To The Moon

Gold is still wearing the crown. (period !)

However, the market has just been taught a lesson and reminded (everyone) that even a runaway bull can stumble hard.

On Wed, 24 Jun 2026, Spot gold prices were sharply lower after the close on Wednesday, as (a) a firmer US dollar, (b) aggressive post-Fed’s interest rate repricing and (c) easing oil-supply fears outweighed residual haven demand tied to the US-Iran situation.

Spot gold plummeted more than -3% during the day, struggling to hold the psychologically significant $4,000 mark and trading around $3,980.20 per ounce (with spot gold settling near $3,998.00 at the time of Kitco post composition). (see below)

The broad selloff pushed gold futures to their lowest level since November 2025, mirroring broader weakness across other (i) rate-sensitive hard assets and (ii) cryptocurrencies.

This kind of volatility does not automatically end a bull market.

Gold has already absorbed a near -30% correction from its January 2026 highs.

History has shown that deep drawdowns can still sit comfortably inside major long-term uptrends.

The Catalysts.

(1) The Hawkish Fed under Kevin Warsh.

Gold’s downward trajectory was primarily driven by macro shifts stemming from US Fed’s FOMC 17 Jun 2026 meeting.

Although the central bank kept the Fed funds rate status quo at 3.50% - 3.75%, its official statement placed a stern focus on elevated inflation and provided a direct price-stability signal.

Market participants responded by aggressively pricing in a "higher-for-longer" monetary policy path.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, expectations are now leaning toward an imminent rate hike as early as September 2026 (see above), with further potential tightening slated for December 2026. (see below)

This hawkish shift propelled the US dollar index to its highest level in more than a year, dramatically raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

(2) Middle East Geopolitics.

I am aware that this topic has been talked about to its death.

Unfortunately it is still “relevant” as events are only beginning to unfold with Trump telling one story while Iran has a totally tangent narrative at times.

The geopolitical premium that had previously underpinned gold prices has began to unwind.

The tense situation surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial maritime corridor handling roughly 20% of global crude oil flows has shifted from an acute risk of outright closure to a fragile reopening trade.

Following a MOU between the US and Iran, recent shipping data confirmed that limited transits have resumed.

The de-escalation dismantled the immediate oil-supply shock premium, dragging Brent crude down -3.8% to $73.87 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) into the low-$70s.

The cooling of energy prices mitigated immediate inflation fears, weakening the safe-haven impulse for gold just as dollar strength intensified.

The -28% Correction in Historical Context.

Despite the pain of gold's roughly -28% to -30% drop from its record highs established in January 2026 (see below), market experts urge investors to keep the price action in perspective.

Spot Gold - Past 12 months

According to Solomon Global, MD, Paul Williams - he notes that major corrections are standard features of long-term commodity bull cycles rather than signs of structural demise.

Historical precedents have reveal similar patterns: (see below)

The 1970s Cycle:

• Gold plunged by approximately -45% from its mid-decade highs down to its 1976 lows, only to stage a massive rally to new record highs by 1980.

The 2008 Financial Crisis:

• Gold experienced a sharp -30% decline amid systemic liquidations before recovering robustly to capture fresh records in 2011.

Gold vs Oil prices : 1987 to 2026

Williams highlights that core pillars backing the long-term gold investment case remain entirely intact.

This includes:

• Robust central bank purchasing.

• Persistent geopolitical uncertainties.

• Elevated global sovereign debt levels.

Current short-term declines are instead a byproduct of:

• Profit-taking.

• Shifting interest rate expectations.

• Immediate currency movements.

Note : Even at these corrected levels, gold maintains a positive performance of nearly 20% over the past 12 months.

The Techncial Guide.

Knowing these historical tumbles help investors to evaluate recent critical floor levels.

History has shown that long-term bull markets can endure a -30% corrections and analysts are (now) mapping out the exact technical boundaries where current selloff must stabilize to replicate past recoveries.

Back to Wed, 24 Jun 2026 :

• Market analyst , Muhammad Umair identifies the $3,950 - $4,000 band as a pivotal support area for spot gold.

• A breakdown below $3,950 would expose deeper downside targets at $3,850.

• In contrast, some other analysts caution that a broader retreat to $3,700 an ounce remains possible before finding a definitive floor.

