I don't think the market has fully accepted the second hike yet. The 25bp move was largely priced in, but the hawkish surprise was the path ahead. The Fed's September projections show 16 of 18 participants expecting rates to end 2026 above the new 3.75%-4.00% range, with 12 clustered around a 4.00%-4.25% target range.
The lack of a stock rally despite an expected hike suggests investors are still digesting "higher for longer". Treasury yields reinforce that pressure, with the 2Y around 4.67% and 10Y around 5.00%.
For equities, I think the next CPI and jobs data matter more than the dots themselves. Strong earnings can support the market, but if inflation stays sticky enough to make another hike increasingly credible, high-valuation growth stocks face a tougher discount-rate environment.
So my read is: the first hike was priced in; the possibility of another is being priced in now, but not necessarily fully accepted.
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- yansuji·09-17 13:52Shelter and core services in the next CPI probably matter more than the headline. If those stay sticky, December pricing shifts fast even before payrolls.LikeReport
- jollyfo·09-17 13:5210Y probably does not get back below 4.5% near term. Neutral rate repricing plus Treasury supply is doing more work than the dots nowLikeReport