To The Moon

What is CFTC Data? Why Must We Watch It?The Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released weekly by the CFTC (U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission), serves as one of the key references for global futures market fund flows. Its greatest value lies in breaking down market participants, allowing us to see "who is buying and who is selling."CFTC categorizes market positions primarily into three groups:Non-Commercial Positions: Mainly speculative funds such as hedge funds and CTAs, representing the most sensitive and directional forces in the market.Commercial Positions: Industry clients using them for hedging, with weaker directionality.Non-Reportable Positions: Small funds, with minimal impact.Among these, non-commercial positions are the core focus. The reason is simple: these funds aim

Gold should not be seen as a standalone asset. On its own, it has no intrinsic value—and naysayers have been banging on this point for years, saying it doesn’t produce cashflow and therefore can’t be valued. Gold’s value is driven by a myriad of factors. The earliest is that it’s perceived as a store of value—and that perception has lasted until today. In other words, gold has value as long as society believes it has value. Otherwise, we could have used anything. Here’s what matters more: gold’s value is relative to alternative stores of value. And in today’s context, the US Dollar is the single most important currency—a store of value and a medium of exchange. That’s why gold prices tend to have an inverse relationship with the USD. If the USD weakens, gold rises. And vice versa. To me, t

I. CFTC Positioning Data: Understanding the “Language of Smart Money”Many people focus only on prices, but what truly drives prices is where the money is positioned. The Commitments of Traders (COT) report released by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) translates this “language of money” into indicators that ordinary investors can understand. The “soul” of this report lies in two dimensions: who is holding positions, and whether they are long or short.CFTC positioning data classifies participants into three major categories: commercial positions (hedgers), non-commercial positions (speculators/funds), and non-reportable positions (retail traders). Among these, the most critical are non-commercial positions—funds, hedge funds, and large institutions whose objective is prof

Gold will still rise as the alternate currency to USD. If you think the world will demand less of USD then gold price will surely rise 

I won't chase the Gold 🪙 yet instead focus on Energy, it's where the chart 📈 points 😀 I go Strong 💪😅 $ConocoPhillips(COP)$ @Aqa @JC888 @Shyon @Barcode @koolgal @Shernice軒嬣 2000 @DiAngel

$SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$   $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$  Gold hit its former support level turned resistance. Look at the chart it is all technical, it hit its 200 moving average and bounced and not hitting resistance. In the short term it will be heading downwards but in a mid to longer time frame I remain bullish for gold given US will lower interest rates and loosen monetary policy, Trump is request USD 1.5 trillion dollars for their defense budget it is a 40% increase, where do you think that money will come from? It will come in the expense of devaluation of the dollar. In the short term I expect it hitting his 200 day moving average about 4150 - 4200 range before bouncing up again. the

💬 Gold investors: $10,000 gold — fantasy or inevitable? Where do you stand in this wild debate? Let’s hear your price target! Gold hit an all-time high of roughly **$5,600 per ounce** in January this year — more than double the level of around $2,600 at the end of 2024. As of press time, gold has pulled back to approximately $4,800 an ounce. Even so, a growing number of prominent analysts, business leaders, and investors — including Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase — believe gold could nearly double again to $10,000 per ounce in the near future. Why Did Gold Surge Over the Past Two Years? $Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$ In 2022 and 2023, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to fight inflation. This pressure strengthened the U

The timeline is the only thing that differs and must be managed carefully if you have inferred here is correct. Especially what comes after that gold rally is a long term bear… but I do agree that a new gold peak might be on the way…

That’s a really good point

[OMG] The “World Bear Day” today turns out to be really scary. While the world of bears is in peril, the global stock markets are also in ‘beary’ scary mode. Traders are all feeling bearish today. My holding of tech stocks and Reits are beaten hard. Most investors would hold on to their portfolio now and hope the Middle East crisis could be eased in a short term. Still holding on to $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$ $United States Oil Fund LP(USO)$ as history proves these two always significantly outperform many other asset classes. Be brave when everyone else is fearful of the bear. Keep some cash to buy the dip. Let’s take on the bear!🐻 Thanks @TigerEvents @TigerStars

