[Earnings Recap] Meta Rises, Tesla Falls. Who's Winning the AI Race?
Meta gained after 26% revenue growth and an upbeat holiday-quarter forecast. IBM also advanced as software demand improved. Lam Research and AT&T sold off despite beating estimates, while Tesla slipped as weaker auto and energy results overshadowed a modest profit beat.
$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ initially rose more than 2% after hours
Meta owns Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp and is building consumer AI products, smart glasses and virtual-reality hardware.
Third-quarter revenue jumped 26% to $64.6 billion, comfortably above the roughly $63.3 billion consensus. Reported EPS was $3.83 after a $9.89 billion legal charge; excluding that item, earnings would have been $7.40 per share.
Ad impressions increased 10%, while the average price per ad rose 14%. Meta projected fourth-quarter revenue of $73 billion to $76 billion and narrowed its 2026 capital-spending forecast to $135 billion–$145 billion.
Shares initially rose more than 2.17% after hours before trimming the gain. Strong ad pricing, early interest in the Muse AI assistant and a solid holiday outlook helped investors look past another increase in infrastructure spending.apnews.com
$Lam Research(LRCX)$ fell more than 7% after hours
Lam Research makes equipment used to manufacture advanced memory and logic chips.
Fiscal first-quarter revenue surged to a record $8.22 billion, beating the $8.14 billion estimate. Adjusted EPS of $2.20 topped expectations by two cents, and adjusted operating margin reached 40.2%.
For the December quarter, Lam forecast revenue of about $8.6 billion and adjusted EPS of $2.33, both close to Wall Street’s forecasts.
The stock fell more than 7.41% after hours. Investors had been looking for a larger guidance increase after a strong run fueled by AI-related chip spending, making an in-line outlook a disappointment.Oct 21, 2026
$IBM(IBM)$ fell roughly 4.64% after hours
IBM sells enterprise software, infrastructure and consulting services, with a growing focus on hybrid cloud and AI.
Revenue increased about 5% to $17.1 billion, above the $16.8 billion consensus. Adjusted EPS came in at $2.95, beating estimates near $2.87.
Management raised its software-growth outlook to 7%–8% from 6%–8% and now expects annual free cash flow to increase by more than $1 billion from last year’s $14.7 billion.
IBM fell roughly 4.64% after hours. Previously delayed software contracts closed during the quarter, while improving margins and cash generation strengthened confidence in the company’s AI and software strategy.
$AT&T Inc(T)$ dropped 6.5%
AT&T provides wireless, fiber broadband and business-communications services across the United States.
Third-quarter revenue rose 5.3% to $32.3 billion, beating the $31.7 billion estimate. Adjusted EPS of 65 cents topped the 60-cent consensus, and free cash flow reached $5 billion.
AT&T added 379,000 postpaid phone subscribers and a record 769,000 internet customers. It raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to about $2.40 from $2.25–$2.35.
Shares dropped 6.5%. Wireless additions merely matched expectations, while fiber revenue per user fell 4% as discounted bundles attracted customers at lower prices. Investors also weighed the prospect of tougher competition from SpaceX.
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ declined about 3.2% after hours
Tesla sells electric vehicles and battery-storage systems while investing heavily in autonomous driving, robotics and AI.
Revenue was roughly flat at $28.05 billion, essentially matching estimates. Adjusted EPS of 48 cents narrowly beat the 45-cent consensus, and free cash flow reached $1.5 billion.
Automotive revenue declined 3%, while energy-generation and storage revenue fell 16% and missed estimates by a wide margin. Quarterly capital spending more than doubled to $4.7 billion, though Tesla lowered its full-year capex forecast to about $20 billion from $25 billion.
Shares declined about 3.2% after hours. Investors focused on falling net income, slower vehicle and energy growth, and the increasing cost of Tesla’s AI ambitions. Confirmation that Tesla and SpaceX are studying a potential combination did little to support the stock.
Discussion
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Tesla, IBM, AT&T and Lam Research all fell after earnings. Which stock do you think will bounce back first? Tell us your pick and why
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could offer greater upside if AI-driven chip investment accelerates, but its guidance suggests expectations are already demanding.
remains a higher-risk recovery bet: autonomous driving and robotics offer enormous potential, yet weaker automotive and energy revenue make execution critical.
My verdict: IBM has the clearest near-term recovery case, while Lam Research offers stronger cyclical upside. A beaten-down stock is not automatically a bargain; the next move depends on whether future earnings can exceed expectations.
@Tiger_Earnings [财迷]
$IBM(IBM)$ also looks interesting because software growth is improving and management expects stronger free cash flow. However, I would like to see whether this momentum can continue in the coming quarters rather than relying on one strong earnings report.
