To The Moon

Hold. No reason to move either direction

Kevin Warsh isn’t going to fight the market tonight and will hold. Let the Santa Claus Rally begin! 🧑‍🎄

Given current US economic data and the upcoming election, the Fed is expected to hold rates steady for now. However, a rate hike toward the end of the year remains highly likely.

B

A

On hold!

B no change

Hold the rates steady!

The Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision at 2 PM ET today (2 AM Thursday, SGT). Markets are pricing in roughly a 90% chance that the Fed will hold its benchmark rate steady at 3.75%–4.00%. But here's the catch: A pause in October doesn't mean the rate hikes are over. According to CME FedWatch, markets are pricing in a 92.8% chance that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at 3.75%–4.00%. A CNBC survey tells a similar story: 93% of respondents expect a pause this week, but 76% believe another rate hike is coming in December. Why is the Fed still under pressure? Inflation remains stubbornly high. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.7% year over year in September, with rising energy costs adding to price pressures. Meanwhile, the labor market is losing momentu

The market is heading into another important test. On Tuesday, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 1.27%, while the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) rose 0.56% ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision. Semiconductor stocks led the advance, with AMD jumping 5.45%, Broadcom gaining 4.00%, and Nvidia climbing 0.90%. The rally suggests that investors are still willing to buy technology stocks despite concerns about elevated valuations and the direction of interest rates. However, one strong session does not necessarily mean the market has cleared its next hurdle. The key question is whether the Fed can provide enough reassurance on inflation and future policy to support another leg higher in technology stocks. 1. A rate hold may not be enough Markets largely expect the Fed to leave interest rate

QQQ rose as SoFi and Nebius gained more than 11 per cent The $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$, which tracks the Nasdaq 100, gained 1.27 per cent on Tuesday, while the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 0.60 per cent. $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ jumped 13.42 per cent, $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ gained 11.22 per cent and $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ rose 7.94 per cent. $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$, $Broadcom(AVGO)$ and

The AI rally is gaining momentum just as the Federal Reserve prepares to make its next policy decision. On Tuesday, QQQ rose 1.27% and SPY gained 0.56%, with investors positioning ahead of the announcement. Semiconductors led the advance. AMD jumped 5.45%, Broadcom gained 4.00%, and Nvidia added 0.90%. The pattern suggests investors are still willing to pay for exposure to AI infrastructure, but the wider market remains more selective. The real question is whether earnings can justify the rally if interest rates stay higher for longer. 1. The market is rewarding AI spending — for now AMD and Broadcom have attracted attention as demand expands beyond traditional GPUs into custom AI accelerators and networking infrastructure. These businesses could benefit as cloud providers and AI developer

I’d favour QQQ for the best balance of earnings and rate support. Big Tech earnings remain relatively strong, while a neutral or dovish Fed would ease valuation pressure on growth stocks. Chip leaders like AMD, AVGO and NVDA offer greater upside if AI spending stays strong, but they are also more exposed to high valuations and rising yields. SPY is the safer choice if the Fed turns hawkish, but QQQ looks like the better middle ground between growth potential and diversification. My pick: QQQ, with selective exposure to chip leaders.

Core CPI: 2.6%. Core PCE, the Fed's own gauge: 3.0%. Core CPI over the last three months, annualised: 3.4%. Three "core" numbers, one rate decision. The gap between them is the story. It is not the headline number minus the funds rate. The Fed decides today (usually 2 PM ET, which is 1 AM Thursday in Bangkok, 2 AM in Singapore). I am not predicting the decision. I want to show how I read the debate. The method works on any inflation scare. 1) Which "real rate"? The funds midpoint is 3.875%. Subtract headline CPI (3.7%) and you get 0.2. Subtract core CPI (2.6%) and you get 1.3. That is just arithmetic. It hides a choice. The choice is the gauge. The Fed targets PCE, not CPI. Normally core PCE runs below core CPI. From 1990 to 2019 it did in 86% of months, by a median of 0.47 points (FRED da

