To The Moon

$SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ sell. Bubble popping

Today, South Korean stocks plunged, with the $CSOP KOSPI(03121)$ index at one point falling more than 7%, breaking below the psychologically important 6,000-point level and approaching its July low: On the news front, Broadcom CEO Hock Tan said at an event in Singapore yesterday that most companies see no return on their AI computing investments, questioning the long-term viability of money-losing AI labs. He said: "Many investors don't really know what they're investing in. They set absurdly high expectations, only to realize in the end that they're practically in a casino." $Broadcom (AVGO) Tan also noted that several AI companies, including OpenAI, lose tens of billions of dollars each year. Such services require massive spending on high-end c

The indices: the Dow outran the Nasdaq for the third session in a row All three indices split again on Monday: the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ rose 0.38 per cent to 51,850.55; the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ fell 0.06 per cent to 7,807.24, essentially flat; and the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ fell 0.44 per cent to 27,245.90. The 10-year Treasury yield stayed at 5.24 per cent, unchanged from Friday. Monday was the third consecutive session in which the Dow outperformed the Nasdaq. Nvidia fell 1.29 per cent to US$226.32 and AMD fell 2.28 per cent to US$594.24, extending the declines that began last Thursday on the OpenAI revenue report. Memory st

One technology announcement. Four stocks under pressure. On Monday, October 12, $SanDisk(SNDK)$ fell 5.97%, $Lumentum(LITE)$ dropped 9.78%, $Micron Technology(MU)$ lost 3.88%, and $SK Hynix(000660)$ declined 4.02%. The catalyst? China’s memory-chip maker ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) announced progress on a next-generation DRAM architecture that could intensify competition in the global memory market.  But has the competitive threat changed overnight, or is the market pricing in a risk that still needs to be proven? 🔬 1. What has CXMT actually achieved? CXMT says it has made progress on a 4F² DRAM cell architecture, designed to fit more memory cells into a smaller area. Mainstream DRAM has traditionally used a 6F² cell design. Moving to 4F² could improve memory density and potential

The memory trade just got a new risk to consider. On Monday, $SanDisk(SNDK)$ fell 5.97%, $Lumentum(LITE)$ dropped 9.78%, $Micron Technology(MU)$ lost 3.88%, and $SK Hynix(000660)$ declined 4.02%. The trigger? China’s ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) announced progress on a new DRAM architecture that could increase memory density and improve manufacturing efficiency. The company plans to introduce a server-memory product using its 4F² design by the end of 2026.  But I think there are two separate stories here. 🔍 1. The threat is pricing power, not just market share The 4F² architecture aims to fit more memory cells into a smaller area than the conventional 6F² design. If CXMT can successfully scale this technology, it could eventually become a more serious competitor in server DRAM, put

$07709$ fck This piece of shit 

Market Outlook of S&P500 (05Oct2026) Technicals as of Friday 2 October close, pulled via Yahoo Finance data: · Close: 7,722.72 — 1.2% below the 52-week high of 7,816.70, and +12.6% year to date · Moving averages: price above the MA50 (7,658) and MA200 (7,226); MA50 above MA200 — the trend structure is intact · MACD: 10.98, marginally below signal 11.12 — momentum has stalled at the highs, though the histogram is improving (−0.14 from −3.02) · RSI(14): 54.8 — neutral · Chaikin Money Flow (20): −0.053 — has slipped negative; money trickling out at the highs · Stochastic: %K 78.3 above %D 62.9 — recovering · Overall ten-rule gauge: 7 buy / 3 sell — still constructive, but last week’s clean sweep is gone: MACD cross, money flow and 20-day momentum have all turned. The CNN Fear & Greed

News and my thoughts from the past week (28Sep2026) Benson's selected items (drafted from his inputs, his fact-check notes applied): 1. Weather and natural disasters across Asia. Typhoon Dujuan swept Japan's Kanto region around 21–23 September, bringing record rainfall, landslides and flooding with a rising death toll, and another storm was intensifying near Okinawa by week's end. Vietnam is still recovering from heavy rain and flooding across its northern and north-central provinces from mid-September, with homes inundated and crops damaged. In Thailand, all 50 Bangkok districts were declared disaster areas after severe rainfall, school closures and disruption to government travel — continued rain raises the risk of worse. In the Pacific, Hurricane Polo is real but its near-term threat is