For the bulls to reclaim control and signal that the long-term bull market isn't over, they must propel prices past the immediate resistance of $4,000 and target a breach of the $4,350 overhead resistance region to open a path toward $4,500.

The GDXJ ETF Framework

Above technical lines track physical gold prices, but ‘veteran’ investors will monitor mining stocks to gauge the broader momentum instead.

This is because miners have fixed operating costs. As such, their stock prices act as a leveraged play on the price of metals.

When physical metals hit key turning points, small junior mining stocks experience the most drastic price swings.

This brings the focus directly to $VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF(GDXJ)$, an ETF designed to track this exact basket of small-cap, junior mining equities.

Looking at the broader annual picture provides a stark contrast between short-term spot market pain and longer-term operational realities:

(1) The 12-Month Performance Base:

• Paul Williams points out that even at Wednesday's severely corrected prices, gold maintains a positive performance of nearly +20% over the past 12 months.

• This means that over a longer annual horizon, the core business landscape for mining companies has remained structurally positive compared to the previous year.

(2) The Potential Re-Emerging:

• The immediate -28% drop from January 2026 peaks have caused severe short-term liquidations across the sector.

• If gold holds its ground at the $3,950 - $3,700 price floor, matching the setups before the massive 1980 and 2011 rallies, the long term uptrend stays alive.

For the GDXJ ETF, the gap between (a) a strong 20% YoY gain in gold and (b) heavily discounted small mining stocks offers a chance to buy before the next major rally.

Is It Really ?

Having read quite a handful of written posts, I realized that sometimes, some of the posts might be a little over enthusiastic in delivery.

Case in point, the posts shared here is from kitco.com - a global web portal & multimedia platform dedicated to precious metals, mining, and commodities.

I sensed that its afterthoughts veers towards optimism.

Instead of taking the posts wholesale, I looked at its technical indicators of (a) Simple moving averages (SMAs), (b) MACD and (c) RSI.

Below is what I have gathered. (see below)

As of 24 Jun 2026 end day

Simple Moving Averages.

GDXJ ended Wed, 24 Jun 2026 at $96.08 per unit, lower than all its SMAs of 20-day ($107.41), 50-day ($115.78) and 200-day ($114.67).

It means the ETF is trading below its short-, medium-, and long-term averages with momentum leaning bearish and the 3 SMAs (now) acting as overhead resistance.

Looking at the TA chart, GDXJ is on the verge of a “Death cross” formation, should it dips further.

MACD.

Both MACD line (-3.78) and Signal line (-3.49) are below the Zero line, implying the ETF is still in a bearish momentum regime, trading with negative trend pressure.

With the MACD line also below the Signal line, further confirming that downside momentum is still dominant and the recent price action has not yet reversed into a convincing bullish setup.

The negative Divergence (-0.29) points to a trajectory that is at best in a weak, fragile recovery phase, with no clear sign of a durable upside turn.

In short, GDXJ is still (a) below trend, (b) still losing momentum, and (c) still needs a clean MACD crossover plus a move back above Zero line, before the chart improves meaningfully.

RSI.

With its 14-day RSI coming in at 36.96, the ETF is weak, but not oversold, but momentum is still tilted bearish.

My viewpoints : (mine only)

It is undisputable that gold has a good run for the past 3 years. (see below)

Its trajectory has been unstoppable since the beginning of 2024, peaking at $5,594.82 per ounce on 29 Jan 2026. Yes, it has cooled to around $4,000 per ounce since. (see above)

On Wednesday the different US markets were a mixed:

• US 10-year Treasury yield slipped to 4.41%,

• US stock exchange’s 3 major indexes - (a) The Dow rose +0.4%, the S&P 500 fell by -0.1%, and the Nasdaq dropped by -0.4%.

• Even with crude prices down and the Straits re-opened, oil stocks are still low, so the physical oil market is not back to normal.

That leaves a key question for gold - if the Fed stays higher for longer and Treasury yields keep rising, will gold stay under pressure ?

Will the latest disruption in the Strait of Hormuz on Thu, 25 Jun 2026 to a Singapore registered vessel (see below), quickly bring back safe-haven demand and remind the market that gold still shines when risk returns?

Agree ?

Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks.

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• Do you think Gold prices will rise higher back to the $4,000 level if peace at the Straits remains elusive ?

• Do you think strategic dip buy into GDXJ is the long term investment plan for this stable metal ?

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