INTC Q2 Earnings Con'td To Beat Wall St ?
Wall Street just delivered another vote of confidence for $Intel(INTC)$ ahead of one of the company's biggest catalysts of the year.
Susquehanna recently raised its price target on INTC stock to $115 from $80 while maintaining a "Hold" rating.
The firm is arguing that INTC’s Q2 2026 earnings are shaping up better than previously expected.
The firm's channel checks point to (a) stronger server CPU demand and (b) healthier PC builds than anticipated, giving investors fresh optimism just days before INTC reports earnings on Thu, 23 Jul 2026.
Upgrade comes after a volatile stretch for the semiconductor giant.
INTC have pulled back sharply from its June 2026’s highs as investors decided to locked in profits across AI-related chip stocks.
Big question now is whether recent weakness offers a buying opportunity, OR whether expectations remain too high heading into earnings.
Cooling INTC, High Expectations.
INTC has been one of the semiconductor sector's biggest winners in 2026 (so far) despite its recent correction.
Stock has surged roughly +185% YTD.
After soaring during H1 2026, Intel hit a 52-week high of $142.35 in June before running into heavy profit-taking.
Shares have dropped about -21% over the past month and now trade roughly -25% below the peak as investors have rotated out of high-flying AI names, amid a broader semiconductor selloff.
Susquehanna believes INTC’s Q2 demand has held up better than expected, particularly in INTC's server CPU business, that continues to benefit from growing interest in agentic AI workloads.
However, the firm also warned that memory market weakness could weigh on PC demand during H2 2026.
This has prompted INTC to prioritize its limited wafer capacity toward higher-margin server processors. It makes economic sense - no ?
INTC's Solid AI Story
Like other tech giants, INTC will report its quarterly earnings after US market closes on Thu, 23 Jul 2026.
Wall Street is expecting:
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Earnings per share of $0.22 per share. This will be a dramatic improvement from a loss of -$0.10 a share in the year-ago period.
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Revenue of approximately $14.45 billion.
Above estimates are largely in-line with INTC management's prior guidance of $13.8 - $14.8 billion in revenue and non-GAAP earnings of $0.20 per share.
And the company is entering latest quarter, with solid momentum after delivering a major Q1 2026 surprise.
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It posted adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.29, well ahead of consensus estimate of $0.01.
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Revenue climbed +7% YoY to $13.6 billion.
Looking ahead:
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Options pricing is bracing for a roughly 15% move following earnings.
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Valuation will leave little room for disappointment if management delivers cautious guidance.
Investors will closely watch management's outlook for:
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Server CPU demand and PC market trends.
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Foundry progress.
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Management's commentary regarding enterprise AI demand and capital spending
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H2 2026. This is especially important. Investors only have to look at what happened to $Netflix(NFLX)$ when its management reported a ‘weaker than expected’ guidance.
Like me, investors will want reassurance that INTC's turnaround remains on schedule and that its manufacturing investments are beginning to translate into sustainable financial improvements.
AI & Foundry Biz - Continual Expansion ?
INTC has continued strengthening its long-term AI strategy.
The company recently expanded its partnership with $Alphabet(GOOG)$ Google Cloud to deploy Gemini Enterprise across INTC's workforce while integrating agentic AI tools into chip development.
Google Cloud is also increasing computing capacity available to INTC's engineering teams to help accelerate semiconductor design.
At the same time, manufacturing progress keeps increasing at INTC.
Industry reports indicate that INTC has improved the yields of its more advanced 18A process up to about 85%, close to the best yields in the market from $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$.
The company has also won more foundry and advanced packaging designs from Big Tech firms, while the US government's CHIPS Act helps advance domestic manufacturing ambitions.
These initiatives are a core part of INTC's resuscitation plan, with management striving to make the company a market leader in chip design and one of the world's biggest contract manufacturers.
If readers are interested to find out the latest collaborations between INTC & its partners, refer to my 11 Jun 2026’s post. Click here ! for details.
Wall Street’s Split Views.
Despite Susquehanna's higher price target, Wall Street remains divided on how to value INTC.
Based on 45 analysts with coverage, INTC overall has a consensus "Moderate Buy" rating and average price target of $108.68.
As of 21 Jul 2026 closing of $105.45, it implies modest potential upside of +3% from current levels; that is very doable if you asked me.
Other firms are more optimistic about INTC includes:
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$HSBC Holdings PLC(HSBC)$ recently doubled its target price to $200 and maintain a "Buy" rating. The bank argues that INTC’s foundry business is becoming a credible alternative to $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ and could unlock substantial long-term value.
