is offering voluntary retirement buyouts to roughly 7% of its U.S. workforce, approximately 8,750 employees whose combined age and years of service total at least 70. - X user StockMarket News In the week of April 20-25, 2026, a fresh wave of corporate layoffs—largely AI-driven—hit major firms, continuing 2026’s trend of efficiency-focused cuts: Meta announced plans to lay off ~8,000 employees (10% of workforce) starting May 20, while scra
Market Outlook of S&P500 (27Apr26) Technical Analysis Overview MACD Indicator The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 is trending up. Chaikin Money Flow The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) stands at 0.39, indicating there is more buying momentum than selling pressure in the market. Moving Averages Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows the last candlestick has been above the 50-day moving average (MA50) and the 200-day moving average (MA200). This pattern indicates a bullish shift in both the short and long term. Notably, the MA50 line has begun to turn upwards, raising the possibility of a “death cross” forming—a bearish technical pattern where the MA50 crosses below the MA200. Exponential Moving Averages The exponential
Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 27Apr26) Consumer sentiment Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence (April): Due next week. The prior reading was 91.8 (lower confidence). This release will be an important gauge of US consumer sentiment and the broader economic outlook. Growth and demand indicators Durable Goods Orders: Forecast +0.5%, improving from the prior -1.4%. Crude oil inventories: A useful reference for near-term demand expectations, as inventory drawdowns can reflect anticipated consumption. Federal Reserve focus FOMC rate decision: The market expects the policy rate to be held at 3.75%. FOMC statement and press conference: Key for guidance on the likely path of future rate decisions. Leadership transition: Even
Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 27Apr26) Consumer sentiment Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence (April): Due next week. The prior reading was 91.8 (lower confidence). This release will be an important gauge of US consumer sentiment and the broader economic outlook. Growth and demand indicators Durable Goods Orders: Forecast +0.5%, improving from the prior -1.4%. Crude oil inventories: A useful reference for near-term demand expectations, as inventory drawdowns can reflect anticipated consumption. Federal Reserve focus FOMC rate decision: The market expects the policy rate to be held at 3.75%. FOMC statement and press conference: Key for guidance on the likely path of future rate decisions. Leadership transition: Even with Chair Jerome Powell expected to step down, the co
(Full Article) Preview of the week (20Apr26) - Can Dow make it?
Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 20Apr2026) Retail Sales Data The coming week begins with the release of core retail sales figures for March. This data is a crucial indicator, as it reflects consumer sentiment in the market. Observing how consumers are spending provides valuable insight into the broader economic outlook. Crude Oil Inventories Another significant factor affecting market sentiment is the crude oil inventories report. Previously, there was a drawdown of approximately 913,000 barrels. If the upcoming report shows a drawdown larger than the forecasted 1,000,000 barrels, it could be considered bullish for the market demand. Initial Jobless Claims Initial jobless claims are forecasted to reach 212,000, which represents a slight increase from the previous figure of 207
Quick analysis of S&P500 S&P500 closed the day with 6886.24, a gain of 1.02%. Analysts have claimed that the Gulf War losses were wiped out. Let us look at some of the technicals. MACD is on an uptrend. The last candle is above both the 50- and 200-day moving average (MA) lines on the daily interval. This implies bullish in both the short and long term. The 3 exponential moving average (EMA) lines are on the up trend. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) remains in the selling region even though there is increasing buying momentum. What is concerning is the volume. Volume is the momentum of the trade that is not supported, meaning that the current run may not last. Let us exercise caution and do our due diligence. @TigerStars
Part 4 of 5 > News Highlight from past week (13apr2026)
