To The Moon

The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,785.76 after touching a record 7,816.70 during the week. We are basically sitting on the roof of the market. And right now my feed seems split into two camps. 🐂 Camp one: Buy the breakout. Don’t overthink it. New highs lead to new highs. 🐻 Camp two: Take profit immediately. Stocks are expensive. A correction has to be coming. I’m doing neither. I’m already invested, so I’m not running for the exit. But I’m also not throwing fresh money at record highs just because the chart is green. The market still has to earn my next dollar. And for me, that comes down to two dates. 📅 August 19: FOMC Minutes 📅 August 26: NVIDIA Earnings One tests the price investors are willing to pay for growth. The other tests whether the growth itself is still strong enough to deser

Last Week's Recap 1. Weekly Market Digest: Stocks Flat, Yields at 2007 Highs, Inflation Moderates, Oil Rebounds Flat market — U.S. indexes were little changed as stocks took a breather after the prior week's record highs. S&P 500 and NASDAQ ended fractionally higher; Dow fractionally lower. Elevated yields — 30-year Treasury yield climbed back to ~5.26% (highest since 2007); 10-year at 4.69%, while the 2-year eased slightly to 4.17%. Moderating inflation — July CPI held steady at 3.4% annual rate (down from June's 3.5%); PPI showed inflation little changed from the prior month. Robust revenue — S&P 500 Q2 revenue growth on pace for 15% (highest since Q4 2021), per FactSet; earnings growth tracking above 50%, strongest since Q2 2021. Oil rebounds — U.S. crude rose above $82 Friday (

Hello. The weekend is over, and the most striking thing left from Friday's close was a pair of numbers pointing opposite ways: $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ up 6.50 per cent, $Broadcom(AVGO)$ down 5.94 per cent. Both are AI chip names, and they spent the day going in different directions. What the market was reading that day was not results. It was second-quarter position disclosures. Stanley Druckenmiller's 13F showed him loading up on Amazon and AMD while dumping a batch of chipmakers, and a Soros fund was adding AMD too, alongside $Micron Technology(MU)$, $Appli

Market participants recently received a double dose of macroeconomic relief as both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) demonstrated continued moderation. On paper, both metrics signalled the same underlying economic dynamic: inflationary pressures across the United States are steadily subsiding toward the Federal Reserve’s target. However, equity markets reacted with striking asymmetry to the two releases. While the CPI report triggered a modest, cautious advance, the subsequent PPI print unleashed an aggressive risk on surge across major benchmarks, driving tech indices toward fresh elevated levels. Understanding why Wall Street differentiated so sharply between these two inflation metrics holds the key to evaluating how much further this equity rally can run, w

I would stay invested in AI and semiconductors, but avoid aggressively adding at these levels. The macro backdrop has improved, but the market has already priced in a lot of good news. The S&P 500 is coming off another record close, while July retail sales fell 0.6%, the first decline in nine months. Combined with benign CPI/PPI and weaker employment, this strengthens the case for a September Fed hold.  My preference would be: 1. Keep AI/semis: The secular earnings story remains strong, although valuations and expectations are high. Applied Materials' 5% drop despite good guidance is a reminder that even strong AI-related results can disappoint when expectations are extreme.  2. Gradually rotate into financials/consumer: Not a wholesale switch, but these sectors offer diversi

Disclaimer: Nothing I say or post should be considered financial advice. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. So will the constant pressure of inflation force the hands of the fed to make an adjustment to interest rates before end of 2026? Or will they find strategies to ease investors on inflationary risks? Let’s see how this plays out.[Cool]  @PawsAndProfits - Specialist in combining FA and TA for Options selling and Swing trading.[666] 

$Applied Materials(AMAT)$   Applied Materials reported quarterly revenue of $9.12 billion, above Wall Street’s $8.99 billion estimate. The chip-equipment maker also guided for next-quarter revenue of about $10.25 billion, well ahead of the $9.54 billion consensus, while adjusted EPS guidance of $4.02 topped expectations of $3.69. AI spending remains the main driver. Applied now expects advanced-packaging revenue to grow more than 70% in 2026, up from its previous forecast of more than 50%, as chipmakers keep investing in DRAM, leading-edge logic and packaging capacity. Still, the stock dropped more than 5% in extended trading. Shares had already more than doubled this year, leaving little room for anything shor