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KeyBanc also lifted its target to $155, citing accelerating demand for INTC’s server CPUs tied to agentic AI and growing confidence in INTC's manufacturing roadmap.
Not everyone is convinced though.
Rosenblatt keeps a "Sell" rating on INTC even after raising its price target to $65, warning that the company still faces big risks in building out its manufacturing and chip-making foundry business.
More Facts.
(1) Surging SOX Index.
Semiconductor stocks have staged an impressive rebound on Tue, 21 Jul 2026 as investors return to AI-related names ahead of a busy week of earnings.
The $Philadelphia Semiconductor Index(SOX)$ has surged nearly +5%, with broad-based gains across INTC, MU, MRVL, AMD & NVDA, and other chipmakers helping to lift the broader Nasdaq.
The rally appears to reflect renewed optimism following last week's sector-wide correction, improving sentiment surrounding AI infrastructure spending.
Investors are also positioning ahead of several closely watched technology earnings reports.
(2) 1st Paying Customer.
On Tue, 21 Jul 2026 , it was reported that Cybersecurity firm $Fortinet(FTNT)$ will use INTC’s foundry services to produce its next-generation security chip. (see below)
FTNT will be INTC’s foundry first corporate customer, marking a win for INTC under CEO Lip-Bu Tan, who took over the chipmaker in March 2025.
FTNT’s chip, SP6, will be manufactured on the Intel 4 process, an INTC representative added.
Although FTNT does not have the “same” name recognition of AAPL, TSLA or any of the hyperscalers, nevertheless it is operating in a hot market due to the heightened demand for advanced security in a world increasingly dominated by AI.
To me, a commercial customer is a paying customer. INTC has to start from somewhere right, after all the years of missed targets & time wasted ! Beggars can’t be choosers.
Technical Analysis.
With an overload of information, I am turning to INTC’s technical indicators to see where the stock’s trajectory is heading. (see below)
(1) Simple Moving Averages (SMAs).
On 21 Jul 2026, INTC closed the day at $105.45 /share, trailing its SMA of 20-day ($115.87) and 50-day ($116.86) but ahead of its 200-day ($64.84). (see above)
With stock price trailing the mid-term averages, it indicates that INTC has shifted from its bullish June peak into a corrective phase.
The near-term direction will likely be influenced by (a) market digestion of major restructuring moves, and (b) quarterly earnings in a day’s time. (see below)
Golden Cross Conundrum.
One other point to note is INTC is still in its “golden cross” formation since 15 Aug 2025 onwards.
In technical analysis, an active Golden Cross during a price drop suggests the current decline INTC experiences, is a temporary correction (profit-taking) rather than a permanent trend reversal.
Having said that, if INTC remains persistently below the $115 critical level over the next few months, its “golden cross” formation could give way to “death cross” formation too.
(2) MACD.
Both MACD line (-5.11) and Signal line (-2.68) are below the Zero line, confirms that INTC is firmly in bearish territory, where bears control the price action.
Further, with MACD line falling below the Signal line, triggers a classic technical sell signal, showing that recent selling pressure is outpacing the longer-term trend.
Divergence at -2.43, shows that the gap between the MACD and Signal lines is widening downward, confirming that selling momentum is gaining speed and not slowing down, yet.
(3) RSI.
With its 14-day RSI coming in at 45.31, it shows that while the stock is falling, there is no panic selling or extreme exhaustion from sellers yet.
During a pullback, the 40 - 50 range as a critical pivot - below 50 confirms bears have the upper hand, and staying above 40 means the medium-term uptrend is trying to hold.
My viewpoints: (mine only)
INTC is at a critical inflection point where tangible manufacturing progress (eg. its 18A process and new foundry client) is showing signs of long-term turnaround is real.
However, after a massive +185% run-up and subsequent sharp correction, Wall Street is demanding immediate financial proof, leaving zero margin for error in its upcoming earnings.
The stock's next move hinges on whether management's upcoming forward guidance can convince an impatient market that its expensive foundry pivot will yield sustainable, high-margin growth.
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Do you think INTC foundry services will be able to secure more clients by end 2026?
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Do you think INTC’s Q2 2026 earnings on Thursday will be able to meet or beat Wall Street estimates ?
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With Trump now deploying a bomber to the Middle East (for show or for real) & it's approval to permit Saudi Arabia to have nuclear, things just got more muddled.
No guessing required how INTC will trade on Thursday.
In a surprise pre-market note, INTC is bucking the trend and rising (for now). No one should get too happy & celebrate; not until US 4pm when trading closes for the day. And then there is Friday to contend with.
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