Here's the $1 Billion Battle! Retail Traders vs. Wall Street Market Makers - Who Will Have the Last
What a drama! Just when we thought we could relax during the Spring Festival, the options market keeps delivering surprises. Since most people in our community are involved in the NVIDIA trade, it's crucial to understand the new wealthy players entering the market and market makers' responses.Before diving into today's story, here's some background:The NVIDIA procurement guy is back, choosing to buy $300 million in straddle optionsOn Monday, January 27th, NVIDIA plunged 16.97% to close at 118.42 due to the impact of Deepseek's algorithm optimization. The next day, institutions released reports stating Deepseek had no impact on NVIDIA, and the stock rebounded 8.9% to 128.99, though still at relatively low levels.On Wedne
1. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Earnings AnalysisBullish Future Outlook + Exciting Innovations + Favorable Administration = Tesla to 700+ by Year End! In Q4’24 Tesla produced 459k vehicles and delivered 495k, setting new records for both production and deliveries. Even with the record numbers, they saw a 71% decline YoY in Net Income equating to $2.3 billion for the quarter (there was a a one-time tax benefit in Q4’23 that boosted their Net Income). We saw misses in their revenue ($25.7B vs $27.2B) and EPS (.73 vs .77). Gross profits also declined by 6% on a YoY basis. Diving into the earnings call, Elon emphasized the transformative potential of the company’s advancements in robotics and autonomous vehicles. He believes these innovations are likely to po
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some option stratgies with you!1.Missed the 0DTE trade on $.SPX(.SPX)$ when it hit 6078. Was gonna write a call credit spread but didn't pull the trigger fast enough. Had the strikes and premium we wanted, but waited too long.6100 is the largest gamma call stack. We assume this would hold as strong resistance.Image
The NVIDIA procurement guy is back, choosing to buy $300 million in straddle options
After the January FOMC meeting ended, there was no rate hike as expected. Powell maintained his previous stance on controlling inflation, but during the Q&A session, he mentioned he hadn't communicated with Trump, leaving uncertainty about whether his attitude might change after such communication. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ According to Wednesday's options opening details, this week's bullish top positions exceeded bearish ones, maintaining the original judgment above 120, with the upper limit raised to 130.Long-term outlook remains bearish, with strike prices down to 100, with positions extending to June. This is understandable - January's Deepseek incident suggests companies will continue to enhance computing power this year, leading to ongoing questio
TRADE PLAN for Thursday ✅ $.SPX(.SPX)$ if it can hold above 6034 in the first hour tmrw we can see SPX retest 6071. SPX through 6071 can run to 6100+SPX 6060C is best above 6034 $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ defended the 120 support level again. NVDA through 127 will set up for 136-140 in February.NVDA 127C can work above 125 tomorrow $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ if it holds 400 on the gap after earnings we can see 414,429 next. TSLA 410C is best near 400 tomorrow $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ reported quarterly earnings of $0.73 per share which missed the analyst consensus estimate of $0.76 by 3.95 percent. This is a 2.82 percent increase over earnin
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ These were the #OptionsTrading positions we took on TSLA to play it for earnings today.Bought: - 495 strike calls - 352.5 strike putsWrote (sold): - 385 strike puts - 350 strike put - 315 strike putsPlan for tomorrow: - roll the 315P up to 350P to capture more premium if there is any "meat on the bone" still left - hold the 352.P as a hedge against the 350P - hold the 385P to see if we can get assigned shares by end of week (and, if it looks like that's not gonna happen, then we will roll up the strike to capture more premium) - hold the 495C into next weekImage
Happy New Year everyone, wishing you prosperity in the Year of the Snake.I was stunned by Tuesday's options activity, please look at the screenshot:Buy to Open:$NVDA 20250221 119.0 CALL$ , bought 29.1K contracts, transaction value $23.99M.$GLW 20250321 55.0 CALL$ , bought 25K contracts, transaction value $2.6M.$KWEB 20250516 37.0 CALL$ , bought 19.3K contracts, transaction value $1.36M.$QQQ 20250221 535.0 CALL$ , bought 19K contracts, transaction value $8.98M.
