Tonight FOMC + Big Tech Earnings: Can OpenAI’s Impact Be Diminished?
Tonight at 2 PM ET, the FOMC will announce its decision. Rates are expected to remain unchanged at 3.5–3.75%, marking the third consecutive pause, which is almost fully priced in. What’s really keeping the market on edge is not the number itself, but the Fed’s forward stance. $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$
Will Powell Stay on as a Governor?
Powell’s term as Chair ends on May 15. He has hinted that he could remain as a Fed Governor until January 2028 after stepping down as Chair.
Today, the Senate Banking Committee will vote on Kevin Warsh’s nomination, and the key procedural hurdles have already been cleared.
This could be Powell’s last press conference as Chair. The market is waiting for one signal: Will he stay, or leave entirely?
Goldman Pushes Back: Market Pricing Warsh as Dovish — Maybe Not
After the DOJ dropped its investigation into Powell, OIS rates fell, as the market interpreted Warsh’s potential appointment as implying more room for rate cuts this year.
But Goldman’s Jan Hatzius team directly stated: “We are less confident in this.”
Warsh and Powell share very similar core views on inflation and rate policy.
In Senate hearings, Warsh emphasized trimmed mean inflation, which is fundamentally aligned with Powell’s preferred core PCE measure.
A new Chair may not be more willing than Powell to push for rate cuts if disagreements arise within the FOMC.
Goldman forecasts headline PCE (March) expected to be above 3%; core PCE by end-2026: projected at 2.6%
Macro Backdrop: Market Shifting from FOMO to FAFO
OpenAI failed to meet its 2025 revenue target, and the milestone of 1 billion weekly active users may not be achieved; the CFO warned IPO readiness is insufficient.
The entire AI chain sold off: CoreWeave -5.83%, ORCL -4%+, VRT -5.4%, AMD -3.41%, NVDA -1.59%
U.S. 30-year Treasury yield rose to 4.97% (highest since March 27), with options markets hedging scenarios where the 10-year breaks above 5%
$Brent Last Day Financial - main 2606(BZmain)$ at $110/barrel (Iran tensions), shifting the inflation narrative from “cooling” to “re-accelerating”
Discussion
FOMC + big tech: what are you most worried about?
Goldman says Warsh ≈ Powell, but the market has already priced in a dovish Warsh. If Warsh takes over and does not cut rates, will equities come under pressure?
The shift from OpenAI-driven FOMO to FAFO, will it trigger a broader pullback in the AI narrative after earnings season?
Leave your comments to win tiger coins~
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FOMC + big tech: what are you most worried about?
Goldman says Warsh ≈ Powell, but the market has already priced in a dovish Warsh. If Warsh takes over and does not cut rates, will equities come under pressure?
The shift from OpenAI-driven FOMO to FAFO, will it trigger a broader pullback in the AI narrative after earnings season?
Leave your comments to win tiger coins~
On Kevin Warsh, I think the market is too optimistic. He’s not meaningfully more dovish than Powell, so if cuts don’t materialize, equities could face a sharp repricing — especially with positioning already stretched.
My bigger concern is the macro shift. With OpenAI missing expectations and yields rising, the market is moving from FOMO to FAFO. If growth and liquidity both weaken, the AI trade could see a broader de-rating rather than just a short-term pullback.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerClub
As of late April 2026, the intersection of the FOMC decision, shifting Fed leadership, and high-stakes tech earnings creates a volatile environment. The biggest market worry is a "stagflationary" trap, where persistent inflation—exacerbated by energy shocks—limits the Fed's ability to cut rates despite a slowing economy, threatening the lofty valuations of Artificial Intelligence (AI) leaders.
While Goldman Sachs sees structural similarities between Kevin Warsh and Jerome Powell, market sentiment is divided on how a transition to Warsh would unfold.
OpenAI Performance: OpenAI has reportedly missed internal goals for revenue and user growth. Rivals such as Anthropic and Google's Gemini are gaining market share, particularly in coding and enterprise applications.
Primary Concern: The Federal Reserve faces challenges. A "war-linked" energy spike has caused inflation to re-accelerate, limiting the possibility of rate cuts.
FOMO - Fear of Missing Out is the frantic urge to buy into a trend because everyone else is getting rich, driven by emotion, hype & fear of missing out.
FAFO - Find Out - is the moment of reckoning. It is what happens when the hype meets reality & the consequences of reckless decisions or overvaluations finally hit the fan.
FAFO is the consequence phase of the FOMO phase.
A good example of this is $NVIDIA(NVDA)$
While OpenAI is the brain of the AI movement, NVIDIA is an example of the FOMO to FAFO pipeline.
FOMO Phase : In 2023 to 2024, NVIDIA stock became super hot. The focus was on growth.
FAFO Phase: NVIDIA is currently the biggest candidate for FAFO. If Big Tech like Microsoft, Meta decide that their big investments are not yielding profits, they may cut NVIDIA's orders.
If NVIDIA's earnings are not good enough, it may trigger a selloff.
@Tiger_comments @Tiger_SG @TigerStars
The transition from "Fear Of Missing Out" to "Finding Out" (FAFO) is a significant threat to the AI narrative this quarter. The honeymoon phase for AI is ending; investors are now looking for "Return on Investment" (ROI) rather than just "Innovation." If earnings show that enterprise AI adoption is slower or more expensive than promised, we will see a "broader pullback" as capital rotates out of high-flying tech and into defensive value plays like Energy or Consumer Staples.
Equities will come under severe pressure if Kevin Warsh takes over and fails to deliver the expected cuts. The market is currently "pricing for perfection" regarding a dovish transition. If Warsh prioritizes "inflation stability" over market liquidity and keeps rates higher for longer, the current P/E multiples of AI stocks will look unsustainable. A "no-cut" Warsh would likely trigger a 5% to 10% correction in the S&P 500 as the "dovish pivot" trade unwinds.
I am most worried about the "Magnificent Seven" failing to justify their massive capital expenditures. While revenue is growing, the market is beginning to punish companies that show even a slight dip in operating margins. If Big Tech cannot prove that AI spending is translating into immediate, high-margin software profits rather than just endless hardware costs, we risk a "valuation reset" regardless of how the Fed acts.
But Goldman’s Jan Hatzius team directly stated: “We are less confident in this.”
Warsh and Powell share very similar core views on inflation and rate policy.
如果沃什真的上来但不如市场预期那样鸽，叠加AI财报季稍微不及预期，那这一波很可能不只是回调，而是一次估值体系的再定价。