The selloff looks more like a cycle reset than a confirmed cycle peak. CXMT's DRAM expansion raises legitimate oversupply concerns, especially for commodity memory, but AI demand remains concentrated in high-bandwidth memory (HBM), where SK Hynix and Micron still hold technology advantages. The key question is whether new Chinese capacity can meaningfully pressure premium AI products or mainly lower-end DRAM. With SK Hynix reporting this week and SanDisk next week, guidance will matter more than headline earnings. If management confirms robust AI demand, HBM pricing and healthy customer commitments, this pullback could prove a mispricing. If they instead signal weakening pricing power and slowing orders, the market may conclude the memory upcycle has peaked. This earnings season should provide the answer.
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