🌟🌟🌟The US Mid Election: Are you trading the pre election bump or sitting tight & waiting for post November stretch? Strategy A: Hunting the Bump This historical bulls will point out that the ruling party loves to sprinkle policy sugar all  over the economy in late summer & early autumn.  They would do anything to make voters feel wealthy going into the booths. Breaking news: Trump is weighing a major massive investor tax break: indexing Capital Gains Tax to inflation & expanding exemptions for primary home sales. If this happens, the stock market is likely to go up. Strategy B: Wait for November stretch Ignore the political theatre entirely & wait for the post November clearing when there is more certainty in the market.  The market does not like uncertainty

Hello. The last of this week's AI hardware papers came in overnight, and both were sold. $Applied Materials(AMAT)$ earned US$3.50 a share, ahead of forecasts, grew revenue 25 per cent year on year, said AI-related demand hit a record, and guided next-quarter revenue above Wall Street expectations. It closed down 2.48 per cent and fell another 5.13 per cent after hours, to US$507.11. $Coherent(COHR)$ was starker. Its report the previous evening beat on both lines — earnings of US$1.74 a share against US$1.6474 expected, revenue of US$2.046 billion against US$2.025 billion — and it closed down 7.99 per cent yesterday at US$327.23, giving back the whole of the prior day's 8.24

Defense stocks have already rallied on higher budgets, Europe rearmament, drones and missile defense.$RTX Corp(RTX)$$Lockheed Martin(LMT)$$Northrop Grumman(NOC)$$Boeing(BA)$ The next theme may be simpler: the US needs to rebuild missile inventories. Recent conflicts have turned a long-known production gap into an urgent supply problem. Citrini Research notes that US missile and interceptor use over a five-month period exceeded any full year since the Gulf War. Air defense is the clearest case. CSIS estimates the Iran conflict consumed about 65% of pre-war US Patr

I lean wait for earnings rather than chase tech at record highs. The inflation backdrop is clearly improving: July CPI eased to 3.4%, while headline PPI was flat MoM and 4.7% YoY, strengthening the case for the Fed to remain on hold. That supports equity valuations, but the S&P 500 is already at a record and much of the easier-policy narrative is being priced in. I would keep existing tech exposure, avoid aggressively adding after the rally, and direct some new money towards gold/defensives. Earnings now need to justify elevated AI and growth expectations. Burry’s bearish positioning is worth noting, but not a timing signal by itself. My positioning: 50% wait, 30% tech on pullbacks, 20% gold/defensives.

July CPI: no surprises, but the market still found something to chew on Headline landed at 0.1% m/m, 3.4% y/y. Core came in at 0.2% m/m, 2.5% y/y — the slowest annual core print since February. Shelter and food each added 0.1%; energy was the drag, down on the month even as gasoline is still running +24.6% y/y. The "in-line" read is actually the story: it's the second straight month of cooling core inflation, which is why traders leaned harder into a September hold rather than a hike. Future now price meaningfully lower hike odds than a week ago — the fourth straight downward revision. Equities shrugged it off calmly (S&P +0.26%, Nasdaq +0.54%), but gold's +2% move to $4,471 says someone's still hedging. That's the tension: a "boring" CPI print that both confirms disinflation *and

July CPI: no surprises, but the market still found something to chew on Headline landed at 0.1% m/m, 3.4% y/y. Core came in at 0.2% m/m, 2.5% y/y — the slowest annual core print since February. Shelter and food each added 0.1%; energy was the drag, down on the month even as gasoline is still running +24.6% y/y. The "in-line" read is actually the story: it's the second straight month of cooling core inflation, which is why traders leaned harder into a September hold rather than a hike. Future now price meaningfully lower hike odds than a week ago — the fourth straight downward revision. Equities shrugged it off calmly (S&P +0.26%, Nasdaq +0.54%), but gold's +2% move to $4,471 says someone's still hedging. That's the tension: a "boring" CPI print that both confirms disinflation *and