First, let's take a step back: why did precious metals suddenly plunge? most people in the market see three main explanations for the sharp drop in gold and silver: Logic 1: Global central banks have turned more hawkish, and higher interest rates effectively raise the cost of holding precious metals. Logic 2: The Middle East conflict has created an oil shortage, and energy has replaced precious metals as the “hard currency” of choice. Logic 3: Gold and silver were heavily crowded trades, and profittaking on stretched long positions has triggered a selling spiral. But I’m not really convinced by any of the three explanations above I broke these three arguments down in detail and leaned more toward a different interpretation: gold and silver are being sold as assets to raise cash, wh

Hope the worst is over asap. If not, I am seeing my earning profits had been dropping drastically.

The hawkish hold may become hawkish spike.  Yield curve is shifting up, strong for dollar (short term overwhelms debasement), weak for gold.  But Fed's hands are tied, so meaningful rate hikes are almost improbable.  This inflation may not be as transitory as the Covid period, the energy input supply issue is not resolvable within a year.  Gold will therefore be a long term hold. 

Wait for further dip to buy more.

Hello everyone. Under normal circumstances, with a war still going on, gold should be benefiting from its safe-haven appeal, so why has the price collapsed instead? What does this selloff tell us about trading gold and equity indices, and are there similar periods in history that we can use as reference points? Today, Mr. Gan will go through all of this in the livestream. Below are some notes I put together. The Gulf states have fallen into a strange trap: oil prices are rising, but their income is falling because they cannot sell enough crude. Why? Because of the Strait blockade.  $WTI原油主连 2605(CLmain)$ $美国原油ETF(USO)$ $小原油主连 2605(QMmain)$

All depends on your strategy. If you plan to rotate will be a good option to sell. If on a longer journey keep as it will always go up

...  .... Nga nga nga nga nga nga

This looks like a headline-driven relief rebound, not yet a clean all-clear. Gold did rebound sharply, with reports tying the move to hopes for diplomacy, lower immediate energy-risk pricing, and softer oil after talk of a possible ceasefire framework. Reuters reported markets were cheered by Trump’s comments about progress with Iran, while Axios reported that U.S. and regional mediators are still waiting for Tehran’s response on possible high-level talks as early as Thursday. Axios also said Iranian officials remain suspicious of the U.S. push, so the diplomatic path is still fragile.  My view: do not treat this bounce as proof the correction is over. When gold rallies mainly because war fears ease, the move can reverse quickly if talks stall, oil spikes again, or Hormuz headlines wo

The script of "Geopolitical Shock - Resurgent Inflation - Forced Liquidation" has played out four times in the last 46 years. The 2026 iteration is distinguished by its unprecedented speed.

After hitting a record high of $5,589 this January, gold prices plummeted to approximately $4,100 in less than two months—a 26.6% peak-to-trough retracement. This marks the most catastrophic monthly decline in 43 years. However, prices managed to claw back to $4,400 during pre-market trading.

What is CFTC Data? Why Must We Watch It?The Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released weekly by the CFTC (U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission), serves as one of the key references for global futures market fund flows. Its greatest value lies in breaking down market participants, allowing us to see "who is buying and who is selling."CFTC categorizes market positions primarily into three groups:Non-Commercial Positions: Mainly speculative funds such as hedge funds and CTAs, representing the most sensitive and directional forces in the market.Commercial Positions: Industry clients using them for hedging, with weaker directionality.Non-Reportable Positions: Small funds, with minimal impact.Among these, non-commercial positions are the core focus. The reason is simple: these funds aim

