To The Moon

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I have repeatedly highlighted October as a key turning-point window for US equity indices. Whatever the news backdrop, a break below the key trend line should prompt us to consider reducing risk. US indices have yet to see a sharp acceleration in selling, but other markets, including mainland China's A-share market, have already fallen. It is hard to tell whether this reflects a synchronized move across markets or local developments. With most of the news unfavorable, however, temporarily reducing risk is a prudent choice. $China A50 Index - main 2610(CNmain)$ $Hang Seng Index - main 2610(HSImain)$ $Hang Seng Index - Oct 2026(HSI2610)$

I’d watch Treasury yields first. Neutral Fed guidance helps, but if yields remain volatile or keep climbing, tech valuations can still stay under pressure. A sustained stabilisation or decline in yields would suggest the bond market believes inflation and policy risks are becoming more manageable. If the Fed stays neutral and yields settle at the same time, then mega-cap earnings should become the bigger driver for QQQ. For me, stable yields would be the stronger confirmation that policy risk is genuinely fading rather than just temporarily being pushed aside by earnings.

The AI selloff does not have a fixed end date and remains tied to escalating oil prices (surpassing $100–$116 per barrel due to Middle East tensions). In this article, we would like to share how we are analyzing the key drivers prolonging the AI tech selloff, covering chipmakers, mega-cap infrastructure providers, and Federal Reserve rate expectations. I. Macroeconomic Catalysts Fueling the Downturn The equity selloff in technology and artificial intelligence infrastructure is not happening in a vacuum; rather, it represents the intersection of severe external macroeconomic shocks and internal industry re-evaluations. Central to this broader disruption is an unprecedented squeeze on operating margins and cost of capital, driven primarily by energy market instability and elevated discount r

What happened to last quarter stock price?  The second quarter was weak. Organic revenue fell 1%, US pet medicine sales fell 11%, and management cut its full-year revenue forecast for the second time this year, to $9.12 billion to $9.32 billion. The stock rose 3.9% on the day anyway, a sign the price was pessimistic. In September, management said the discounts it was using to win customers back from rivals hadn’t worked well enough, so it made them bigger in the third quarter. List prices were not cut though, just bigger discounts. stock like Zoetis It fell to $69.10 on 1 Oct, then recovered to $82.00, 6% above where i wrote about it before Where we stand the fair value is $125 to $155, and the stock trades 34% below the low end.this show market still not very pessimistic yet 

Oil breaking $100 is adding pressure to tech already weak on AI capex fears. This rotation to defensives makes sense short term, Procter & Gamble, Coca-Cola, Walmart, Costco and Eli Lilly all showing safe haven bid. I think Berkshire Hathaway with $360B cash and buybacks is best positioned if selloff continues, but defensives look extended now. I see this as one day flight to safety unless oil holds above $100, then AI valuations need to reset further before rebound.

Disclaimer: Nothing I say or post should be considered financial advice. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.‌ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ are reporting earnings respectively this coming week. Will they struggle to justify their AI spending like $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ which pullback significantly post earnings? Or will they soar to greater heights and break new highs? Additionally, the fed rate announcement is happening this week as well. So it will be wise to not over-leverage yourselves with additional positions, unless your trading system thrives on

The market: technology shares, oil and Treasuries pointed in three directions The $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ fell 2.60 per cent to 26,009 on Thursday, the $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ lost 2.86 per cent to US$704.47, and the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ declined 1.21 per cent to 7,663.43. Technology carried most of the damage: $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ fell 6.98 per cent, $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ 4.40 per cent, $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ 8.10 per cent,

• Brent Crude: The international benchmark Brent crude has also traded well above the $100 threshold, recently climbing toward five-month highs past $112 a barrel amid ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure and tanker routes. • Drivers of the Rally: • Intensified fighting involving the U.S. and Iran, including strikes and threats targeting key shipping lanes like the Strait of Hormuz. • Houthi attacks on energy facilities in Saudi Arabia. • Declining U.S. commercial crude oil inventories

The AI trade has a new problem, and it isn’t coming from a chip shortage or disappointing earnings. It’s oil. With crude prices approaching or exceeding $100 a barrel, depending on the benchmark, investors face an uncomfortable combination: rising energy costs, persistent inflation risks and pressure on expensive technology stocks. At the same time, money is flowing towards companies with established earnings and more predictable cash flows. Procter & Gamble, Coca-Cola, Walmart, Costco and Berkshire Hathaway have attracted attention as investors reassess how much risk they want to take. But here’s the bigger question: Could expensive oil change the market’s leadership just as quickly as AI transformed it? 🔎 1. Why $100 Oil Matters Beyond the Energy Sector Higher oil prices don’t just b