Hello. The figure this market had spent two days sitting still for landed last night, and all four parts of it came in on the nose: July CPI was 3.4 per cent year on year and 0.1 per cent on the month, with the core at 2.5 per cent and 0.2 per cent. Traders trimmed their bets on a September rate rise, with the odds easing to about 33 per cent. The gate opened. The water did not run towards the mega-caps. Of the Magnificent Seven, only $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ rose, up 3.03 per cent. $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ fell 3.38 per cent, $Microsoft(MSFT)$ 2.26 per cent, $Amazon.

The U.S. critical-minerals trade is moving beyond tariffs and geopolitical headlines. Washington is now using equity investments, long-term loans, price floors and purchase guarantees to build an independent supply chain. That improves the sector’s long-term investment case—but the latest funding does not benefit every rare-earth stock equally. Where Is the Money Actually Going? On August 7, President Donald Trump met with more than 200 mining executives, investors, educators and government officials as part of his effort to make the United States a “minerals superpower.” Reuters estimated that the newly announced critical-minerals, battery and related investments totaled approximately $3 billion. The White House separately listed more than $2 billion in mining-related projects and over $1

July CPI delivered exactly what markets expected, yet the reaction shows expectations themselves are moving. With headline inflation easing to 3.4% and core to 2.5%, the case for a September hike weakened further, although inflation remains above target and the Fed is still cautious. For me, the next leg depends less on CPI and more on jobs, PCE and energy. Another soft labour report plus benign PCE could push hike expectations even lower, supporting growth stocks and gold. But renewed energy inflation or stronger demand could quickly revive the hawkish trade. So this CPI was not the catalyst. It removed an obstacle. The bigger question is whether the next data confirm a genuine disinflation trend or expose July as another temporary soft patch.

[Happy]Hi, Tigers! The AI Infra Print Party Is Here 🎉 If you thought the AI trade was running out of steam, Wednesday's earnings just told you otherwise. Three companies. Three different layers of the AI stack. All three blew past expectations — and by the closing bell, the moves were even bigger than the initial after-hours pop suggested. Here's the scoreboard:   The ripple effect was immediate and, by end of session, much bigger than early prints suggested: $NEBIUS(NBIS)$+27-34%, $IREN Ltd(IREN)$+10%, $Coherent(COHR)$+9%, $Ciena(CIEN)$+13%,

Interesting will look for more future updates

When major stock indices hover near all-time highs ahead of crucial inflation data, equity markets resemble a tightly coiled spring. In the days leading up to Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, major benchmarks—including the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ S&P 500 and the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Nasdaq Composite—entered a distinct holding pattern. Volume thinned, intraday ranges compressed, and market participants treated the headline inflation figure of 3.4% year-over-year as an absolute "pass mark" required to keep the multi-month bull market intact. Wednesday morning’s release delivered precisely what Wall Street ordered: headline CPI cooled to 3.4% YoY (down from 3.5% in June), while core inflation held

1. CPI delivered the outcome we wanted July US CPI rose just 0.1% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, down from 3.5% in June. Core CPI rose 0.2% monthly and eased to 2.5% year-on-year. This is not enough to declare inflation defeated, but it materially reduces the urgency for another Fed hike. Markets now place roughly a 60% probability on no September rate change, versus approximately 50-50 before CPI. That is a meaningful positive change from yesterday. My concern shifts away from immediate Fed tightening toward two longer-term issues: energy inflation + US bond supply. #1 opportunity — AI infrastructure just received another validation Cisco’s results are important. Fiscal Q4 revenue rose to US$17.25 billion from US$14.67 billion, while net income jumped to US$3.86 billion. More impor