Gold should not be seen as a standalone asset. On its own, it has no intrinsic value—and naysayers have been banging on this point for years, saying it doesn’t produce cashflow and therefore can’t be valued. Gold’s value is driven by a myriad of factors. The earliest is that it’s perceived as a store of value—and that perception has lasted until today. In other words, gold has value as long as society believes it has value. Otherwise, we could have used anything. Here’s what matters more: gold’s value is relative to alternative stores of value. And in today’s context, the US Dollar is the single most important currency—a store of value and a medium of exchange. That’s why gold prices tend to have an inverse relationship with the USD. If the USD weakens, gold rises. And vice versa. To me, t

I. CFTC Positioning Data: Understanding the “Language of Smart Money”Many people focus only on prices, but what truly drives prices is where the money is positioned. The Commitments of Traders (COT) report released by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) translates this “language of money” into indicators that ordinary investors can understand. The “soul” of this report lies in two dimensions: who is holding positions, and whether they are long or short.CFTC positioning data classifies participants into three major categories: commercial positions (hedgers), non-commercial positions (speculators/funds), and non-reportable positions (retail traders). Among these, the most critical are non-commercial positions—funds, hedge funds, and large institutions whose objective is prof

💬 Gold investors: $10,000 gold — fantasy or inevitable? Where do you stand in this wild debate? Let’s hear your price target! Gold hit an all-time high of roughly **$5,600 per ounce** in January this year — more than double the level of around $2,600 at the end of 2024. As of press time, gold has pulled back to approximately $4,800 an ounce. Even so, a growing number of prominent analysts, business leaders, and investors — including Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase — believe gold could nearly double again to $10,000 per ounce in the near future. Why Did Gold Surge Over the Past Two Years? $Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$ In 2022 and 2023, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to fight inflation. This pressure strengthened the U

Today, gold dropped all the way from $4,500 per ounce to $4,102, with a maximum decline of as much as 8.8%. Market sentiment has fallen into extreme pessimism. Considering the previous three trading days, when gold declined by 3.75%, 3.53%, and 3.26% respectively, today’s sharp drop is even more alarming. After consecutive declines, gold has completely erased its 30% gain for the year. At this moment of panic, I chose to buy the dip. I bought some $Gold Trust Ishares(IAU)$ at $78. Next, let’s talk about the logic behind my decision. First, it is necessary to understand the reasons behind this sharp decline in gold. According to traditional thinking, gold is a safe-haven asset, and regional conflicts should benefit gold prices. On the first trading

Hello everyone. Under normal circumstances, with a war still going on, gold should be benefiting from its safe-haven appeal, so why has the price collapsed instead? What does this selloff tell us about trading gold and equity indices, and are there similar periods in history that we can use as reference points? Today, Mr. Gan will go through all of this in the livestream. Below are some notes I put together. The Gulf states have fallen into a strange trap: oil prices are rising, but their income is falling because they cannot sell enough crude. Why? Because of the Strait blockade.  $WTI原油主连 2605(CLmain)$ $美国原油ETF(USO)$ $小原油主连 2605(QMmain)$

In a single day, $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ surrendered the $4,500, $4,400, $4,300, $4,200, and $4,100 levels in rapid succession. After hitting a record high of $5,589 this January, gold prices plummeted to approximately $4,100 in less than two months—a 26.6% peak-to-trough retracement. This marks the most catastrophic monthly decline in 43 years. However, prices managed to claw back to $4,400 during pre-market trading. As the U.S.-Iran conflict enters its third week, the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has sent oil prices soaring over 40%. With inflation fears reignited, the Fed has narrowed its 2026 rate-cut expectations to just one. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has breached the 100 mark, exerting massive pressure on precious and base metals

First, let's take a step back: why did precious metals suddenly plunge? most people in the market see three main explanations for the sharp drop in gold and silver: Logic 1: Global central banks have turned more hawkish, and higher interest rates effectively raise the cost of holding precious metals. Logic 2: The Middle East conflict has created an oil shortage, and energy has replaced precious metals as the “hard currency” of choice. Logic 3: Gold and silver were heavily crowded trades, and profittaking on stretched long positions has triggered a selling spiral. But I’m not really convinced by any of the three explanations above I broke these three arguments down in detail and leaned more toward a different interpretation: gold and silver are being sold as assets to raise cash, wh