Two-Thirds of Future Capacity Sold — Is Memory Becoming Less Cyclical? Memory stocks surged Tuesday, but the more interesting story may be happening underneath the share prices. $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$   SanDisk says roughly two-thirds of its FY2028 bits are already covered by new business-model agreements. That is significant because memory has historically been one of the most cyclical parts of semiconductors. What changed? SanDisk says its new agreements with eight customers cover approximately 50% of FY2027 bits and two-thirds of FY2028 bits. The contracts include committed volumes, minimum financial guarantees and pricing mechanisms.  That gives SanDisk something memory companies traditionally haven’t had: greater visibility into

Preview of the week starting 28Sep2026 - Payrolls, PCE and a coin-flip in Sydney Economic Calendar (28Sep2026) Economic calendar for the week (source: Investing.com, via Benson) A genuinely live week: two US prints that can move the rates path, one central-bank decision that is too close to call, and China going quiet for Golden Week from Thursday. 1. The RBA decides — and the market has not made up its mind (Tuesday 29 September, 2:30 pm AEST). The cash rate sits at 4.35%. Pricing is roughly 55/45 between a 25 bp rise to 4.60% and a hold; NAB expects the rise this week, ANZ, CBA and Westpac lean to November. The awkward part: August CPI lands on Wednesday, after the vote, so the board decides with July's 3.5% headline (3.6% trimmed mean) as its freshest read. Whichever way it goes, the st

The global semiconductor memory market in 2026 is experiencing an unprecedented structural squeeze. While Big Tech hyperscalers, GPU titans, and cloud providers aggressively absorb massive volumes of High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and enterprise-grade DDR5, persistent shortages continue to plague the electronics ecosystem. In this article, we would like to offer a comprehensive financial analysis of High-Bandwidth Memory deficits, supply chain bottlenecks, and equity options execution. 1. The Paradox of Abundance: Why Memory Remains Constrained The contemporary artificial intelligence infrastructure boom has fundamentally re-architected the semiconductor demand curve. Hyperscale cloud providers and AI accelerator developers are procuring record volumes of memory silicon. Yet, persistent suppl

I don't think the market suddenly discovered dilution a day late. The shares were being sold through an ATM programme, so the dilution was happening gradually and was already known. What changed when the raise was completed was certainty: 29.3 million new shares had actually been issued, raising US$1.94B. That's roughly 5% dilution against Rocket Lab's previous common-share count. Thursday's rally may therefore have been relief that the Iridium financing was secured and the US$3.6B bridge facility could be cancelled. Friday then looked more like the market digesting the other side of that trade: a stronger balance sheet, but more shares dividing the future upside. So I wouldn't say dilution was priced exactly one day late. The market first rewarded financing certainty, then reconsidered w

I find the memory strength interesting because $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ , $Micron Technology(MU)$ and $SK hynix(SKHY)$ all moved higher while the broader chip chain also remained positive. To me, this looks more like money staying within the AI semiconductor theme rather than a simple rotation away from chips. For Micron, the September 30 earnings will be important. I want to see whether margins and guidance can support the current memory-cycle optimism. A strong report could reinforce the thesis, while weaker guidance would make me more cautious. I am still bullish on semiconductors over the longer term, but I prefer to accumulate gradually during pullbacks rather t

I am leaning toward the view that AI has strengthened the memory cycle, but it has not eliminated the cycle completely. HBM and server DRAM demand are structurally stronger because AI servers are consuming much more memory, so I think this upcycle can last longer than a traditional cycle. At the same time, I understand Burry’s argument. Strong pricing will attract more capacity, and if supply catches up with AI demand, memory margins can compress quickly. For me, the key risk is the timing of the supply response, especially from new capacity and improving technology. I am still constructive on $Micron Technology(MU)$ for the mid to long term, but I prefer watching pricing, inventory and supply data rather than simply following the bullish narrative

I’d choose ③ — DRAM can stay strong, but NAND may peak first. AI is changing memory demand, but not every segment benefits equally. HBM and server DRAM remain closely tied to AI infrastructure, with rising memory content per server helping support pricing. NAND is different. Enterprise SSD demand is strong, but NAND still has greater exposure to consumer electronics. If new capacity ramps faster than demand, NAND pricing could weaken earlier. That’s why I wouldn’t ask whether the entire memory cycle has peaked. The more important question is which segment turns first. Burry’s warning still matters: high margins eventually attract supply. But timing is everything. For MU, SNDK and SKHY, I’d watch pricing, inventories and 2027 capacity growth closely. The memory trade may not be simply bulli

For the memory trade to stop needing the next price rise, I would want Micron to show that earnings growth can increasingly come from volume, product mix and structural AI demand rather than just higher DRAM and NAND prices. Strong HBM4 shipments, sustained data-centre demand, firm long-term customer commitments and continued margin strength even as pricing growth moderates would be especially important. If Micron can demonstrate that AI-driven memory demand remains ahead of supply into 2027 while volumes expand, the thesis becomes much more durable than simply betting on another pricing cycle.