News and my thoughts from the past week (13Apr2026) JD Vance says the US delegation will return to America WITHOUT a deal with Iran, but that this outcome is MUCH worse for Iran than the US. “We've been at it for 21 HOURS. We've had substantive discussions...but the bad news is, we have NOT reached an agreement.” “That's bad news for Iran MUCH more than it is bad news for the USA.” - X user Nick Sortor US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell called Wall Street leaders to an ‘urgent meeting’ on concerns that the latest AI model from Anthropic will ‘usher in an era of greater cyber risk’, according to Bloomberg report. OpenAI is pausing its Stargate project in the UK due to high electricity cost + regulatory environment - X user Nik Nearly half of the plan
Part 1 of 5 > Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 13Apr2026)
Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 13Apr2026) Existing Home Sales Existing home sales for March are projected to reach 4.05 million units. This figure serves as a reliable indicator of the overall health of the American real estate market, reflecting both buyer demand and market activity. Home Builder Confidence The home builder confidence index is expected to decrease to 37, down from 38 in the previous month. This index is an important gauge for the residential and real estate industry, providing insight into the sentiment of builders regarding current and future market conditions. Producer Price Index (PPI) One of the most closely watched macroeconomic reports in the upcoming week is the core Producer Price Index (PPI) for March. The PPI measures inflation affecting producers,
The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended to be and do not constit
Q1 was clearly not what the market hoped for — sentiment weakened, volatility picked up, and many high-growth names saw pullbacks. But here’s the real question: is this weakness temporary, or the start of something deeper? Personally, I see Q2 as a potential turning point, not because everything suddenly becomes perfect, but because expectations have already been reset lower. A few things I’m watching closely: • Earnings revisions – If companies stop guiding down, that alone can support a rebound • AI & tech spending trends – Still strong structurally, despite short-term fears • Macro pressure – Rates, liquidity, and any policy shifts will drive sentiment fast • Positioning – A lot of fear is already priced in, which creates upside if news is “less bad” Markets don’t rally when things
The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended to be and do not constit
The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended to be and do not constit
The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended to be and do not constit
Q2 Won't Be "Straight Line Up". Look At Quality Growth And Energy Sector Strength
The disappointment of 2026 Q1 was largely driven by a "perfect storm" of geopolitical tension in the Middle East, a spike in Brent crude above $100/barrel, and a shift toward a "higher-for-longer" interest rate narrative. However, as we enter the first full week of April, the tone is shifting from panic to a "pensive" recovery. Q2 Market Outlook & Sentiment The consensus for Q2 is cautiously bullish. While Q1 felt like "catching a falling knife," analysts see strong support levels forming. The "TACO" Trade: Markets are increasingly pricing in a pivot by the administration (the "Trump Always Comes Off" trade) to prevent an equity meltdown. Earnings Growth: S&P 500 earnings are projected to grow by 19.1% in Q2, with 9 out of 11 sectors expected to show year-over-year growth. Sentimen
The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended to be and do not constit
Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 27Apr26) Consumer sentiment Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence (April): Due next week. The prior reading was 91.8 (lower confidence). This release will be an important gauge of US consumer sentiment and the broader economic outlook. Growth and demand indicators Durable Goods Orders: Forecast +0.5%, improving from the prior -1.4%. Crude oil inventories: A useful reference for near-term demand expectations, as inventory drawdowns can reflect anticipated consumption. Federal Reserve focus FOMC rate decision: The market expects the policy rate to be held at 3.75%. FOMC statement and press conference: Key for guidance on the likely path of future rate decisions. Leadership transition: Even with Chair Jerome Powell expected to step down, the co
My Investing Muse (27Apr26) Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies Meta is laying off 8,000 employees, 10% of its entire global workforce starting May 20, with a second, larger wave planned for the second half of the year. And this morning, Microsoft made a move that is in some ways even more significant. For the first time in its 51-year history, Microsoft is offering voluntary retirement buyouts to roughly 7% of its U.S. workforce, approximately 8,750 employees whose combined age and years of service total at least 70. - X user StockMarket News In the week of April 20-25, 2026, a fresh wave of corporate layoffs—largely AI-driven—hit major firms, continuing 2026’s trend of efficiency-focused cuts: Meta announced plans to lay off ~8,000 employees (10% of workforce) starting May 20, while scra
Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 27Apr26) Consumer sentiment Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence (April): Due next week. The prior reading was 91.8 (lower confidence). This release will be an important gauge of US consumer sentiment and the broader economic outlook. Growth and demand indicators Durable Goods Orders: Forecast +0.5%, improving from the prior -1.4%. Crude oil inventories: A useful reference for near-term demand expectations, as inventory drawdowns can reflect anticipated consumption. Federal Reserve focus FOMC rate decision: The market expects the policy rate to be held at 3.75%. FOMC statement and press conference: Key for guidance on the likely path of future rate decisions. Leadership transition: Even
Market Outlook of S&P500 (27Apr26) Technical Analysis Overview MACD Indicator The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 is trending up. Chaikin Money Flow The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) stands at 0.39, indicating there is more buying momentum than selling pressure in the market. Moving Averages Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows the last candlestick has been above the 50-day moving average (MA50) and the 200-day moving average (MA200). This pattern indicates a bullish shift in both the short and long term. Notably, the MA50 line has begun to turn upwards, raising the possibility of a “death cross” forming—a bearish technical pattern where the MA50 crosses below the MA200. Exponential Moving Averages The exponential
(Full Article) Preview of the week (20Apr26) - Can Dow make it?
Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 20Apr2026) Retail Sales Data The coming week begins with the release of core retail sales figures for March. This data is a crucial indicator, as it reflects consumer sentiment in the market. Observing how consumers are spending provides valuable insight into the broader economic outlook. Crude Oil Inventories Another significant factor affecting market sentiment is the crude oil inventories report. Previously, there was a drawdown of approximately 913,000 barrels. If the upcoming report shows a drawdown larger than the forecasted 1,000,000 barrels, it could be considered bullish for the market demand. Initial Jobless Claims Initial jobless claims are forecasted to reach 212,000, which represents a slight increase from the previous figure of 207
As the US-Iran war goes into its 6th week of fighting, we have to be mentally prepared for a worsening of the situation, not unless US stick to its peaceful retreat and not execute another foolish stunt. While the world wait for US to exhibit proof of sincerity, it marches on as it is “business as usual”. Is it really so, when everyone is sucked into this black hole - willingly or otherwise ? Below was US reports released for the week ending 02 Apr 2026. This will be a “last” look at the US economy before quarterly earnings season “takeover”. 31 Mar 2026 - Jobs opening & labour turnover surveys (February). 31 Mar 2026 - US Consumer confidence (March). 01 Apr 2026 - ADP non-farm payroll (March). 01 Apr 2026 - US Retail sales (February). 02 Apr 2026 - Jobless claims - weekly & contin
The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended to be and do not constit
Focus On Insulation — Sectors With Power To Pass On Rising Costs
The start of the Iran conflict on February 28, 2026, has significantly altered the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ landscape. While historical patterns suggest that geopolitical shocks often lead to short-term volatility rather than long-term bear markets, the specific "transmission channels"—primarily oil prices and inflation—are dictating clear winners and losers across sectors. Sectors Likely to Benefit Energy: This is the most direct beneficiary. Brent crude has surged above $107 per barrel, driving a 21.7% gain in the sector since February. Investors are utilizing the "inflation playbook," as higher prices boost margins for oil producers and oilfield services. Defense & Aerospace: Heightened geopolitical tensions typically lead to increased military
Relief Rally Weekly: Stocks Snap 5-Week Slide as Oil Surges to $112; Earnings Season Kicks Off
Last Week's Recap 1. U.S. Market Summary: Stocks Snap 5-Week Slide as Oil Surges to $112 Relief rally: Major U.S. indexes gained 3–4% last week, snapping a five-week losing streak. Resurgent oil: U.S. crude climbed to ~$112/barrel Friday—highest since mid-2022—amid escalating Strait of Hormuz tensions. Golden rebound: $Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$ recovered March losses, rising nearly 4% to trade around $4,700 on last friday. Yields reverse course: Treasury yields slipped after four weeks of gains that pushed 10-year rates to eight-month highs. March decline: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ fell ~5% in March for back-to-back monthly losses;
