To The Moon

Core Conclusion: The $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ closed at $251.8, approaching its all-time high. The probability of a 25bp rate cut at the December 11 FOMC meeting stands at 87%, but expectations for 2026 rate cuts may be slashed from four to just two. The RSI is severely overbought at 79.3, with volatility poised to surge above 35%. Short-term traders should set a stop-loss at $249, while long-term investors should wait for a pullback to $243.Please Note: This analysis is based on historical probabilities and does not constitute investment guarantees.I. The "Sweet Trap" in Rate Cut ExpectationsThe market has almost fully priced in a December rate cut, but the real risk lies in 2026:Three Key ContradictionsStubborn Inflation: November core CPI

Core Conclusion: The $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ closed at $251.8, approaching its all-time high. The probability of a 25bp rate cut at the December 11 FOMC meeting stands at 87%, but expectations for 2026 rate cuts may be slashed from four to just two. The RSI is severely overbought at 79.3, with volatility poised to surge above 35%. Short-term traders should set a stop-loss at $249, while long-term investors should wait for a pullback to $243.Please Note: This analysis is based on historical probabilities and does not constitute investment guarantees.I. The "Sweet Trap" in Rate Cut ExpectationsThe market has almost fully priced in a December rate cut, but the real risk lies in 2026:Three Key ContradictionsStubborn Inflation: November core CPI