I would rotate modestly toward cash-flow certainty, not abandon growth. A 10-year yield near 4.8% is more than noise: it raises the discount rate on long-duration AI earnings and makes debt-funded capex increasingly expensive. With oil adding another inflation impulse and September hike odds now around two-thirds, richly valued tech has less room for disappointment.
But payrolls are the potential circuit-breaker. A genuinely weak jobs print could pull yields back quickly and revive duration-sensitive tech. So rather than chase the bond selloff, I would favour profitable, cash-generative companies and keep some dry powder. If payrolls surprise stronger, 5% on the 10-year becomes a much more uncomfortable possibility. If they disappoint sharply, today's tech weakness could become the entry point.
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- JudithGrant·09-02 14:02I agree on favoring cash flow, but rates already reflect a decent chunk of the inflation scare. The bigger question is whether term premium keeps doing the heavy lifting hereLikeReport