The market is sending investors a clear message: when uncertainty rises, money looks for safety. As oil breaks above $100, technology stocks face renewed pressure. Meanwhile, investors are rotating into defensive names such as Procter & Gamble, Coca-Cola, Walmart and Berkshire Hathaway. These companies offer relatively resilient businesses and established cash flows when market sentiment weakens. But is this rotation the beginning of a lasting trend, or simply a temporary reaction to market uncertainty? 🔎 Three Things Investors Should Watch 1. Oil Prices and Inflation Higher oil prices can push up transportation and production costs, putting pressure on corporate margins and consumer spending. If elevated energy prices keep inflation high, the Federal Reserve may have less room to cut

One strong day is not enough to call this a lasting rotation. I would look for persistence and breadth. If staples, healthcare and other defensive sectors continue outperforming for several weeks, while tech repeatedly fails to regain leadership, that would be much more convincing. We are already seeing some persistence: consumer staples gained about 5% last week while technology fell sharply. I would also watch earnings revisions and valuations. A genuine shift should be supported by stable or improving earnings expectations for defensives, rather than investors simply paying higher multiples for safety. Berkshire is particularly interesting. Its cash and Treasury holdings were about US$359B at end-Q2, but it has restarted sizeable buybacks and deployed capital into equities and acquisiti

Hong Kong technology stocks accelerated their decline today. As of 10:57 a.m. HKT, the Hang Seng TECH Index was down 4.3% at 3,823, after touching an intraday low of 3,819. The index had already fallen below 4,000 in the previous session, while all 30 constituents traded lower at one point today. $TENCENT(00700)$Tencent fell below HK$400, with Alibaba, NetEase and several AI-related stocks also under significant pressure. (Hang Seng Indexes) It would be easy to describe this as another decline in risk appetite. The more important shift, however, is that investors are changing how they value Chinese technology companies: Previously, announcing higher AI investment was enough to support valuations. Now the market wants to know when

Tonight's earnings arrive at an interesting moment. Tesla is around $353, while Meta is around $704. Both are AI stories, but the market is asking completely different questions. For Meta: Is AI generating enough advertising revenue to justify enormous capex? For Tesla: Can autonomy, Robotaxi and robotics eventually become large enough to justify a valuation that already looks far beyond a conventional automaker? For me, Tesla is the more fascinating setup because tonight's EPS is almost secondary to what management says about 2027. 🔵 TESLA: I AM WATCHING 4 THINGS 1. Automotive margins This is still the foundation. Consensus expectations around $0.45 EPS and $28B revenue matter, but I care more about whether automotive economics are stabilising. Tesla can talk about robots and autonomy all

The indices: Dow up, Nasdaq flat, a split that maps onto earnings week The three indices diverged on Tuesday: the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ rose 1.02 per cent to 52,495.88; the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 0.28 per cent to 7,712.57; the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ was nearly unchanged, closing down 0.02 per cent at 26,424.82. The 10-year Treasury yield settled at 5.12 per cent. The Dow–Nasdaq split tracks the shape of this week's reporting calendar: technology names started spreading risk before the numbers are in, some moving forward, some pulling back. Memory: the CXMT overhang still has not cleared

I’m watching Meta’s ad revenue growth more closely. Digital advertising is already a proven AI monetisation channel, so stronger ad growth, better engagement and improving ad efficiency would provide clearer evidence that Meta’s heavy AI capex is generating returns. Tesla’s automotive gross margin is important too, especially for judging pricing power and the health of its core EV business. But the autonomous-driving thesis still depends heavily on future execution. For me, Meta’s numbers give a more immediate read on whether AI investment is translating into actual revenue today, while Tesla’s results tell us whether its existing automotive business can support its longer-term autonomy ambitions.