The gold market is currently navigating a period of high intensity, where technical "overbought" signals are clashing with powerful geopolitical and structural drivers. The State of the Bull Run Despite the recent steep pullbacks, the consensus among major institutions (J.P. Morgan, UBS, Goldman Sachs) is that the secular bull market remains intact. The current sell-off is largely viewed as a "healthy consolidation" following the parabolic move earlier this year. Record Highs: Most analysts expect gold to notch fresh record highs later in 2026. Targets range from $5,000/oz (J.P. Morgan/HSBC) to as high as $6,300/oz (UBS/Bank of America) by year-end. The Iran Factor: The conflict in Iran is the primary driver of current volatility. While "safe-haven" demand initially spiked prices to nearly

If you opened your trading app today and saw a sea of red, you’re definitely not alone. March 12 turned into one of those classic macro-driven trading days: oil surged past $100, the U.S. dollar strengthened sharply, and U.S. stocks recorded their biggest drop of the year. When geopolitics, commodities, and monetary policy collide, markets tend to move fast—and today was a perfect example. But before reacting emotionally to a volatile session, it’s worth stepping back and understanding what actually drove the market today. Here are the five developments every investor should know. 🛢️ 1️⃣ Oil Breaks $100 — Energy Risk Is Back The biggest story today is simple but powerful: oil is back above $100 per barrel. According to Reuters and Bloomberg market data, Brent crude surged more than 10% int

If you want to trade futures, then CFTC data is something you really shouldn’t ignore. The CFTC is the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which you can think of as the regulator of the U.S. futures market. Every week, it publishes large-trader positioning data that tells you which side the big money is on.​ So today, let’s go through the latest set of CFTC data.​ Before we begin, let me briefly explain what CFTC data actually is. The CFTC report tracks positions in futures contracts, and these are divided into reportable positions and non-reportable positions. Reportable positions are further split into commercial and non-commercial positions. You can think of commercial positions as those held by industrial capital, such as mines, smelters, manufacturers, and other business entiti

At the beginning of this week, the precious metals market felt like a falling knife. $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ plummeted 8% in two days, touching a six-week low of $4600, while $ProShares Ultra Silver(AGQ)$ staged a gut-wrenching crash.Geopolitical tensions are back with a vengeance. Just as the market was pricing in a "US-Iran rapprochement," the script flipped. Reports of assassination threats against leadership have shattered the fragile trust, and the Habshan gas facility strike in Abu Dhabi has set the energy complex on edge.Despite the chaos, gold is down and oil is sideways. Why isn't the market buying the "safe haven" narrative yet?1. The Liquidity Paradox: Why Gold Fell in a CrisisTypically,

Remember at the beginning of the year, numerous reports projected that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates four times. However, following the surge in oil prices, the market has swung from one extreme to another. Today, hardly anyone dares to anticipate any rate cuts this year. In fact, working backward from the latest U.S. Treasury yield data, the market has even begun to price in potential rate hikes starting in October. This dramatic shift—going from extreme euphoria to sheer panic in just two to three weeks—clearly demonstrates that market trends are currently driven by future sentiment and expectations rather than genuine, medium-to-long-term fundamental changes. Investors must deeply understand this reality. Predictably, if the strait blockade eventually concludes and rate c

Global financial markets have recently grown increasingly complex, and it is evident that market capital is currently undergoing a drastic risk repricing. Against this backdrop, both commodities and equity markets are exhibiting signs of exhaustion, struggling to sustain their recent trajectories. Crude oil may be facing fading upward momentum, while US equities—battered by capital outflows and suppressed by rising yields—appear vulnerable to further weakness at any moment.​ Short Bets Intensify on US Equities Institutional trading desk data reveals that the selling pressure on US equities is not to be underestimated. Goldman Sachs' Prime Book data flashes a distinctively negative signal: US equities have faced sell-offs for the fourth consecutive week. More alarmingly, hedge funds are not