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some option strategies with you!1.TRADE PLAN for FOMC Wednesday 📈 $.SPX(.SPX)$ almost completely recovered from the Deepseek news. SPX through 6071 tomorrow will up for 6100 test. IF SPX reclaims 6100 we can 6250 in FebruarySPX 6100C is best above 6071 $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ BOTTOM is in. NVDA above 127 can test 132,136 in February. NVDA Feb 7 130C is best above 127 $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ setting up for 700+ after earnings. It's possible we see META run to 1000 this year. Needs to get to 800 by the end of Q2.META 720C can work as an earnings lotto2.You had your chance to buy the dip on $N
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some option strategies with you!1.Idea on $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ Earnings date: Jan. 29 after market closeExpected move: 6.5%Trade ideas:- Sell-to-open cash-secured puts, Jan 31 expiration, targeting strikes in the 540-590 range. Playing this for assignment of shares.- Am also looking at a 1x1x1 buy-write-write on the Jan 31 exp, 635/632.5/600 put strikes- Buy-to-open call debit spread, Feb 7 exp, 700/705 call strikesPoints to consider:- Expected move places downside to 634 and upside to 722 - 20% to downside from current price is at 539- 200EMA is at 539/540- Volume stack between 560-590 levels- Volume point-of-control at 560-570- Gamma is heavier on the call strikes vs. put strikes (700 call is biggest
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ On Monday, NVIDIA's options trading volume ranked first in US stocks, reaching 10.18 million, triple the average volume!The data is very rich but relatively concentrated. Based on Monday's options opening details, the estimated near-term fluctuation range is 110-130. Whether it tends upward or downward depends on tech companies' earnings calls in the coming days and whether management's outlook on AI capital support has changed. The expectation gap could reach 100.Institutional sell call rollovers occurred in four ranges: 129-134, 127-132, 131-136, and 130-135. This week's upper limit is seen at 127.Based on this week's options opening situation, closing around 120 on Friday would be appropriate, though earnings report interference
Filter bubble burst leading to revaluation - an excellent buying opportunity
Pure panic selling and deleveraging market conditions - time to buy the dip. We might see several such opportunities this year. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ It's now confirmed that this major drop was mainly triggered by DeepSeek. Why did DeepSeek, released earlier, cause today's drop?Because today DeepSeek topped Apple's App Store free app download rankings in both China and US regions, surpassing ChatGPT in US downloads.DeepSeek R1's significantly reduced AI training and inference costs, and this top ranking symbolizes global recognition of this advantage, directly competing with and outperforming US AI.QiMai Data screenshotActually, DeepSeek's progress isn't negative for the AI industry; rather, it accelerates the entire sector. Industry upgrade and scale ex
I decided to build a simple option screener in python using free api's looking for cheap option close to in the money with decent iv and delta. Remember I am starting from $300 USD so need cheap ones while managing risk 🫥 Now with this trade I didn't do any research which I might come to regret 😆however I just put an order in and it triggered.🙈 $SENS 20250321 1.0 CALL$ this is the order and the stock is $Senseonics(SENS)$ I will share some more about the other options on the screener however just need to build a list of ticker options for python to run through 😩
A moment of tranquility that needs no words, feeling very peaceful. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Expected price range next week is 140-150. Friday's pullback is normal, no need to worry. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Tesla has earnings next week. Looking at institutional strike prices sold, there seems to be intentionally high pricing, even possibility of post-earnings rise.Could also be to avoid hurting short sellers after earnings when selling calls, though I don't see many short positions.Main institutional selling ranges are 440-480, 435-472.5, and 437.5-475.Next week's earnings will mainly depend on Musk's future promises. Tesla's current high valuation mainly comes from FSD iterations, Cybercab/Robotaxi deployment milesto