The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended to be and do not constit
The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended to be and do not constit
The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended to be and do not constit
Q2 Won't Be "Straight Line Up". Look At Quality Growth And Energy Sector Strength
The disappointment of 2026 Q1 was largely driven by a "perfect storm" of geopolitical tension in the Middle East, a spike in Brent crude above $100/barrel, and a shift toward a "higher-for-longer" interest rate narrative. However, as we enter the first full week of April, the tone is shifting from panic to a "pensive" recovery. Q2 Market Outlook & Sentiment The consensus for Q2 is cautiously bullish. While Q1 felt like "catching a falling knife," analysts see strong support levels forming. The "TACO" Trade: Markets are increasingly pricing in a pivot by the administration (the "Trump Always Comes Off" trade) to prevent an equity meltdown. Earnings Growth: S&P 500 earnings are projected to grow by 19.1% in Q2, with 9 out of 11 sectors expected to show year-over-year growth. Sentimen
The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended to be and do not constit
March Review & April Outlook: Is the Bottom Finally In?
Stocks down. Bonds down. Gold down. March 2026 was the month the playbook stopped working.March delivered something rarely seen: a true indiscriminate selloff. Traditional safe havens and risk assets fell together, leaving investors with almost nowhere to shelter. The numbers were stark — $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ closed Q1 down 7.11%, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ off 4.63% — but the index figures only tell part of the story.$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ briefly touched $4,100, then reversed hard. Silver cratered 27% in a single session on January 30th. The assets you'd normally rotate into when equities wobble... wobbled right along with them.So what actually happened?The Month
The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended to be and do not constit
The week beginning 30 Mar 2026 marks the closing of Q1 2026 after Tuesday. US market sentiments this week should remain ‘sensitive’ due to the dual pressure of: Cooling technology sector. Persistent inflationary shocks, consequent to the US-Iran conflict, as it enters its 5th week. Investors are entering the week with a "risk-off" posture as US 10-year Treasury yield’s surge to 4.428% (see above) from 2.97% (on 27 Feb 2026), a month ago. While brent oil price has risen to an elevated $112.57 from $71.32 /barrel (on 27 Feb 2026) (see below). This effectively shifts US economy’s narrative from a "soft landing" toward fears of a pronounced stagflationary environment. US market is likely to remain in a defensive "wait-and-see" mode. As of 27 Mar 2026 endday This atmosphere of uncertainty will
How I Survive the Brutal Q1 Shakedown & My April 2026 Strategy 🌟🌟🌟As of April 1 2026, the market is catching its breath after a tough first quarter. The S&P500 has tumbled to 6,300, erasing its early year euphoria and marking a significant retreat from February highs. While March felt like a non stop horror movie for me, holding a diversified "bunker" of ETFs has been the difference between a total wipeout and a portfolio that is still remarkably in the green. The Hormuz Game: Did Trump Really Blink? I notice a shifting rhetoric from Trump. While he has set an April 6 deadline to "obliterate" Iran's energy infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz isn't reopened, he has simultaneously pivoted to an "America First" stance on security. Trump has publicly told NAT
The first quarter of the year has come to a close, and for many investors and market watchers, it ended with more questions than answers. Heading into the year, expectations were cautiously optimistic. Many believed the global economy had weathered the worst of the turbulence from the past few years. There was hope that easing inflation, stabilizing supply chains, and a gradual shift in monetary policy would provide the foundation for stronger market performance. However, Q1 proved to be far more challenging than anticipated. Markets experienced persistent volatility as investors navigated a complex mix of macroeconomic pressures, shifting central bank signals, geopolitical uncertainties, and uneven corporate earnings. Instead of the strong momentum many had hoped for, the quarter delivere