What caused the gold crash? The chain reaction currently driving gold is: War → Oil up → Inflation risk → Rate cuts delayed → Bond yields & USD up → Gold down Recent reports confirm gold fell sharply because rising oil prices increased inflation fears and reduced expectations for interest-rate cuts, while a stronger USD and higher bond yields made gold less attractive.  There is also another important factor: Liquidity selling. During market stress, investors sometimes sell gold to cover losses elsewhere, so gold can fall even during geopolitical crises.  So this crash is macro-driven, not gold fundamentals collapsing. --- Is this a regime change or just a correction? Important perspective: Gold peaked ~ $5,600 Recently dropped to around $4,100–4,300 That is about a 25% corre

Gold fell more than 8% intraday, breaking below $4,200 and reaching the $4,100 level. It has now declined for multiple consecutive days, wiping out all of this year’s gains. On March 22, US President Donald Trump issued an ultimatum to Iran in the evening New York time, demanding that it reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days or face attacks on its power facilities. Iran responded that if attacked, it would “completely close” the strait and target energy and infrastructure. This escalation directly pushed oil prices higher. Rising oil prices have changed the market’s view on inflation. As energy costs increase, investors are reassessing the US inflation path, believing that the previous disinflation trend may be interrupted. In this context, expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts

$Gold - main 2604(GCmain)$ is currently facing a typical but extremely brutal combination of macroeconomic shocks: a stronger dollar, rising US Treasury yields, and a rapid reassessment of global market expectations regarding interest rate paths following the Middle East wars that pushed up oil prices. This confluence of factors has turned gold, which should have benefited from the geopolitical crisis, into a target of continuous selling. As the Middle East war enters its fourth week, with the US and Iran continuing to threaten to expand their attacks, gold prices fluctuated wildly at the beginning of the week. After experiencing its worst weekly drop in over 40 years, spot gold fell to a new low since early January at $4319.32

Gold prices saw a sharp decline yesterday, dropping about 3.7%, followed by another 2% decline today. Within just two days, prices broke below the $5,000 and $4,900 levels, falling toward $4,800 and even briefly dipping under $4,700. From a one-day performance perspective, gold-related ETFs declined broadly. Physical gold ETFs saw $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$ fall 3.16%, $Gold Trust Ishares(IAU)$ drop 3.14%, and $Spdr Gold Minishares Trust(GLDM)$ decline 3.18%. Gold mining ETFs experienced steeper losses, with $VanEck Gold Miners ETF(GDX)$ down 6.23%, $VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF(GDXJ)$

The Red Screen of 2026: Why Gold & Silver are Diving Together  🌟🌟🌟As of Friday, 20 March 2026, the commodities market is in a high velocity liquidation flush.  If you are staring at your screen wondering why Gold and Silver are diving despite the Iran war, look no further than the high stakes standoff at the US Federal Reserve. The "Why": The Captain Who Refuses To Leave the Bridge  The Powell Standoff:  The Cause  The market is recoiling because Jerome Powell has effectively declared on Wednesday 18 March 2026 that he is not going anywhere.  He vowed to serve as "Chair Pro Tem" if his term expires on May 15 before a successor is confirmed. The Power Play  Even more disruptive, Powell stated that he would remain on the Board of Governors until 2028 wh

Trump ultimately opted for the "Winning Strategy" we predicted to try and defuse the situation in Iran. While this somewhat delayed move briefly pushed oil prices down from $119 to below $80, the unresolved issue in the Strait of Hormuz has kept oil prices firm, preventing the situation from returning to an ideal state. As the Middle East narrative is likely to stretch into a significantly longer cycle, the risks of high oil prices transmitting into broader inflation will materialize. One thing is certain: the longer this drags on, the bigger the trouble for financial markets.​ From a technical standpoint, oil prices printed a massive Doji star last week, characterized by exceptionally long upper and lower shadows. Typically, after such a structure appears, the market requires time to dige