Hello everyone!Today i want to share some trading strategies with you!1.TRADE PLAN for LOTTO Friday 🔥 $.SPX(.SPX)$ printed a new ATH at 6118 today. SPX setting up for 6250+ in February. We have FOMC+ Tech earnings coming up. SPX 6130C best above 6110 tmrw $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ is right near ATH at 638 above can run to 650+. META setting up for a move to 656 leading into earningsMETA 640C best above 636 tomorrow $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ moved r/g today after dropping to 143. NVDA setting up for 153 ATH soon.NVDA Jan 31 150C best above 1472. $MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ $700/share in play this year? Let's dive deeper. 👇 Technicals:
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some option strategies with you!1.Wrote this $.SPX(.SPX)$ trade earlier today. Should expire worthless for max profit! 🤑Went with a 6020/6010 put credit spread & 6120/6125 call credit spread. Kinda like a modified Iron Condor with an additional put spread position.Image2.Hmmm ... $Apple(AAPL)$ at this current level for a long play heading into earnings? Or a quick #Optionselling play to pick up premium? 🤔😬CSP - Jan 24 exp, 220 strike... or, straight up buy ATM callsImageImage3. $Texas Instruments(TXN)$ reports earnings after the closing bell tomorrow. Am thinking of selling a put to finance buying a call debit spread. Obvi
The current market situation shows Trump officially taking office, and S&P 500 Q4 earnings per share beating expectations, largely eliminating downward trend risks. No need to worry about major pullbacks before next week's tech earnings; selling puts carries lower risk. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Not much to say here - just maintain the bullish outlook.After the CES conference in early January, institutions set a target price of 160. The stock price will likely align with this before earnings disclosure, with minimal pullback risk.Wednesday's options activity shows long-term bullish sentiment with some pullback trend this week - sell puts on dips. Friday closing >140.Institutional sell calls got squeezed again, they've rolled positions to next week's 1
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some option strategies with you!1.TRADE PLAN for Thursday 📈 $.SPX(.SPX)$ 6100 ATH big level to get through to set up for 6250+ in February. We have FOMC + tech earnings next week. Let's see if SPX closes above 6100 by FridaySPX 6120C best above 6100 $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ setting up for All time highs at 153 by next week. if NVDA can close through 149 it can run to 153 quicklyNVDA Jan 31 155C best near 149 $Microsoft(MSFT)$ to 452-455 in play by Friday. MSFT ran 17 pts today, price action strongMSFT 450C best above 446 tomorrowFollow me to learn more about analysis!!
Stop making these common mistakes if you want to be a profitable trader in 2025.1. Stop averaging down. This is a loser's strategy. If a trade is going to work, there should never be a need to buy more. Averaging down leads to oversizing and will bring many emotions into the trade.2. Stop feeling FOMO. Fomo is an account killer. It causes you to enter trades you have minimal understanding of. You're chasing money and following blindly into a stock you have no business being a part of. Associate FOMO with losing. IF you recognize you're feeling FOMO, you need to sit on your hands.3. Stop relying on others to buy/sell/hold a position. IF you find yourself constantly asking another person if you should hold/sell a position. You will fail. You didn't have a plan before you entered a trade and
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some option strategies with you!1.TRADE PLAN for Wednesday 📈 $.SPX(.SPX)$ price action strong again today after defending the 6k support. SPX is setting up to test all time highs at 6100 in the next week. I'd stay bullish above 6034 SPX 6070C is best above 6034 $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ needs to reclaim 429 to set up for a move to 450+. Wait for the 429 levelTSLA 445C can work above 429 $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ higher on Trump AI news today. If NVDA can form a base above 140 we will see a move back to all time highs at 153 in FebruaryNVDA Jan 31 145C is best above 1422.Being bearish in this market is going to be very costly for anyone with
Here's the $1 Billion Battle! Retail Traders vs. Wall Street Market Makers - Who Will Have the Last
What a drama! Just when we thought we could relax during the Spring Festival, the options market keeps delivering surprises. Since most people in our community are involved in the NVIDIA trade, it's crucial to understand the new wealthy players entering the market and market makers' responses.Before diving into today's story, here's some background:The NVIDIA procurement guy is back, choosing to buy $300 million in straddle optionsOn Monday, January 27th, NVIDIA plunged 16.97% to close at 118.42 due to the impact of Deepseek's algorithm optimization. The next day, institutions released reports stating Deepseek had no impact on NVIDIA, and the stock rebounded 8.9% to 128.99, though still at relatively low levels.On Wedne