The market is approaching another important earnings test, and two of the biggest names in the AI investment story are in the spotlight. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 rose 0.28% to 7,712.57, while QQQ slipped 0.10% to $717.63. Netflix then fell more than 5% after hours following disappointing Q4 revenue guidance, reminding investors that even established technology companies can face pressure when expectations are high. Now attention turns to Meta and Tesla, both reporting after the market close. These companies represent two very different approaches to AI. Meta is using AI to strengthen an advertising business that already generates substantial revenue. Tesla is pursuing a broader transformation that could extend from electric vehicles into autonomous driving, robotaxis and robotics. Both

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh declined to provide forward guidance or signal whether the central bank will raise or hold interest rates at the upcoming October 27–28, 2026 FOMC meeting, stating at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok that he does not "prejudge" policy decisions. In this article, we would like to share our understanding the policy mechanics, positioning strategies, and sectoral implications surrounding this pivotal meeting. I. Macroeconomic Context & The October FOMC Framework The Federal Open Market Committee enters its October 27–28, 2026 meeting against one of the most ambiguous macroeconomic backdrops in recent monetary history. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s explicit refusal to offer forward guidance during his remarks at the IMF and World Ban

QQQ fell 2.50% Friday, while the S&P 500 lost 1.11%. The obvious explanation is hotter inflation plus Fed uncertainty. But I think the more useful interpretation is this: The market is not pricing a guaranteed hike. It is repricing the probability that rates stay restrictive for longer. That distinction matters enormously for what I would buy next. 🔵 WHY WARSH'S SILENCE MATTERS Warsh declined to pre-commit ahead of the 27-28 October meeting. That is not automatically hawkish. But markets dislike uncertainty, particularly when valuations are elevated. Hotter CPI and PPI have already weakened the case for easier policy. If bond markets begin pricing another hike, long-duration technology gets hit first because its valuation depends heavily on future earnings. That explains why QQQ fell m

The market doesn’t need an interest-rate hike to fall. Sometimes, the fear of what comes next is enough. Friday’s decline in the Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) highlights a difficult situation for investors. Hotter-than-expected inflation data has renewed concerns about interest rates, while Kevin Warsh’s refusal to offer forward guidance has left the market without a clear signal ahead of the October 27–28 Fed meeting. But there is another question worth considering: What if the biggest risk isn’t the Fed’s next move, but how much investors have already assumed about it? 📊 1. Markets React to Expectations, Not Just Decisions Share prices reflect expectations about future earnings, interest rates and economic growth. When inflation comes in hotter than expected, investors m

I have repeatedly highlighted October as a key turning-point window for US equity indices. Whatever the news backdrop, a break below the key trend line should prompt us to consider reducing risk. US indices have yet to see a sharp acceleration in selling, but other markets, including mainland China's A-share market, have already fallen. It is hard to tell whether this reflects a synchronized move across markets or local developments. With most of the news unfavorable, however, temporarily reducing risk is a prudent choice. $China A50 Index - main 2610(CNmain)$ $Hang Seng Index - main 2610(HSImain)$ $Hang Seng Index - Oct 2026(HSI2610)$

The AI selloff does not have a fixed end date and remains tied to escalating oil prices (surpassing $100–$116 per barrel due to Middle East tensions). In this article, we would like to share how we are analyzing the key drivers prolonging the AI tech selloff, covering chipmakers, mega-cap infrastructure providers, and Federal Reserve rate expectations. I. Macroeconomic Catalysts Fueling the Downturn The equity selloff in technology and artificial intelligence infrastructure is not happening in a vacuum; rather, it represents the intersection of severe external macroeconomic shocks and internal industry re-evaluations. Central to this broader disruption is an unprecedented squeeze on operating margins and cost of capital, driven primarily by energy market instability and elevated discount r

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I’d watch Treasury yields first. Neutral Fed guidance helps, but if yields remain volatile or keep climbing, tech valuations can still stay under pressure. A sustained stabilisation or decline in yields would suggest the bond market believes inflation and policy risks are becoming more manageable. If the Fed stays neutral and yields settle at the same time, then mega-cap earnings should become the bigger driver for QQQ. For me, stable yields would be the stronger confirmation that policy risk is genuinely fading rather than just temporarily being pushed aside by earnings.