A has been still trying to stay relevant! I hope the Ai revolution just crushes this idiot from a bygone era!!!

Memory stocks have been one of the hottest parts of the AI trade, but Michael Burry is leaning the other way. Burry has continued to add to his bearish exposure on $Micron Technology(MU), even as DRAM pricing remains firm and AI-related demand stays strong. What makes the trade interesting is the timing: he is not shorting memory because the current fundamentals look weak. He appears to be betting that today’s strength eventually creates tomorrow’s oversupply. That is the core debate in memory right now. The bullish case is straightforward. AI servers need more HBM, more server DRAM and more enterprise SSD capacity. Hyperscalers are still expanding infrastructure, memory content per server keeps rising, and supply remains tight in several key categories. In that environment, strong pricing

For $MU, I think the bigger test is whether the numbers show the cycle is translating into sustainable cash generation. I’d be watching free cash flow, capex discipline and how much of future production is already committed. If Micron can grow earnings without having to keep pushing prices higher, that could be a meaningful sign that the current memory cycle has more staying power. 👀

The most interesting part of the memory rally isn’t Tuesday’s gains. It’s what the order books are starting to say. SanDisk jumped 6.82%, Micron gained 5%, and SK Hynix rose 3.45%. Rosenblatt’s new SanDisk coverage highlighted customer agreements covering roughly 65% of fiscal 2028 production — a very different setup from the classic memory cycle where companies build capacity first and hope demand follows.  That creates an unusual question: If so much future capacity is already spoken for, is the market still pricing memory like a commodity cycle? There are two ways to look at it. 📈 The bull case: Long-term commitments give manufacturers better visibility and reduce the risk of aggressive inventory swings. AI infrastructure is also creating demand for both HBM and high-performance NAND,

Today, South Korean stocks plunged, with the $CSOP KOSPI(03121)$ index at one point falling more than 7%, breaking below the psychologically important 6,000-point level and approaching its July low: On the news front, Broadcom CEO Hock Tan said at an event in Singapore yesterday that most companies see no return on their AI computing investments, questioning the long-term viability of money-losing AI labs. He said: "Many investors don't really know what they're investing in. They set absurdly high expectations, only to realize in the end that they're practically in a casino." $Broadcom (AVGO) Tan also noted that several AI companies, including OpenAI, lose tens of billions of dollars each year. Such services require massive spending on high-end c

The indices: the Dow outran the Nasdaq for the third session in a row All three indices split again on Monday: the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ rose 0.38 per cent to 51,850.55; the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ fell 0.06 per cent to 7,807.24, essentially flat; and the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ fell 0.44 per cent to 27,245.90. The 10-year Treasury yield stayed at 5.24 per cent, unchanged from Friday. Monday was the third consecutive session in which the Dow outperformed the Nasdaq. Nvidia fell 1.29 per cent to US$226.32 and AMD fell 2.28 per cent to US$594.24, extending the declines that began last Thursday on the OpenAI revenue report. Memory st

One technology announcement. Four stocks under pressure. On Monday, October 12, $SanDisk(SNDK)$ fell 5.97%, $Lumentum(LITE)$ dropped 9.78%, $Micron Technology(MU)$ lost 3.88%, and $SK Hynix(000660)$ declined 4.02%. The catalyst? China’s memory-chip maker ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) announced progress on a next-generation DRAM architecture that could intensify competition in the global memory market.  But has the competitive threat changed overnight, or is the market pricing in a risk that still needs to be proven? 🔬 1. What has CXMT actually achieved? CXMT says it has made progress on a 4F² DRAM cell architecture, designed to fit more memory cells into a smaller area. Mainstream DRAM has traditionally used a 6F² cell design. Moving to 4F² could improve memory density and potential

The memory trade just got a new risk to consider. On Monday, $SanDisk(SNDK)$ fell 5.97%, $Lumentum(LITE)$ dropped 9.78%, $Micron Technology(MU)$ lost 3.88%, and $SK Hynix(000660)$ declined 4.02%. The trigger? China’s ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) announced progress on a new DRAM architecture that could increase memory density and improve manufacturing efficiency. The company plans to introduce a server-memory product using its 4F² design by the end of 2026.  But I think there are two separate stories here. 🔍 1. The threat is pricing power, not just market share The 4F² architecture aims to fit more memory cells into a smaller area than the conventional 6F² design. If CXMT can successfully scale this technology, it could eventually become a more serious competitor in server DRAM, put

$SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ sell. Bubble popping

$07709$ fck This piece of shit 

Preview of the week starting 28Sep2026 - Payrolls, PCE and a coin-flip in Sydney Economic Calendar (28Sep2026) Economic calendar for the week (source: Investing.com, via Benson) A genuinely live week: two US prints that can move the rates path, one central-bank decision that is too close to call, and China going quiet for Golden Week from Thursday. 1. The RBA decides — and the market has not made up its mind (Tuesday 29 September, 2:30 pm AEST). The cash rate sits at 4.35%. Pricing is roughly 55/45 between a 25 bp rise to 4.60% and a hold; NAB expects the rise this week, ANZ, CBA and Westpac lean to November. The awkward part: August CPI lands on Wednesday, after the vote, so the board decides with July's 3.5% headline (3.6% trimmed mean) as its freshest read. Whichever way it goes, the st

News and my thoughts from the past week (28Sep2026) Benson's selected items (drafted from his inputs, his fact-check notes applied): 1. Weather and natural disasters across Asia. Typhoon Dujuan swept Japan's Kanto region around 21–23 September, bringing record rainfall, landslides and flooding with a rising death toll, and another storm was intensifying near Okinawa by week's end. Vietnam is still recovering from heavy rain and flooding across its northern and north-central provinces from mid-September, with homes inundated and crops damaged. In Thailand, all 50 Bangkok districts were declared disaster areas after severe rainfall, school closures and disruption to government travel — continued rain raises the risk of worse. In the Pacific, Hurricane Polo is real but its near-term threat is

The global semiconductor memory market in 2026 is experiencing an unprecedented structural squeeze. While Big Tech hyperscalers, GPU titans, and cloud providers aggressively absorb massive volumes of High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and enterprise-grade DDR5, persistent shortages continue to plague the electronics ecosystem. In this article, we would like to offer a comprehensive financial analysis of High-Bandwidth Memory deficits, supply chain bottlenecks, and equity options execution. 1. The Paradox of Abundance: Why Memory Remains Constrained The contemporary artificial intelligence infrastructure boom has fundamentally re-architected the semiconductor demand curve. Hyperscale cloud providers and AI accelerator developers are procuring record volumes of memory silicon. Yet, persistent suppl

Monday gave us one of the cleanest tests of the memory rally so far. SanDisk fell roughly 1.4% to around $1,766 after its S&P 100 inclusion became effective. Meanwhile: 🟢 Micron +2.77% 🟢 SK Hynix +0.73% 🔴 SanDisk -1.41% At first glance, that looks strange. If memory is still hot, why did one of 2026's biggest memory winners fall while its peers rose? I think the answer is important: The market may finally be separating the memory-cycle thesis from the SNDK trade. And that changes my Pick Levels. SNDK: The Easy Catalyst Has Expired SanDisk's S&P 100 inclusion created something traders love: a catalyst with a deadline. Index-tracking funds needed exposure. Traders could anticipate those flows. Momentum attracted more momentum. Then came September 21. The inclusion became effective. A

Memory stocks have been one of the hottest parts of the AI trade, but Michael Burry is leaning the other way. Burry has continued to add to his bearish exposure on $Micron Technology(MU), even as DRAM pricing remains firm and AI-related demand stays strong. What makes the trade interesting is the timing: he is not shorting memory because the current fundamentals look weak. He appears to be betting that today’s strength eventually creates tomorrow’s oversupply. That is the core debate in memory right now. The bullish case is straightforward. AI servers need more HBM, more server DRAM and more enterprise SSD capacity. Hyperscalers are still expanding infrastructure, memory content per server keeps rising, and supply remains tight in several key categories. In that environment, strong pricing

This week’s macro focus was the Fed’s September meeting. On September 16, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, its first hike in more than three years, after markets had priced in more than 92% odds. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly hit 5.0266%, widening the 10-year/3-month spread to 89 basis points. Meanwhile, escalating Middle East tensions lifted Brent above $109 a barrel and drove WTI up about 9.6% for the week. Higher yields and geopolitical risk weighed on U.S. equities, with the Dow down 1.56% and the S&P 500 off 0.78%. Commodities diverged: crude gained nearly 10%, while copper and aluminum each fell about 1%. Gold lost 1.4% and silver fell more than 5%, extending precious metals’ losing streak to three weeks. As of the close on September 16, 2026, the week

