[Events] Fed Watch: Hike or Hold? What’s Your Call?
A few months ago, markets were still debating when the Fed might start cutting rates. Now the conversation has flipped.
After another hot inflation print and a fresh surge in oil prices, investors are asking a very different question: Could the Fed hike again?
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U.S. CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month in August, up sharply from 0.1% in July, while headline inflation climbed 3.4% from a year earlier.
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Core CPI also came in hotter than expected, rising 0.3% month-on-month, its biggest increase in four months.
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Energy is adding another layer of pressure. Brent crude has moved back above US$100 a barrel, raising concerns that higher fuel costs could eventually feed through into transport, goods and services.
That has pushed Wall Street expectations in a more hawkish direction.Markets are now heavily pricing in a 25-basis-point rate hike, while major banks including Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan have also shifted toward a more hawkish outlook.
But the Fed still faces a difficult choice.
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Hike rates, and it risks putting more pressure on growth, housing and high-valuation tech stocks.
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Hold steady, and inflation could prove even harder to bring back under control.
So what’s your call?
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A Hike 25bp-Inflation is still too hot to ignore.
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B Hold-The Fed should wait for more data.
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C Hike 50bp-Go harder now before inflation gets worse.
Bonus question: If the Fed hikes, what gets hit hardest?
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🤖 AI & tech stocks
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🏠 Housing
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₿ Bitcoin
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🥇 Gold
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I would not expect a 50bp hike at this stage because that could create unnecessary pressure on economic growth and financial markets. A 25bp hike would be a more measured approach, while keeping the door open for the Fed to pause if inflation starts cooling again.
If the Fed hikes, my pick for the biggest short-term impact is 🤖 AI & tech stocks. Higher rates usually put pressure on high-valuation growth stocks because future earnings become less attractive when discounted at higher rates. I remain bullish on AI and the long-term trend, but I would rather see a pullback as an opportunity to accumulate gradually than chase prices higher.
@TigerClub @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerEvents
this inflation will affect gold, housing and tech n AI stocks
I wait for Kevin wasj to announce
I’d rather see the Fed make a small move now than wait until inflation becomes harder to control. August CPI rose 0.4% MoM, while core CPI accelerated to 0.3%, and energy prices are adding another layer of risk.
But I don’t think 50bp makes sense. Much of the renewed inflation pressure is coming from energy, so an aggressive hike could damage growth without solving the underlying supply shock.
If the Fed hikes, AI & high-valuation tech stocks probably feel the biggest immediate pressure. Higher yields raise the discount rate, making expensive future-growth stories harder to justify.
That said, strong AI cash flows could make mega-cap tech more resilient than speculative growth stocks.
25bp hike, not 50bp — and watch the Fed’s next move closely.
@TigerEvents [你懂的]