Nasdaq Enters Technical Correction, Mag 7 -10%: Has Market Turned Bearish?
Amid rising oil prices, fading hopes for a Middle East ceasefire, and shifting fundamental narratives for tech giants, the three major indices have all moved lower. $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ , dragged down by tech stocks, has been the weakest and has officially entered a technical correction zone.
1. Uncertain War Outlook: Has “Sell the Rally” Replaced “Buy the Dip”?
Although President Trump has been trying to push the narrative that the Iran conflict is nearing an end, the market remains skeptical.
On Thursday, Iran issued a strong response, calling the ceasefire proposal a “third deception.” This statement significantly reduced expectations for a near-term peace deal, pushing oil prices higher and reigniting inflation concerns.
In the coming weeks, the market may face more pain.
For months, investors have been buying the dip, and it worked — largely because markets believed Trump would step in with supportive messaging. But now, that mechanism appears to be shifting.
👉 Instead, “sell the rally” seems to be the more effective strategy at the moment.
Meanwhile, all Mag 7 stocks have posted double-digit declines.
$Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$
2. Technical Pressure Still Points Lower
From a technical perspective, it’s clear why every rebound is being sold:
Momentum has turned downward; Price has broken below the 200-day EMA; MACD has turned bearish
Although RSI is approaching oversold levels, if the index breaks below 6400, there is limited support below
3. When to Buy?
From a fundamental perspective, the market likely needs a clear resolution to the conflict to restore risk appetite.
From a technical perspective, key levels to watch include:
Previous rally highs often turn into strong support during corrections. The pre-“Liberation Day” high may act as a key support level
For $S&P 500(.SPX)$ , next support levels are around 6300 and 6100
There are indeed many short-term risks, but over the longer term, this could resemble last year — a sharp drop followed by a sustained rally. It’s important to stay confident.
💬 Discussion:
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How do you view the Nasdaq entering a technical correction zone?
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Which Mag 7 stocks are worth buying the dip now, or should we wait for better entry points?
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Has the market turned bearish?
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Are you staying in cash and waiting to re-enter?
Leave your comments to win tiger coin!
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Maintaining a 15–20% cash reserve is mandatory. This isn't "sitting out"; it is holding a "long volatility" position. In a regime of $100+ oil and sticky inflation, cash allows you to capitalize on the "RSI 30 Washout" that historically marks the start of the next secular leg up.
On Thursday, Iran issued a strong response, calling the ceasefire proposal a “third deception.” This statement significantly reduced expectations for a near-term peace deal, pushing oil prices higher and reigniting inflation concerns.
In the coming weeks, the market may face more pain.
The Verdict: A "Risk-Off" Regime Change, Not a Structural Bear Market.
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The Verdict: Surgical Selection over Indexing; Prioritize "Self-Funded Growth."
Deploy a Staged Entry (initial 30% allocation). Alphabet (GOOGL) and Amazon (AMZN) are the primary "Buy" candidates due to compressed Forward P/Es and dominant Free Cash Flow (FCF) yields. However, Meta and Tesla face idiosyncratic regulatory and margin pressures; wait for a volume-backed test of their 200-day support before committing fresh capital.
The Verdict: A Necessary "Breadth Cleansing" from Liquidity to Quality.
The Nasdaq's 10.9% drawdown is a violent reversion to the mean. With only 28% of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200-day moving average, the "Magnificent" concentration had become a systemic risk. Until the VIX clears the 35–40 range (capitulation), this correction remains an orderly repricing rather than a bottom.
我现在的策略其实很简单：提高现金比例，等更明确的信号，比如战争缓和或者指数出现真正止跌结构，再慢慢加仓。现在贸然出手，很容易被反复“打脸”。