The NVIDIA procurement guy is back, choosing to buy $300 million in straddle options
After the January FOMC meeting ended, there was no rate hike as expected. Powell maintained his previous stance on controlling inflation, but during the Q&A session, he mentioned he hadn't communicated with Trump, leaving uncertainty about whether his attitude might change after such communication. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ According to Wednesday's options opening details, this week's bullish top positions exceeded bearish ones, maintaining the original judgment above 120, with the upper limit raised to 130.Long-term outlook remains bearish, with strike prices down to 100, with positions extending to June. This is understandable - January's Deepseek incident suggests companies will continue to enhance computing power this year, leading to ongoing questio
Happy New Year everyone, wishing you prosperity in the Year of the Snake.I was stunned by Tuesday's options activity, please look at the screenshot:Buy to Open:$NVDA 20250221 119.0 CALL$ , bought 29.1K contracts, transaction value $23.99M.$GLW 20250321 55.0 CALL$ , bought 25K contracts, transaction value $2.6M.$KWEB 20250516 37.0 CALL$ , bought 19.3K contracts, transaction value $1.36M.$QQQ 20250221 535.0 CALL$ , bought 19K contracts, transaction value $8.98M.
1. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Earnings AnalysisBullish Future Outlook + Exciting Innovations + Favorable Administration = Tesla to 700+ by Year End! In Q4’24 Tesla produced 459k vehicles and delivered 495k, setting new records for both production and deliveries. Even with the record numbers, they saw a 71% decline YoY in Net Income equating to $2.3 billion for the quarter (there was a a one-time tax benefit in Q4’23 that boosted their Net Income). We saw misses in their revenue ($25.7B vs $27.2B) and EPS (.73 vs .77). Gross profits also declined by 6% on a YoY basis. Diving into the earnings call, Elon emphasized the transformative potential of the company’s advancements in robotics and autonomous vehicles. He believes these innovations are likely to po
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some option stratgies with you!1.Missed the 0DTE trade on $.SPX(.SPX)$ when it hit 6078. Was gonna write a call credit spread but didn't pull the trigger fast enough. Had the strikes and premium we wanted, but waited too long.6100 is the largest gamma call stack. We assume this would hold as strong resistance.Image
Filter bubble burst leading to revaluation - an excellent buying opportunity
Pure panic selling and deleveraging market conditions - time to buy the dip. We might see several such opportunities this year. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ It's now confirmed that this major drop was mainly triggered by DeepSeek. Why did DeepSeek, released earlier, cause today's drop?Because today DeepSeek topped Apple's App Store free app download rankings in both China and US regions, surpassing ChatGPT in US downloads.DeepSeek R1's significantly reduced AI training and inference costs, and this top ranking symbolizes global recognition of this advantage, directly competing with and outperforming US AI.QiMai Data screenshotActually, DeepSeek's progress isn't negative for the AI industry; rather, it accelerates the entire sector. Industry upgrade and scale ex
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some option strategies with you!1.Idea on $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ Earnings date: Jan. 29 after market closeExpected move: 6.5%Trade ideas:- Sell-to-open cash-secured puts, Jan 31 expiration, targeting strikes in the 540-590 range. Playing this for assignment of shares.- Am also looking at a 1x1x1 buy-write-write on the Jan 31 exp, 635/632.5/600 put strikes- Buy-to-open call debit spread, Feb 7 exp, 700/705 call strikesPoints to consider:- Expected move places downside to 634 and upside to 722 - 20% to downside from current price is at 539- 200EMA is at 539/540- Volume stack between 560-590 levels- Volume point-of-control at 560-570- Gamma is heavier on the call strikes vs. put strikes (700 call is biggest
