To The Moon

The week beginning 30 Mar 2026 marks the closing of Q1 2026 after Tuesday.

US market sentiments this week should remain ‘sensitive’ due to the dual pressure of:

• Cooling technology sector.

• Persistent inflationary shocks, consequent to the US-Iran conflict, as it enters its 5th week.

Investors are entering the week with a "risk-off" posture as US 10-year Treasury yield’s surge to 4.428% (see above) from 2.97% (on 27 Feb 2026), a month ago.

While brent oil price has risen to an elevated $112.57 from $71.32 /barrel (on 27 Feb 2026) (see below).

This effectively shifts US economy’s narrative from a "soft landing" toward fears of a pronounced stagflationary environment.

US market is likely to remain in a defensive "wait-and-see" mode.

As of 27 Mar 2026 endday

This atmosphere of uncertainty will keep investors glue to the $S&P 500(.SPX)$’s 200-day moving average, whether it will be able to withstand the ongoing geopolitical headlines and credit-related volatility. (see above)

US market has transitioned from a standard correction into a structural downtrend.

With the S&P 500 index below its 200‑day moving average, it means the environment has turned structurally more defensive.

Investors should lean toward risk management (eg: tighter stops, measured buying, sector rotation) rather than aggressive extrapolation of prior uptrend.

Last Week’s Reports.

Do you think the handful of US economic reports out last week (see below) had any meaningful impact on US market :

• Tue, 24 Mar 2026 - S&P Flash US Services PMI.

• Tue, 24 Mar 2026 - S&P Flash US Manufacturing PMI.

• Wed, 25 Mar 2026 - US Import Price index.

• Thu, 26 Mar 2026 - Jobless Claims - Weekly & Continuing.

• Fri, 27 Mar 2026 - US Consumer Sentiments (final).

S&P Global Flash Services & Manufacturing PMI.

Services PMI.

On 24 Mar 2026, the preliminary S&P Flash US Services PMI report for March 2026, slipped to 51.1 (an 11 month low), down from February 2026’s of 51.7 and market consensus of 52.0.

Report comes amid decelerating domestic and foreign new work.

Geopolitical tensions, including Middle East conflicts, contributed to cautious hiring and softer activity, pulling the composite PMI marginally lower by -0.6. (see below)

Manufacturing PMI.

At the same time, the preliminary S&P Flash US Manufacturing PMI report for March 2026, rose by +0.8 to 52.4, up from February 2026’s 51.6 and market expectations of 51.5, marking a 2-month high. (see above)

Production growth picked up, with new orders saw their strongest rise since October 2025, supported by stabilizing export demand after 8 months of decline.

The expansion was also partly fueled by firms stockpiling goods to hedge against war-related supply chain disruptions.

Summary.

Overall, the 2 PMI reports paint a mixed US economy with manufacturing providing lift but services (that constitutes ⅔ of US GDP) exhibits softening demand and rising inflation risks.

The March 2026 PMI reports indicate that the US economy is entering a period of fragile divergence, where industrial resilience is being offset by a cooling service sector and stubborn inflationary pressures.

US Import Price Index.

The US Import Price Index (IPI) report, published by US Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS), measures changes in the prices of goods & services imported into US, tracking the average price levels for imports across categories:

• Fuels.

• Non-fuel goods.

• Capital goods,

• Consumer products.

• Automotive items.

For February 2026, the IPI leaped 1.3%, marking the biggest monthly gain since March 2022.

The increase was almost double Wall Street estimates of 0.6% and January 2026’s 0.6%.

On a YoY basis, index rose 1.3%, marking the strongest annual reading since February 2025.

Report is signaling inflationary pressures were intensifying even before the full impact of recent geopolitical escalations in the Middle East was realized.

Jobless Claims.

US Department of Labour’s jobless reports on 26 Mar 2026, showed a labour market that remains relatively stable despite heightened geopolitical and inflationary headwinds.

Weekly claims.

For week ending 21 Mar 2026, US weekly jobless claims rose by +5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 210,000. (see below)

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 210,000 claims for the latest week. Claims have been tucked in a 201,000-230,000 range this year amid low layoffs.

While headline figure showed a slight uptick, the 4-week moving average (a less volatile metric) declined to 210,500, marking its 4th consecutive weekly drop.

This suggests that the rise in new filings was largely a result of seasonal adjustment factors rather than a genuine spike in layoffs.

Continuing claims.

For week ending 14 Mar 2026, US continuing claims fell by -32,000 to 1.819 million, making it the lowest level since May 2024.

On first read, it sounded like those who lost their jobs have found new employment relatively quickly.

However, some economists refuted that the decline could also be due to exhaustion of 26-week benefit eligibility rather than successful job placement.

US Consumer Sentiments.

US consumer sentiment fell more than expected in March 2026, touching a 3-month low, as war in the Middle ​East stoked inflation worries and cast a shadow over US economic outlook.

For March 2026, the US Consumer Sentiment Index report dropped to a final reading of 53.3, the lowest ​number since December 2025 and lower than its March’s preliminary reading of 55.5.

This decline effectively erased 4 months of steady gains as Americans react to the sudden economic shocks, triggered by the military conflict in Iran that in my humble opinion is set to worsen as Trump mulls land assault in Iran.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecasted the index would ease to 54.0. Wrong !

A month back, it was at 56.6 and was not too far from a record low touched in June 2022.

This sharp drop is emitting strong signals of eroding confidence and potential spending pullback, countering “resilient” labour data.

Risks are mounting that US Fed might stall interest rate cuts in 2026 and instead consider potential hikes by December.