Last Week's Recap 1. Weekly Market Digest: Stocks Flat, Yields at 2007 Highs, Inflation Moderates, Oil Rebounds Flat market — U.S. indexes were little changed as stocks took a breather after the prior week's record highs. S&P 500 and NASDAQ ended fractionally higher; Dow fractionally lower. Elevated yields — 30-year Treasury yield climbed back to ~5.26% (highest since 2007); 10-year at 4.69%, while the 2-year eased slightly to 4.17%. Moderating inflation — July CPI held steady at 3.4% annual rate (down from June's 3.5%); PPI showed inflation little changed from the prior month. Robust revenue — S&P 500 Q2 revenue growth on pace for 15% (highest since Q4 2021), per FactSet; earnings growth tracking above 50%, strongest since Q2 2021. Oil rebounds — U.S. crude rose above $82 Friday (

The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,785.76 after touching a record 7,816.70 during the week. We are basically sitting on the roof of the market. And right now my feed seems split into two camps. 🐂 Camp one: Buy the breakout. Don’t overthink it. New highs lead to new highs. 🐻 Camp two: Take profit immediately. Stocks are expensive. A correction has to be coming. I’m doing neither. I’m already invested, so I’m not running for the exit. But I’m also not throwing fresh money at record highs just because the chart is green. The market still has to earn my next dollar. And for me, that comes down to two dates. 📅 August 19: FOMC Minutes 📅 August 26: NVIDIA Earnings One tests the price investors are willing to pay for growth. The other tests whether the growth itself is still strong enough to deser

Hello. The weekend is over, and the most striking thing left from Friday's close was a pair of numbers pointing opposite ways: $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ up 6.50 per cent, $Broadcom(AVGO)$ down 5.94 per cent. Both are AI chip names, and they spent the day going in different directions. What the market was reading that day was not results. It was second-quarter position disclosures. Stanley Druckenmiller's 13F showed him loading up on Amazon and AMD while dumping a batch of chipmakers, and a Soros fund was adding AMD too, alongside $Micron Technology(MU)$, $Appli

Market participants recently received a double dose of macroeconomic relief as both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) demonstrated continued moderation. On paper, both metrics signalled the same underlying economic dynamic: inflationary pressures across the United States are steadily subsiding toward the Federal Reserve’s target. However, equity markets reacted with striking asymmetry to the two releases. While the CPI report triggered a modest, cautious advance, the subsequent PPI print unleashed an aggressive risk on surge across major benchmarks, driving tech indices toward fresh elevated levels. Understanding why Wall Street differentiated so sharply between these two inflation metrics holds the key to evaluating how much further this equity rally can run, w

I would stay invested in AI and semiconductors, but avoid aggressively adding at these levels. The macro backdrop has improved, but the market has already priced in a lot of good news. The S&P 500 is coming off another record close, while July retail sales fell 0.6%, the first decline in nine months. Combined with benign CPI/PPI and weaker employment, this strengthens the case for a September Fed hold.  My preference would be: 1. Keep AI/semis: The secular earnings story remains strong, although valuations and expectations are high. Applied Materials' 5% drop despite good guidance is a reminder that even strong AI-related results can disappoint when expectations are extreme.  2. Gradually rotate into financials/consumer: Not a wholesale switch, but these sectors offer diversi

Hello. The last of this week's AI hardware papers came in overnight, and both were sold. $Applied Materials(AMAT)$ earned US$3.50 a share, ahead of forecasts, grew revenue 25 per cent year on year, said AI-related demand hit a record, and guided next-quarter revenue above Wall Street expectations. It closed down 2.48 per cent and fell another 5.13 per cent after hours, to US$507.11. $Coherent(COHR)$ was starker. Its report the previous evening beat on both lines — earnings of US$1.74 a share against US$1.6474 expected, revenue of US$2.046 billion against US$2.025 billion — and it closed down 7.99 per cent yesterday at US$327.23, giving back the whole of the prior day's 8.24

Defense stocks have already rallied on higher budgets, Europe rearmament, drones and missile defense.$RTX Corp(RTX)$$Lockheed Martin(LMT)$$Northrop Grumman(NOC)$$Boeing(BA)$ The next theme may be simpler: the US needs to rebuild missile inventories. Recent conflicts have turned a long-known production gap into an urgent supply problem. Citrini Research notes that US missile and interceptor use over a five-month period exceeded any full year since the Gulf War. Air defense is the clearest case. CSIS estimates the Iran conflict consumed about 65% of pre-war US Patr