$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$   $NVIDIA(NVDA)$   $Lumentum(LITE)$   Buying the names the market is selling even on good news. So from that perspective, we like the semicap guys still, we like (ASML). I mean, their last print they guided for Q4 sales to increase 22 to 30%. And they're expecting that their fiscal twenty-six EUV sales are gonna be 65, targeting 85 and 27, and still have this potential for 110 EUVs in 2028. And so that's what underpins their fiscal 26 sales outlook, which is somewhere between 44 and 45 billion for 36% year over year growth. And that'

it is a good time to get another AI stock. [Miser]

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Can't wait for it to be listed will be another ai darling??? Let's wait to see ....but I feel the token usage benefits thr upcoming Anthropic public listing by proving that businesses rely on the AI for daily operations, generating predictable revenue, and driving massive financial growth. This continuous cash flow proves real-world value to investors, helping to justify a strong market valuation for anthropic ...... believe u guys have jump into the usage of ai too . 

can't wait for the IPO, seems like a long term buy and hold?

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The market is heading into another important test. On Tuesday, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 1.27%, while the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) rose 0.56% ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision. Semiconductor stocks led the advance, with AMD jumping 5.45%, Broadcom gaining 4.00%, and Nvidia climbing 0.90%. The rally suggests that investors are still willing to buy technology stocks despite concerns about elevated valuations and the direction of interest rates. However, one strong session does not necessarily mean the market has cleared its next hurdle. The key question is whether the Fed can provide enough reassurance on inflation and future policy to support another leg higher in technology stocks. 1. A rate hold may not be enough Markets largely expect the Fed to leave interest rate

QQQ rose as SoFi and Nebius gained more than 11 per cent The $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$, which tracks the Nasdaq 100, gained 1.27 per cent on Tuesday, while the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 0.60 per cent. $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ jumped 13.42 per cent, $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ gained 11.22 per cent and $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ rose 7.94 per cent. $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$, $Broadcom(AVGO)$ and

The AI rally is gaining momentum just as the Federal Reserve prepares to make its next policy decision. On Tuesday, QQQ rose 1.27% and SPY gained 0.56%, with investors positioning ahead of the announcement. Semiconductors led the advance. AMD jumped 5.45%, Broadcom gained 4.00%, and Nvidia added 0.90%. The pattern suggests investors are still willing to pay for exposure to AI infrastructure, but the wider market remains more selective. The real question is whether earnings can justify the rally if interest rates stay higher for longer. 1. The market is rewarding AI spending — for now AMD and Broadcom have attracted attention as demand expands beyond traditional GPUs into custom AI accelerators and networking infrastructure. These businesses could benefit as cloud providers and AI developer

The Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision at 2 PM ET today (2 AM Thursday, SGT). Markets are pricing in roughly a 90% chance that the Fed will hold its benchmark rate steady at 3.75%–4.00%. But here's the catch: A pause in October doesn't mean the rate hikes are over. According to CME FedWatch, markets are pricing in a 92.8% chance that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at 3.75%–4.00%. A CNBC survey tells a similar story: 93% of respondents expect a pause this week, but 76% believe another rate hike is coming in December. Why is the Fed still under pressure? Inflation remains stubbornly high. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.7% year over year in September, with rising energy costs adding to price pressures. Meanwhile, the labor market is losing momentu

Core CPI: 2.6%. Core PCE, the Fed's own gauge: 3.0%. Core CPI over the last three months, annualised: 3.4%. Three "core" numbers, one rate decision. The gap between them is the story. It is not the headline number minus the funds rate. The Fed decides today (usually 2 PM ET, which is 1 AM Thursday in Bangkok, 2 AM in Singapore). I am not predicting the decision. I want to show how I read the debate. The method works on any inflation scare. 1) Which "real rate"? The funds midpoint is 3.875%. Subtract headline CPI (3.7%) and you get 0.2. Subtract core CPI (2.6%) and you get 1.3. That is just arithmetic. It hides a choice. The choice is the gauge. The Fed targets PCE, not CPI. Normally core PCE runs below core CPI. From 1990 to 2019 it did in 86% of months, by a median of 0.47 points (FRED da

$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$   $NVIDIA(NVDA)$   $Lumentum(LITE)$   Buying the names the market is selling even on good news. So from that perspective, we like the semicap guys still, we like (ASML). I mean, their last print they guided for Q4 sales to increase 22 to 30%. And they're expecting that their fiscal twenty-six EUV sales are gonna be 65, targeting 85 and 27, and still have this potential for 110 EUVs in 2028. And so that's what underpins their fiscal 26 sales outlook, which is somewhere between 44 and 45 billion for 36% year over year growth. And that'

Given current US economic data and the upcoming election, the Fed is expected to hold rates steady for now. However, a rate hike toward the end of the year remains highly likely.