Disclaimer: Nothing I say or post should be considered financial advice. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.‌ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ are reporting earnings respectively this coming week. Will they struggle to justify their AI spending like $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ which pullback significantly post earnings? Or will they soar to greater heights and break new highs? Additionally, the fed rate announcement is happening this week as well. So it will be wise to not over-leverage yourselves with additional positions, unless your trading system thrives on

The market: technology shares, oil and Treasuries pointed in three directions The $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ fell 2.60 per cent to 26,009 on Thursday, the $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ lost 2.86 per cent to US$704.47, and the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ declined 1.21 per cent to 7,663.43. Technology carried most of the damage: $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ fell 6.98 per cent, $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ 4.40 per cent, $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ 8.10 per cent,

The AI trade has a new problem, and it isn’t coming from a chip shortage or disappointing earnings. It’s oil. With crude prices approaching or exceeding $100 a barrel, depending on the benchmark, investors face an uncomfortable combination: rising energy costs, persistent inflation risks and pressure on expensive technology stocks. At the same time, money is flowing towards companies with established earnings and more predictable cash flows. Procter & Gamble, Coca-Cola, Walmart, Costco and Berkshire Hathaway have attracted attention as investors reassess how much risk they want to take. But here’s the bigger question: Could expensive oil change the market’s leadership just as quickly as AI transformed it? 🔎 1. Why $100 Oil Matters Beyond the Energy Sector Higher oil prices don’t just b

What happened to last quarter stock price?  The second quarter was weak. Organic revenue fell 1%, US pet medicine sales fell 11%, and management cut its full-year revenue forecast for the second time this year, to $9.12 billion to $9.32 billion. The stock rose 3.9% on the day anyway, a sign the price was pessimistic. In September, management said the discounts it was using to win customers back from rivals hadn’t worked well enough, so it made them bigger in the third quarter. List prices were not cut though, just bigger discounts. stock like Zoetis It fell to $69.10 on 1 Oct, then recovered to $82.00, 6% above where i wrote about it before Where we stand the fair value is $125 to $155, and the stock trades 34% below the low end.this show market still not very pessimistic yet 

The market is sending investors a clear message: when uncertainty rises, money looks for safety. As oil breaks above $100, technology stocks face renewed pressure. Meanwhile, investors are rotating into defensive names such as Procter & Gamble, Coca-Cola, Walmart and Berkshire Hathaway. These companies offer relatively resilient businesses and established cash flows when market sentiment weakens. But is this rotation the beginning of a lasting trend, or simply a temporary reaction to market uncertainty? 🔎 Three Things Investors Should Watch 1. Oil Prices and Inflation Higher oil prices can push up transportation and production costs, putting pressure on corporate margins and consumer spending. If elevated energy prices keep inflation high, the Federal Reserve may have less room to cut

Hong Kong technology stocks accelerated their decline today. As of 10:57 a.m. HKT, the Hang Seng TECH Index was down 4.3% at 3,823, after touching an intraday low of 3,819. The index had already fallen below 4,000 in the previous session, while all 30 constituents traded lower at one point today. $TENCENT(00700)$Tencent fell below HK$400, with Alibaba, NetEase and several AI-related stocks also under significant pressure. (Hang Seng Indexes) It would be easy to describe this as another decline in risk appetite. The more important shift, however, is that investors are changing how they value Chinese technology companies: Previously, announcing higher AI investment was enough to support valuations. Now the market wants to know when

Oil breaking $100 is adding pressure to tech already weak on AI capex fears. This rotation to defensives makes sense short term, Procter & Gamble, Coca-Cola, Walmart, Costco and Eli Lilly all showing safe haven bid. I think Berkshire Hathaway with $360B cash and buybacks is best positioned if selloff continues, but defensives look extended now. I see this as one day flight to safety unless oil holds above $100, then AI valuations need to reset further before rebound.

Tonight's earnings arrive at an interesting moment. Tesla is around $353, while Meta is around $704. Both are AI stories, but the market is asking completely different questions. For Meta: Is AI generating enough advertising revenue to justify enormous capex? For Tesla: Can autonomy, Robotaxi and robotics eventually become large enough to justify a valuation that already looks far beyond a conventional automaker? For me, Tesla is the more fascinating setup because tonight's EPS is almost secondary to what management says about 2027. 🔵 TESLA: I AM WATCHING 4 THINGS 1. Automotive margins This is still the foundation. Consensus expectations around $0.45 EPS and $28B revenue matter, but I care more about whether automotive economics are stabilising. Tesla can talk about robots and autonomy all

The indices: Dow up, Nasdaq flat, a split that maps onto earnings week The three indices diverged on Tuesday: the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ rose 1.02 per cent to 52,495.88; the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 0.28 per cent to 7,712.57; the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ was nearly unchanged, closing down 0.02 per cent at 26,424.82. The 10-year Treasury yield settled at 5.12 per cent. The Dow–Nasdaq split tracks the shape of this week's reporting calendar: technology names started spreading risk before the numbers are in, some moving forward, some pulling back. Memory: the CXMT overhang still has not cleared

