S&P 500 Concludes Best Month Since 2020! Chase New High or Take Profits?
April's final session: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed at all-time highs (+1%), $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ +0.89%. Full month: S&P 500 +10.4%, Nasdaq +14.8% — the strongest single-month return since the post-COVID rebound in 2020.
Based on historical data, if multiple new highs are reached in April, the subsequent market performance is usually relatively strong.
But Goldman and BofA Are Both Flashing Yellow
Goldman Sachs Macro (April 30):
S&P rallied 14% from the late-March low to record highs, but the median S&P 500 constituent is still 13% below its 52-week high — market breadth is at its narrowest in decades outside the Dot-Com Bubble.
The Momentum factor is up +25% YTD, with hedge fund Momentum net exposure near 5-year highs. The divergence is extreme: semiconductors +30% since the Iran War (Feb 28), but equal-weight S&P -1%, Consumer Staples -5%, Health Care -9%.
BofA Securities (week of April 20-26):
As the S&P hits new highs, clients have posted 6 consecutive weeks of single-stock outflows ($3.9B last week). Institutional clients were net sellers in 5 of the last 6 weeks. Rolling 4-week net flow: -$1.2B.
But the good news is: “Clients bought Tech stocks (after selling them for 4-weeks) ahead of a busy Tech earnings week.”
Will the bull run continue into may?
Goldman flags that historically, after breadth narrows this sharply, 3-6 month drawdown risk increases significantly. But the fundamental case is real — $725B in confirmed CapEx, supply-constrained storage, and Big Tech earnings that beat on every line.
Do you chase the new high or wait for a pullback?
Which sector do you think catches up?
Leave your comments to win at least 5 tiger coins~
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My take: bull run likely continues into May, but leadership broadens and volatility rises.
I would not chase index highs here. Prefer buying pullbacks or rotating into laggards.
Catch-up sectors:
• Utilities / power infrastructure, the hidden AI backbone
• Industrials, cooling, electrical equipment, grid upgrades
• Healthcare, defensive growth at better valuations
• Financials, if rates stay higher for longer
• Selective small caps, if breadth expands again
Mega-cap AI still leads, but second-order beneficiaries may offer better risk/reward now. The next leg up may look broader, not just higher.
April was simply unreal. The S&P500 didn't just break records. It simply sprinted up Everest without stopping for oxygen.
The reality for me? I am choosing Sanity.
While my heart wants to chase the thrill and my head wants to wait for the 5% discount that might never come, I have decided to stick to my "Boring Brilliance" strategy.
I am staying the course with the heavy hitters : $SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF(SPYM)$ which tracks 500 of the best & strongest US companies and $STI ETF(ES3.SI)$ - Singapore's creme de la creme blue chips companies.
These 2 ETFs are not flashy. They don't post to the moon memes but they show up to work every single day.
My plan for May is to let the Pros stress over the daily candles. I am just letting my Dollar Cost Averaging or DCA do the heavy lifting.
If the market hits new highs - Great. If not, my next DCA just got a May discount.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Tiger_SG
I have always been bullish on tech and the semiconductor industries and think they will do well for the long term. Staples and healthcare are essential with inelastic demand. We don’t know how long the economy will hold up but fears of stagflation has been there for the past 2 years. If stagflation happens, staples and healthcare will catch up.
@Kaixiang @DiAngel @SPOT_ON @LuckyPiggie @Success88 @SR050321 @Fenger1188 @Universe宇宙 come join
简单说，现在不是牛市结束，而是进入“更难赚钱的阶段”。选错方向，可能指数涨你不涨；但选对结构，机会其实还在。
The bullish case remains strong: AI capex is real, hyperscaler spending is accelerating, and earnings from GOOG, AMZN and MSFT continue to validate infrastructure demand. That supports semis, memory and data centre supply chains.
But narrow breadth is a warning sign. If leadership gets crowded, even strong markets can see a healthy 5 to 10% reset.
Would I chase?
Not aggressively at highs. I would scale in on dips rather than FOMO buy breakouts.
Catch-up sectors:
1. MU / storage
2. VRT / power-cooling infra
3. Industrials tied to grid upgrades
4. Select software names that monetise AI, not just spend on it
My base case: higher by year-end, bumpier in May.