[Happy]Hi, Tigers! The AI Infra Print Party Is Here 🎉 If you thought the AI trade was running out of steam, Wednesday's earnings just told you otherwise. Three companies. Three different layers of the AI stack. All three blew past expectations — and by the closing bell, the moves were even bigger than the initial after-hours pop suggested. Here's the scoreboard:   The ripple effect was immediate and, by end of session, much bigger than early prints suggested: $NEBIUS(NBIS)$+27-34%, $IREN Ltd(IREN)$+10%, $Coherent(COHR)$+9%, $Ciena(CIEN)$+13%,

The U.S. critical-minerals trade is moving beyond tariffs and geopolitical headlines. Washington is now using equity investments, long-term loans, price floors and purchase guarantees to build an independent supply chain. That improves the sector’s long-term investment case—but the latest funding does not benefit every rare-earth stock equally. Where Is the Money Actually Going? On August 7, President Donald Trump met with more than 200 mining executives, investors, educators and government officials as part of his effort to make the United States a “minerals superpower.” Reuters estimated that the newly announced critical-minerals, battery and related investments totaled approximately $3 billion. The White House separately listed more than $2 billion in mining-related projects and over $1

Hello. The figure this market had spent two days sitting still for landed last night, and all four parts of it came in on the nose: July CPI was 3.4 per cent year on year and 0.1 per cent on the month, with the core at 2.5 per cent and 0.2 per cent. Traders trimmed their bets on a September rate rise, with the odds easing to about 33 per cent. The gate opened. The water did not run towards the mega-caps. Of the Magnificent Seven, only $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ rose, up 3.03 per cent. $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ fell 3.38 per cent, $Microsoft(MSFT)$ 2.26 per cent, $Amazon.

When major stock indices hover near all-time highs ahead of crucial inflation data, equity markets resemble a tightly coiled spring. In the days leading up to Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, major benchmarks—including the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ S&P 500 and the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Nasdaq Composite—entered a distinct holding pattern. Volume thinned, intraday ranges compressed, and market participants treated the headline inflation figure of 3.4% year-over-year as an absolute "pass mark" required to keep the multi-month bull market intact. Wednesday morning’s release delivered precisely what Wall Street ordered: headline CPI cooled to 3.4% YoY (down from 3.5% in June), while core inflation held

Disclaimer: Nothing I say or post should be considered financial advice. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. So will the constant pressure of inflation force the hands of the fed to make an adjustment to interest rates before end of 2026? Or will they find strategies to ease investors on inflationary risks? Let’s see how this plays out.[Cool]  @PawsAndProfits - Specialist in combining FA and TA for Options selling and Swing trading.[666] 

CPI came in roughly in line with expectations, so macro pressure did not get worse. But I think the more important signal today was the tape: $Lumentum(LITE)$ gained more than 13%, $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ rose over 8%, and MU added more than 6%. Optical and storage moved together again. 💡 The Setup: The Biggest Macro Risk Didn’t Hit July CPI was 3.4% YoY, while core CPI came in at 2.5%. That is not a huge bullish surprise. But inflation also did not reaccelerate, which matters after weeks of concern around oil, inflation and another round of Fed tightening. For high-multiple AI names, simply avoiding another macro shock was enough to help. 🚀 LITE: This Earnings Report Was Leg

@Daily_Discussion @TheBeautyofOptions @武松打的老虎 Sometimes We Feel It Is Market Manipulation to Force Margin Players Into Margin Calls 📉⚡ Every trader has experienced that uncomfortable feeling. The market suddenly drops before an important economic announcement, social media becomes filled with fear, and news headlines scream about disaster. In those moments it is easy to think, “This must be market manipulation.” When prices fall sharply, especially before major data such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), many investors feel that someone is deliberately pushing prices down to force margin traders into margin calls. Recently, marke

