To The Moon

How I Survive the Brutal Q1 Shakedown & My April 2026 Strategy 

🌟🌟🌟As of April 1 2026, the market is catching its breath after a tough first quarter.  The S&P500 has tumbled to 6,300, erasing its early year euphoria and marking a significant retreat from February highs.  While March felt like a non stop horror movie for me, holding a diversified "bunker" of ETFs has been the difference between a total wipeout and a portfolio that is still remarkably in the green.

The Hormuz Game: Did Trump Really Blink?

I notice a shifting rhetoric from Trump.  While he has set an April 6 deadline to "obliterate" Iran's energy infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz isn't reopened, he has simultaneously pivoted to an "America First" stance on security.

Trump has publicly told NATO and Asian allies to "go get your own oil" if they are not willing to assist in "decapitating" the Iranian threat. He has said that because the US is now energy independent, it is no longer the US Navy's sole duty to keep the world's most critical waterway for free.

Trump's message is : If you want the oil, you provide the security or buy American.  This tactical withdrawal has sent war risk insurance premiums for the Strait skyrocketing to 5% to 10% of vessel value as the world realises the "policeman" might be clocking out.

Q1 Post Mortem: The Survivors and the Fallen

The Damage: US equities have just wrapped up their toughest quarter in years.  The S&P500 failed to hold the 6,900 resistance level in early March, triggering automated selling that dragged the index down 7.3% for the quarter.

The Resilience:  Despite the "bloody" month, my portfolio anchored in Singapore stocks has remained up overall.  The Straits Times Index (STI) has been a regional safe haven, reaching new all time highs above 5,000 in March while US markets remained choppy.

Oversold Opportunity: Microsoft 

$Microsoft(MSFT)$  has been caught in the growth sector crossfire.  It is currently the worst performing Mag 7 stock of 2026, down 25% YTD and hitting its lowest levels since the 2025 tariff shocks.

Why Microsoft Fell So Badly 

The "bloody" March sell off was driven by a perfect storm of concerns that hit Microsoft's core growth thesis:

The Capex Trap:  Investors are spooked by record breaking capital expenditures, which reached USD 37.5 billion in the last reported quarter alone.  This is a massive 66% YoY increase.  There is a growing fear that Microsoft is overbuilding data centre capacity faster than it can generate a return on that investment.

Decelerating Azure Growth: While still growing at 38% to 39%, Azure's growth has subtly decelerated for 3 straight quarters.  More concerningly, cloud gross margins declined to 67% and a guided lower to 65% as the cost of AI infrastructure begins to bite.

Copilot Fatigue: Sentiment has soured on the Copilot narrative.  Early adoption data suggests that only 3% of commercial customers are paid subscribers.  This has led to fears that AI agents may not monetise as quickly as the USD 3.4 trillion valuation previously assumed.

Geopolitical Friction:  Like the rest of the market, Microsoft is caught in the April 6 "war premium" crossfire.  Rising Brent Crude prices and the potential for further escalation of the Iran war, have triggered a broad rotation out of high multiple tech stocks and into defensive "safe havens".

Is This A Great Buying Opportunity for Microsoft?

The consensus among analysts remains a Strong Buy.  However technical indicators suggest that we may be catching a "falling knife" in the short term.

Deeply Oversold: Microsoft's RSI recently hit 22.26, its lowest reading in over a decade.  Historically such extreme oversold conditions have preceded significant bounces once selling exhaustion sets in.

Compressed Valuation: Shares are trading at 21x to 22x forward earnings, their lowest multiple since 2016 and a massive discount compared to their 5 year average.

Analyst Outlook:While some targets have been cut (eg UBS from USD 600 to USD 510), the average 12 month target still sits around USD 590 to USD 612, implying a potential upside of 60% or more from current levels.

The Strategy:  Accumulate, Don't Chase 

For long term investors, this pullback is being viewed as a once in a decade chance to own Microsoft at a reasonable price.  However with April 29 earnings report looming and the April 6 deadline from Trump on Iran, it is prudent to accumulate slowly rather than going all in.  It is better to see if MSFT tests support at the USD 325 to USD 350 level before the next leg up.

My Core Bunker Strategy: SPYM, ES3 and FXI ETFs

To survive a "bloody" March with the Iran War that sent the stock markets reeling, my portfolio relied on these 3 distinct layers of protection.  While the Mag 7 faced a brutal revaluation, these 3 ETFs provided a diversification needed to keep my overall balance in the green.

$SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF(SPYM)$ :  My Core US Growth Engine 

SPYM provides me with a exposure to the 500 largest US companies .  It is my "bulletproof vest" for long term US growth.

Top 5 holdings include Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple , Amazon and Meta Platforms.

Performance: Down 6.7% YTD, tracking the broader index's retreat.

Expense ratio: 0.02% - it is the lowest among competing ETFs.

Dividend Yield: 1.3%.

Target Price:  Analysts see a recovery target of USD 85.00 once the April 6 geopolitical cloud clears.

$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$  - My Singapore Defensive Anchor

STI ETF represents 30 of Singapore's best blue chip companies in just 1 trade. It has been a global standout in 2026, acting as a safe haven while US tech crumbled.

Top Holdings: DBS, OCBC, UOB, Singtel and Jardine Matheson.

Performance: Up an impressive 15% YTD.  The STI hit all time highs above 5,000 in March.

Expense ratio: 0.30%.

Dividend Yield: A juicy tax free 3.48%.

Target Price: SGD 5.20.

As global capital flees to Singapore, STI ETF remains the steady hand.

FXI $iShares China Large-Cap ETF(FXI)$  - My Tactical China Play

FXI gives me access to the top 50 of the best and strongest Chinese companies listed in the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

Top Holdings: Alibaba, Tencent, Meituan, China Construction Bank and JD.com.

Performance: Down 8.8% YTD, a high upside contrarian play for Q2 26.

Expense ratio: 0.74%

Dividend Yield: 2.64%

Target Price: USD 42.00.  FXI is expected to snap back if the April 6 deadline resolves without a full scale energy war in the Middle East.

Concluding Thoughts: The Discipline of the "Wait"

In a market that currently feels like a series of Tomahawk missiles and April 6 ultimatums, the greatest skill isn't timing the bottom.  It is having the courage and patience to stay the course.

As the legendary Charlie Munger famously said :

"The big money is not in the buying and the selling but in the waiting."

Waiting does not mean doing nothing.  It means having the discipline to let my dividends compound while the S&P 500 sorts out its fever.  It means watching Microsoft hit deep value levels and having the patience to wait for the RSI to confirm a bottom before investing.

Q1 2026 was the test.  Q2 2026 is the reward for those who stayed the course.

As Charlie Munger reminded us that the "big money" isn't made by those who panic sell at 6,300 but by those who have the discipline to sit on their hands and let time do the heavylifting.

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