🔥 Two-Thirds of SNDK’s FY2028 Capacity Is Already Sold — This Memory Cycle Is Starting to Look Different The most important number in the memory market right now may not be NAND pricing. It may be two-thirds. SanDisk has already signed New Business Model agreements covering approximately 50% of its FY2027 bits and ~two-thirds of FY2028 bits. These aren’t simple purchase intentions — the agreements are built around committed volumes, minimum financial guarantees and structured pricing mechanisms. That matters because traditional NAND has always been brutally cyclical: Demand rises → manufacturers add capacity → supply catches up → prices collapse → margins compress. But what happens when a substantial portion of future production is already spoken for? 💡 The cycle becomes much more predicta

The indices: three of them, three directions On Tuesday the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Composite closed 0.45 per cent higher at 27,244.28, up 122.18 points on the day and a second straight close at a record; the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ closed 0.36 per cent lower at 51,863.69, down 185.14 points, with $Cisco(CSCO)$, $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ and American Express leading the fallers at 4.50 per cent, 3.35 per cent and 2.62 per cent lower respectively; and the S&P 500 finished at 7,764.64, just 0.06 points below the 7,764.70 it closed at the previous session. That list of Dow f

Hi Tigers 🐯, Welcome to "What The Tigers Say." 👋 Memory led this week's rally as the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ closed at a record — $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$, $Micron Technology(MU)$ and $SK hynix(SKHY)$ all pushing higher on the back of tightening capacity, with about two-thirds of next year's memory output already sold. But the moves have been messy to read: index flows, cyclical debate, and stock-specific catalysts are all tangled together. Let's rewind to the three sharpest takes from @Isleigh,

Weekly Roundup 1. The Real Focus of the FOMC Isn't the Rate Move. It's the Treasury Yield Curve. Markets have largely priced in a 25-basis-point hike, so whether asset prices reprice sharply in the near term will hinge on how the Fed frames its future rate path and inflation outlook. The 10-year Treasury yield is closing in on 5%, and a decisive break above that level would weigh on both stocks and gold through three channels: valuation discounting, funding costs and risk appetite. What markets are really waiting on is whether long-term yields have peaked. 2. Beneath a Calm Surface, US Stocks Show Signs of Technical Fatigue. Market breadth is fading fast: only about 28% of NYSE-listed stocks are trading above their 20-day moving average, and the equal-weight S&P 500 has slipped be

The $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Composite closed 2.3 per cent higher on Monday at a record, its first since June; the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed 1.49 per cent higher at 7,764.70, which leaves it 0.4 per cent short of its own record; the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ closed 0.7 per cent higher. What brought risk appetite back was falling oil prices and lower Treasury yields, and no company put out an announcement that day big enough to move the whole market. The $Philadelphia Semiconductor Index(SOX)$ rose 4.3 per cent, a fifth straight session of gains. The distance that opened up

Market Outlook of S&P500 (05Oct2026) Technicals as of Friday 2 October close, pulled via Yahoo Finance data: · Close: 7,722.72 — 1.2% below the 52-week high of 7,816.70, and +12.6% year to date · Moving averages: price above the MA50 (7,658) and MA200 (7,226); MA50 above MA200 — the trend structure is intact · MACD: 10.98, marginally below signal 11.12 — momentum has stalled at the highs, though the histogram is improving (−0.14 from −3.02) · RSI(14): 54.8 — neutral · Chaikin Money Flow (20): −0.053 — has slipped negative; money trickling out at the highs · Stochastic: %K 78.3 above %D 62.9 — recovering · Overall ten-rule gauge: 7 buy / 3 sell — still constructive, but last week’s clean sweep is gone: MACD cross, money flow and 20-day momentum have all turned. The CNN Fear & Greed

The three US indices closed Friday almost where they started. The $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ fell 0.18 per cent to 51,682.64, down 95.40 points on the day; the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed 0.17 per cent higher at 7,650.50, up 12.74 points; and the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Composite closed 0.39 per cent higher at 26,522.54. It was a triple-witching day, with stock options, index futures and index options all expiring together and an index rebalancing on top, so volume was always going to be heavy. The calm at index level says very little; what was actually happening was money moving between sectors. The split between the indices is par

After rallying in August, gold has pulled back to the midpoint of that advance, with neither bulls nor bears gaining a clear upper hand. Technically, prices remain confined to the prior consolidation range, leaving room for either a breakout or a breakdown in the near term. The question is not whether gold must rise or fall, but whether post-FOMC macro moves can force a break from the range. $黃金主連 2612(GCmain)$ $微黃金主連 2612(MGCmain)$ $1盎司黃金主連 2612(1OZmain)$ $黃金ETF-SPDR(GLD)$ FOMC Surprise Drives Near-Term Pricing, With Real Yields and the Do