The market is approaching another important earnings test, and two of the biggest names in the AI investment story are in the spotlight. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 rose 0.28% to 7,712.57, while QQQ slipped 0.10% to $717.63. Netflix then fell more than 5% after hours following disappointing Q4 revenue guidance, reminding investors that even established technology companies can face pressure when expectations are high. Now attention turns to Meta and Tesla, both reporting after the market close. These companies represent two very different approaches to AI. Meta is using AI to strengthen an advertising business that already generates substantial revenue. Tesla is pursuing a broader transformation that could extend from electric vehicles into autonomous driving, robotaxis and robotics. Both

One strong day is not enough to call this a lasting rotation. I would look for persistence and breadth. If staples, healthcare and other defensive sectors continue outperforming for several weeks, while tech repeatedly fails to regain leadership, that would be much more convincing. We are already seeing some persistence: consumer staples gained about 5% last week while technology fell sharply. I would also watch earnings revisions and valuations. A genuine shift should be supported by stable or improving earnings expectations for defensives, rather than investors simply paying higher multiples for safety. Berkshire is particularly interesting. Its cash and Treasury holdings were about US$359B at end-Q2, but it has restarted sizeable buybacks and deployed capital into equities and acquisiti

• Brent Crude: The international benchmark Brent crude has also traded well above the $100 threshold, recently climbing toward five-month highs past $112 a barrel amid ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure and tanker routes. • Drivers of the Rally: • Intensified fighting involving the U.S. and Iran, including strikes and threats targeting key shipping lanes like the Strait of Hormuz. • Houthi attacks on energy facilities in Saudi Arabia. • Declining U.S. commercial crude oil inventories

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh declined to provide forward guidance or signal whether the central bank will raise or hold interest rates at the upcoming October 27–28, 2026 FOMC meeting, stating at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok that he does not "prejudge" policy decisions. In this article, we would like to share our understanding the policy mechanics, positioning strategies, and sectoral implications surrounding this pivotal meeting. I. Macroeconomic Context & The October FOMC Framework The Federal Open Market Committee enters its October 27–28, 2026 meeting against one of the most ambiguous macroeconomic backdrops in recent monetary history. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s explicit refusal to offer forward guidance during his remarks at the IMF and World Ban

QQQ fell 2.50% Friday, while the S&P 500 lost 1.11%. The obvious explanation is hotter inflation plus Fed uncertainty. But I think the more useful interpretation is this: The market is not pricing a guaranteed hike. It is repricing the probability that rates stay restrictive for longer. That distinction matters enormously for what I would buy next. 🔵 WHY WARSH'S SILENCE MATTERS Warsh declined to pre-commit ahead of the 27-28 October meeting. That is not automatically hawkish. But markets dislike uncertainty, particularly when valuations are elevated. Hotter CPI and PPI have already weakened the case for easier policy. If bond markets begin pricing another hike, long-duration technology gets hit first because its valuation depends heavily on future earnings. That explains why QQQ fell m

Hotter inflation, falling tech stocks and a Fed that refuses to show its hand. Is Wall Street facing another reality check? The Nasdaq 100 ETF $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ)$ fell 2.50% on Friday, while the $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)$ dropped 1.11%. With inflation data coming in hotter than expected, investors are reconsidering whether interest rates could stay higher for longer. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has declined to signal whether the Federal Reserve will raise rates at its October 27–28 meeting. His message is clear: investors should not assume the next move until policymakers make their decision.  For the stock market, uncertainty over interest rates creates a difficult balancing act. 📉 Why Tech Stocks Could Face More Pressure Growth stocks are particularly sensitive to interest rates

The market doesn’t need an interest-rate hike to fall. Sometimes, the fear of what comes next is enough. Friday’s decline in the Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) highlights a difficult situation for investors. Hotter-than-expected inflation data has renewed concerns about interest rates, while Kevin Warsh’s refusal to offer forward guidance has left the market without a clear signal ahead of the October 27–28 Fed meeting. But there is another question worth considering: What if the biggest risk isn’t the Fed’s next move, but how much investors have already assumed about it? 📊 1. Markets React to Expectations, Not Just Decisions Share prices reflect expectations about future earnings, interest rates and economic growth. When inflation comes in hotter than expected, investors m