Kevin Warsh isn’t going to fight the market tonight and will hold. Let the Santa Claus Rally begin! 🧑‍🎄

Hold. No reason to move either direction

Hold the rates steady!

B no change

On hold!

B

A

🌟🌟🌟The armour is polished, the war chests are full and the battle lines are drawn.  Anthropic has just dropped its highly anticipated public S-1 Filing.  The financial crusade to capture the tech world's crown is officially underway.   Who is Behind the Anthropic Crusade? To understand why Wall Street is going crazy over Anthropic, you have to look at its origins.  Anthropic was founded in 2021 by Dario and Daniela Amodei, a brother and sister duo who previously held top research leadership roles at OpenAI.   Dario and Daniela Amodei left OpenAI in a dramatic split, taking a core group of researchers with them because they fundamentally disagreed with OpenAI's increasingly commercial, fast and loose direction.   Anthropic was built to be a Publi

Anthropic, the company behind Claude, has put its IPO plans in front of public-market investors. The company publicly filed its S-1 on October 26 and intends to list on Nasdaq under the symbol “ANT.” The initial prospectus still leaves the offering price range blank. Filing for an IPO does not mean the shares have begun trading. (SEC filing) Two reported financial figures stand out. According to CNBC’s coverage of the prospectus, Anthropic generated $16.29 billion in revenue in the first half of 2026, up 1,304% year over year, while reporting a net loss of $80.7 billion. How can revenue rise so quickly alongside such a large loss? A central part of the explanation is approximately $72 billion in accounting charges related to changes in the value of convertible notes. (CNBC’s financial brea

I’d favour QQQ for the best balance of earnings and rate support. Big Tech earnings remain relatively strong, while a neutral or dovish Fed would ease valuation pressure on growth stocks. Chip leaders like AMD, AVGO and NVDA offer greater upside if AI spending stays strong, but they are also more exposed to high valuations and rising yields. SPY is the safer choice if the Fed turns hawkish, but QQQ looks like the better middle ground between growth potential and diversification. My pick: QQQ, with selective exposure to chip leaders.

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to announce a "hawkish hold" this week, keeping its benchmark interest rate steady in the 3.75%–4.00% range while signaling that a December rate hike remains strongly on the table. In this article, we would like to share how we are analyzing the Federal Reserve's impending FOMC decision, bond yield dynamics, tech earnings reactions, volatility expectations, and tactical positioning strategies. 1. Deciphering the "Hawkish Hold" Framework A "hawkish hold" represents a sophisticated monetary strategy designed to balance two competing policy risks: over-tightening into slowing economic momentum versus prematurely loosening financial conditions before inflation is durably anchored to the Federal Reserve's 2.0% core target. By keeping rates stationary in th

QQQ rose while three large platforms declined The $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$, which tracks the Nasdaq 100, gained 1.11 per cent on Monday, while the $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ rose 0.71 per cent. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ fell 0.97 per cent, $Apple(AAPL)$ lost 1.10 per cent and Meta declined 1.88 per cent in the same session. The indices closed higher, but this was not a rally driven by all the large platforms together. Semiconductors and higher-beta growth shares were stronger. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ rose 5.21 pe

Anthropic’s IPO Twist: Public Investors May Buy the Shares, but Founders Keep Control Anthropic’s upcoming IPO has revealed an unusual governance structure: seven co-founders will retain majority voting control through a new class of shares. According to the reported prospectus, Anthropic has introduced Class F common stock. A single Class F share, held by a newly established entity called Founder LLC, will carry 50.1% of the company’s total voting power. Founder LLC’s sole members are Anthropic’s seven co-founders, who will generally decide how to exercise that voting power. This creates an important distinction for potential investors: buying Anthropic shares may provide an economic stake in the business without giving shareholders equivalent influence over its decisions. 🔍 How Does the