SpaceX Lists Tomorrow! Up or Down on Day One? Predict and Win Tiger Coins!
Tomorrow, SpaceX officially begins trading on Nasdaq under the ticker $Space Exploration Technologies(SPCX)$.
According to Bloomberg, the IPO has been heavily oversubscribed. The offering is priced at $135 per share, with 555.6 million shares issued, implying a valuation of roughly $1.8 trillion — effectively making it the largest IPO in history.
The community has already split into two camps.
Some say it's a no-brainer: an oversubscribed IPO almost always means strong demand at the open.
Others are more honest: "Whenever I don't buy, it goes up. Whenever I buy, it goes down."
And some compared SpaceX IPO with $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$
Prediction Time: Will SpaceX Close Up or Down on Day One?
Today's SpaceX isn't just a rocket company anymore.
It's a combination of: Rockets, Satellites, AI Infrastructure
The company recently signed a computing agreement with Google worth $920 million per month through 2029, totaling roughly $30 billion, and has previously disclosed hyperscale AI partnerships similar to Anthropic.
In other words, buyers aren't just purchasing Falcon rockets and Starlink.
They're also buying an AI infrastructure story.
What Happens After Day One?
1.The Honeymoon Phase
Oversubscription + scarcity + Musk's following could easily drive an emotional first-day surge. At this stage, sentiment matters far more than fundamentals.
2.The Reality Check Phase
Eventually, the market will return to familiar questions: How does SpaceX fund its massive capital spending? When does xAI become profitable?
Community Discussion
🚀 Relative to the $135 IPO price, what's your prediction?
Opens +30% or more?
Opens +10% to +30%?
Trades near the IPO price?
Or breaks below issue price?
💰 Are you buying on day one, or watching from the sidelines?
📈 One year from now, do you think SPCX will be above or below $135?
Drop your prediction below to win tiger coins~
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Rough probabilities:
Above $135: 60%
Below $135: 40%
The bull case is that:
Starlink keeps compounding revenue growth.
Investors continue assigning premium multiples to AI, space, and infrastructure assets.
Index inclusion creates sustained institutional ownership.
The bear case is that:
The IPO enthusiasm fades.
Lockup expirations increase supply.
The market decides the valuation got too far ahead of fundamentals.
My prediction: SPCX opens around $165–180 (+22% to +33%) and finishes its first year around $170–220, assuming the broader market remains supportive. That's bullish, but not nearly as bullish as some of the projections circulating right now.
SPCX with a Pied Piper CEO in tow should do well to close as high as +68%; if not higher by the time Friday trading calls it a day.
SPCX following week's movement in US exchange, will rise & fall in tandem based on Trump's pressure escalating tactics on Iran. And how far the former first civilisation country resolve & resilience will be put to the test.
Is Trump willing to gamble his mid-term election away by raising yet another war on Iran.
The path for SPCX is definitively up:
- Day 1: Opens +10% to +30%. The deal is heavily oversubscribed. With a tight 4% free float, supply scarcity will spark an immediate opening pop over $135.
- Strategy: Buying Day One. Waiting means missing immediate index catalysts. Fast-tracked MSCI inclusion on June 13 makes global passive funds forced buyers, protecting your downside.
- 1-Year View: Above $135. Near-term xAI capex is heavy, but Starlink anchors the valuation with highly profitable recurring revenue (10.3M subscribers at a 63% EBITDA margin).
That said, I think the first-day rally may be the easy part. Once the initial excitement fades, traders will likely start taking profits, and the market will shift focus to valuation, capital spending needs, and how fast the AI-related businesses can actually scale into profits. A pullback in the days after listing would not surprise me.
Personally, I won’t be chasing it on day one. I expect a strong initial surge followed by a meaningful correction as early buyers lock in gains. Longer term, I still like the underlying assets, but I’d rather wait for a more attractive entry after the hype settles.
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