Markets Pause Near Record Highs Ahead of CPI — Is 3.4% the Pass Mark? U.S. stocks are pausing near record highs ahead of today’s July CPI report. The market expects headline inflation to ease to 3.4% year-on-year, with core inflation at 2.5%. But with expectations for a September rate hike now near 50-50, the details—not just the headline number—could determine whether the rally continues. Previous Data: Numbers and Impact * June CPI: Headline -0.4% MoM / +3.5% YoY; core 0.0% / +2.6% Impact: Lower gasoline and shelter inflation reduced rate-hike fears and supported bonds and technology stocks. * June PCE: Headline -0.1% MoM / +3.7% YoY; core +0.1% / +3.3% Impact: Monthly inflation cooled, but elevated annual PCE kept the Fed cautious. * June JOLTS: Job openings fell to 7.36 million Impact:

🌟🌟🌟The US Mid Election: Are you trading the pre election bump or sitting tight & waiting for post November stretch? Strategy A: Hunting the Bump This historical bulls will point out that the ruling party loves to sprinkle policy sugar all  over the economy in late summer & early autumn.  They would do anything to make voters feel wealthy going into the booths. Breaking news: Trump is weighing a major massive investor tax break: indexing Capital Gains Tax to inflation & expanding exemptions for primary home sales. If this happens, the stock market is likely to go up. Strategy B: Wait for November stretch Ignore the political theatre entirely & wait for the post November clearing when there is more certainty in the market.  The market does not like uncertainty

Hello. In the last piece Nvidia was out raising up to US$500 billion for AI infrastructure and the market had started asking where the money would come from. Last night we got half an answer: the money is there, but the people putting it up and the people spending it went in opposite directions. The providers all rose: KKR up 6.88 per cent, Apollo 6.26 per cent, Brookfield 4.77 per cent, Blackstone 3.89 per cent and BlackRock 1.54 per cent. The spenders fell for a second day: Alphabet down 3.61 per cent, its fourth decline in five sessions; $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ down 2.09 per cent, $Broadcom(AVGO)$ 1.5 per cent, $Apple(AAP

$Applied Materials(AMAT)$   Applied Materials reported quarterly revenue of $9.12 billion, above Wall Street’s $8.99 billion estimate. The chip-equipment maker also guided for next-quarter revenue of about $10.25 billion, well ahead of the $9.54 billion consensus, while adjusted EPS guidance of $4.02 topped expectations of $3.69. AI spending remains the main driver. Applied now expects advanced-packaging revenue to grow more than 70% in 2026, up from its previous forecast of more than 50%, as chipmakers keep investing in DRAM, leading-edge logic and packaging capacity. Still, the stock dropped more than 5% in extended trading. Shares had already more than doubled this year, leaving little room for anything shor

July CPI: no surprises, but the market still found something to chew on Headline landed at 0.1% m/m, 3.4% y/y. Core came in at 0.2% m/m, 2.5% y/y — the slowest annual core print since February. Shelter and food each added 0.1%; energy was the drag, down on the month even as gasoline is still running +24.6% y/y. The "in-line" read is actually the story: it's the second straight month of cooling core inflation, which is why traders leaned harder into a September hold rather than a hike. Future now price meaningfully lower hike odds than a week ago — the fourth straight downward revision. Equities shrugged it off calmly (S&P +0.26%, Nasdaq +0.54%), but gold's +2% move to $4,471 says someone's still hedging. That's the tension: a "boring" CPI print that both confirms disinflation *and

July CPI: no surprises, but the market still found something to chew on Headline landed at 0.1% m/m, 3.4% y/y. Core came in at 0.2% m/m, 2.5% y/y — the slowest annual core print since February. Shelter and food each added 0.1%; energy was the drag, down on the month even as gasoline is still running +24.6% y/y. The "in-line" read is actually the story: it's the second straight month of cooling core inflation, which is why traders leaned harder into a September hold rather than a hike. Future now price meaningfully lower hike odds than a week ago — the fourth straight downward revision. Equities shrugged it off calmly (S&P +0.26%, Nasdaq +0.54%), but gold's +2% move to $4,471 says someone's still hedging. That's the tension: a "boring" CPI print that both confirms disinflation *and