What are the odds falls squarely on how the political scenario pans out in the Middle East during the month of April 2026?

Impending US Economic Reports.

As the war rages into the 5th week, the US economy continues to chug along with national debt breaching the $39 trillion mark already.

When the US-Iran conflict finally dies down and the costs of war tallied, US debt might balloon over the $40 trillion mark ?

How does a country spend its way out of an economic cesspool ?

This week will see the ‘important’ jobs report out for March 2026, along with others. (see below)

• Tue, 31 Mar 2026 - Jobs opening and Labour turnover surveys (JOLTs).

• Tue, 31 Mar 2026 - Consumer confidence (March).

• Wed, 01 Apr 2026 - US Retail sales (February).

• Wed, 01 Apr 2026 - ADP Non-farm payroll (March).

• Wed, 01 Apr 2026 - ISM Manufacturing (March).

• Thu, 02 Apr 2026 - Jobless claims - Weeky & Continuing.

• Thu, 02 Apr 2026 - US Deficit repot (February).

• Fri, 03 Apr 2026 - US Non-farm payroll (March).

Could you foresee positive shifts in market sentiment even if the US Non-farm payroll report or any report, for that matter - shows improvement in the midst of a war-torn narrative ? I cannot.

What Else For This Week ?

US stock-index futures fell, and oil prices surged again on Sunday, as investors are waking up to the reality that the economic effects of the Iran war are likely to last longer than first expected.

All 3 stock-index futures were off their session lows and fall further by -0.5% to -1.0%, late Monday.

Ongoing Negotiations.

Will Pakistan’s initiative to bridge the gapping gap between the US and Iran demands be successful as US troops build up just got a boost with US aircraft carrier the USS Tripoli arriving in the Middle East.

All signs are pointing to Trump initiating a land attack to seize control of Kharg Island, the heart of Iran's oil production.

Short Trading Week.

This coming Fri, 03 Apr 2026 is Good Friday, a public holiday in the US and the US market will be closed.

Quite certain that on the run up to Good Friday, US market will see (a) thinner liquidity and (b) choppy, headline‑driven trading, (c) with the holiday closure - compressing positioning, risk‑management flows, and macro reactions into 4 sessions.

No veteran traders would “buy the dip” on Thu, 02 Apr 2026, and remain fully exposed over the next 3 days where anything could happen to induce a US market crash by the time Monday trading resumes.

Readers, neither should you, especially when Mon, 06 Apr 2026 is the day when Trump’s extended ultimatum for Iran to keep Straits of Hormuz, expires. (see above)

No investor will want to be caught off guard, should a land attack break out.

Same for $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ ?

Likewise, I will not be buying the dip on META too this week despite its recent, major tumble. (see below)

Recently, META lost 2 important lawsuits.

Los Angeles.

• It lost its landmark “social media addiction” case when jury found design features on Instagram and related META platforms were negligently addictive and harmful to a young woman’s mental health.

• The jury attributed 70% of the blame to META and awarded multimillion‑dollar damages to the plaintiff.

New Mexico.

• The jury found Meta violated state consumer protection laws by concealing risks to children and using “unconscionable” practices.

• All the while, more than 40 state attorneys general and hundreds of private plaintiffs have active suits making similar allegations about youth mental‑health harms and addictive design.

Like any big US corporates with deep pockets, META has vowed to appeal against the verdict and fight the rulings in higher courts, negotiate selective settlements, and quietly make adjustments to reduce its legal risk, over time.

More important, the 2 lawsuits are deemed, not existential threats to META’s core ad and social‑graph business - not unless a wave of copycat verdicts forces broad, revenue‑damaging design changes.

However, analysts at Tigress Financial Partners and Morningstar are of the opinion that "second-order" effects of the Los Angeles and New Mexico trials will be primary concern this week.

The fear is that the 2 cases (and subsequently more) may motivate Congress to re-examine federal tech protections, fundamentally changing the "liability math" for the sector.

In short, this is only the beginning for META, agree ?

As of 27 Mar 2026 endday

META Cont’d Falling ?

Will defer to META’s technical indicators of (a) Simple Moving Averages, (b) MACD and (c) RSI to determine where it heads next.

Simple Moving Averages (SMA).

On Fri, 27 Mar 2026, META ended the week at $525.72 /share.

It was substantially below its 20-day SMA ($621.06), 50-day SMA ($643.56), and 200-day SMA ($687.60), a clear bearish setup and shows the stock is in a strong downtrend.

For this and next week, that means rallies are likely to meet overhead resistance unless META can reclaim at least the 20-day and 50-day SMA, that will act as heavy overhead resistance simultaneously.

MACD.

The MACD indicator reflects a rapid loss of momentum and a strong bearish shift.

The MACD line (-24.53) has plunged well below the Signal line (-15.16) and is accelerating deeper into negative territory below the Zero line.

The negative divergence of -9.37 confirms that the downward price movement is backed by strong selling pressure rather than a simple exhaustion of buyers.

The widening gap between the MACD and Signal lines suggests that the downward trend has not yet bottomed, pointing toward continued volatility or further downside for the upcoming sessions.

RSI.

The 14-day RSI at 22.55 is deep within the "oversold" territory, suggesting the selloff is stretched and META may be due for a technical rebound, for this week and next.

But oversold does not mean an immediate reversal; not when the Middle East turmoil is still active.

Personally, I will not consider buying until the outcome of 06 Apr 2026 temporary halt is clear. Will that be your strategy too ?

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• Do you think US will invade Iran, escalating Middle East tension to the next level and bring massive unrest to US market ?

• Do you think META will slip further, triggering a “Buy” opportunity.

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