For me, a post-earnings selloff is not automatically a buying opportunity. I would watch price action, key support levels and the next earnings outlook before adding to my position. I remain bullish on Tesla long term, but patience and disciplined entries matter more than trying to catch the exact bottom.
@TigerStars @Tiger_comments @TigerClub @Tiger_Earnings
我的判断主要基于一个区别：**LRCX更像是市场预期过高导致的估值调整，而TSLA和AT&T面临的则是更直接的业务增长压力。**
首先，按照帖子提供的数据，LRCX营收创下新高，调整后营业利润率达到40.2%，下一季度收入指引也没有明显恶化。股价盘后下跌超过7%，主要原因可能不是基本面突然转弱，而是此前AI半导体设备的增长预期已经被股价充分反映。
其次，AI算力扩张最终需要更多先进制程、HBM及存储制造设备。LRCX作为半导体设备供应商，能够受益于部分晶圆厂资本开支增长。不过，AI需求强劲不代表所有设备订单都会同步增加，仍需观察客户实际扩产计划。
相比之下，TSLA虽然具备Robotaxi和机器人业务的长期想象空间，但汽车收入下降、能源业务不及预期，意味着市场还需要等待更明确的盈利改善信号。AT&T的用户增长与单用户收入压力也需要时间验证。IBM则有软件业务和现金流支撑，但短期股价弹性未必最强。
**不过，我不会因为LRCX盘后跌了7%就立即抄底。** 我会先观察正式交易时的成交量、是否收复盘后跌幅，以及分析师有没有继续下调未来几个季度的盈利预测。
还有一点值得注意：财报超预期却下跌，并不一定意味着市场错杀。真正决定反弹持续性的，是未来盈利预期能否继续上修。
**我的排序思路是：短期关注LRCX的超跌修复，中期观察IBM的软件和现金流表现，TSLA则需要更多业务兑现来支撑估值。**
在财报季，最值得寻找的不是跌幅最大的股票，而是**股价预期已经降低、基本面却仍有机会改善的公司**。🐯
我的判断主要基于一个区别：**LRCX更像是市场预期过高导致的估值调整，而TSLA和AT&T面临的则是更直接的业务增长压力。**
首先，按照帖子提供的数据，LRCX营收创下新高，调整后营业利润率达到40.2%，下一季度收入指引也没有明显恶化。股价盘后下跌超过7%，主要原因可能不是基本面突然转弱，而是此前AI半导体设备的增长预期已经被股价充分反映。
其次，AI算力扩张最终需要更多先进制程、HBM及存储制造设备。LRCX作为半导体设备供应商，能够受益于部分晶圆厂资本开支增长。不过，AI需求强劲不代表所有设备订单都会同步增加，仍需观察客户实际扩产计划。
相比之下，TSLA虽然具备Robotaxi和机器人业务的长期想象空间，但汽车收入下降、能源业务不及预期，意味着市场还需要等待更明确的盈利改善信号。AT&T的用户增长与单用户收入压力也需要时间验证。IBM则有软件业务和现金流支撑，但短期股价弹性未必最强。
**不过，我不会因为LRCX盘后跌了7%就立即抄底。** 我会先观察正式交易时的成交量、是否收复盘后跌幅，以及分析师有没有继续下调未来几个季度的盈利预测。
还有一点值得注意：财报超预期却下跌，并不一定意味着市场错杀。真正决定反弹持续性的，是未来盈利预期能否继续上修。
**我的排序思路是：短期关注LRCX的超跌修复，中期观察IBM的软件和现金流表现，TSLA则需要更多业务兑现来支撑估值。**
在财报季，最值得寻找的不是跌幅最大的股票，而是**股价预期已经降低、基本面却仍有机会改善的公司**。🐯
我最关注这3只股票
1. META（Meta）——增长动力较强 营收增长26%，广告业务表现不错，假日季度预测也乐观。风险是AI投资庞大，未来能否赚回成本非常重要。
2. LRCX（Lam Research）——值得关注 AI需要先进芯片，芯片制造设备可能长期受益。但股价已经反映多少利好，需要看估值，不能只因下跌就买入。
3. TSLA（特斯拉）——风险较高 汽车收入下滑，利润率承压，AI和机器人业务仍需要时间证明赚钱能力。短期股价可能继续波动。
哪只可能先反弹？
如果必须选择，我会优先研究 META，因为目前广告收入增长较强，业务已经能够赚钱。
但要注意：反弹最快不代表长期回报最好。
我的策略是先观察股价反应和估值，再分批投资，不会单纯因为财报后下跌就急着抄底。