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ On Monday, NVIDIA's options trading volume ranked first in US stocks, reaching 10.18 million, triple the average volume!The data is very rich but relatively concentrated. Based on Monday's options opening details, the estimated near-term fluctuation range is 110-130. Whether it tends upward or downward depends on tech companies' earnings calls in the coming days and whether management's outlook on AI capital support has changed. The expectation gap could reach 100.Institutional sell call rollovers occurred in four ranges: 129-134, 127-132, 131-136, and 130-135. This week's upper limit is seen at 127.Based on this week's options opening situation, closing around 120 on Friday would be appropriate, though earnings report interference
TRADE PLAN for Thursday ✅ $.SPX(.SPX)$ if it can hold above 6034 in the first hour tmrw we can see SPX retest 6071. SPX through 6071 can run to 6100+SPX 6060C is best above 6034 $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ defended the 120 support level again. NVDA through 127 will set up for 136-140 in February.NVDA 127C can work above 125 tomorrow $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ if it holds 400 on the gap after earnings we can see 414,429 next. TSLA 410C is best near 400 tomorrow $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ reported quarterly earnings of $0.73 per share which missed the analyst consensus estimate of $0.76 by 3.95 percent. This is a 2.82 percent increase over earnin
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ These were the #OptionsTrading positions we took on TSLA to play it for earnings today.Bought: - 495 strike calls - 352.5 strike putsWrote (sold): - 385 strike puts - 350 strike put - 315 strike putsPlan for tomorrow: - roll the 315P up to 350P to capture more premium if there is any "meat on the bone" still left - hold the 352.P as a hedge against the 350P - hold the 385P to see if we can get assigned shares by end of week (and, if it looks like that's not gonna happen, then we will roll up the strike to capture more premium) - hold the 495C into next weekImage
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some option strategies with you!1.TRADE PLAN for FOMC Wednesday 📈 $.SPX(.SPX)$ almost completely recovered from the Deepseek news. SPX through 6071 tomorrow will up for 6100 test. IF SPX reclaims 6100 we can 6250 in FebruarySPX 6100C is best above 6071 $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ BOTTOM is in. NVDA above 127 can test 132,136 in February. NVDA Feb 7 130C is best above 127 $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ setting up for 700+ after earnings. It's possible we see META run to 1000 this year. Needs to get to 800 by the end of Q2.META 720C can work as an earnings lotto2.You had your chance to buy the dip on $N
The current market situation shows Trump officially taking office, and S&P 500 Q4 earnings per share beating expectations, largely eliminating downward trend risks. No need to worry about major pullbacks before next week's tech earnings; selling puts carries lower risk. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Not much to say here - just maintain the bullish outlook.After the CES conference in early January, institutions set a target price of 160. The stock price will likely align with this before earnings disclosure, with minimal pullback risk.Wednesday's options activity shows long-term bullish sentiment with some pullback trend this week - sell puts on dips. Friday closing >140.Institutional sell calls got squeezed again, they've rolled positions to next week's 1
Apple: Will it Drop to 200? & Buy 100 Shares of NVIDIA for $6,000!
$Apple(AAPL)$ Apple recently faced two negative factors: first, Pelosi disclosed selling 31,600 Apple shares on Tuesday; second, TSMC's earnings report last week showed a quarter-over-quarter revenue decline due to seasonal factors in smartphone demand.The stock price has pulled back from its peak of 260 to 220, returning to levels before Trump's presidential campaign success.Considering Pelosi sold her shares on the 14th, after Tuesday's pullback, it might seem like a good opportunity to buy the dip or sell puts, but what's the actual situation?According to options trading details, put option positions show strong bearish signals, with downside targets at 210, 200, and 180:This time, sorting by open interest is more telling since Apple's downward
Open Interest Data Update: Chinese Stock Options See Large Orders Exit, Market Makers Profit Another
In December, we summarized the bullish positioning in Chinese stocks, with two large orders particularly noteworthy: 98,000 contracts of $YINN 20260116 27.0 CALL$ traded in one day, and 210,000 contracts of $CHAU 20250516 15.0 CALL$ .These two large orders were positioned just before the December 9th surge, becoming highly visible in the market, with various media speculating about the source of the funds. After a month of volatility, on January 10th evening, Yinn plunged 8.69% and CHAU dropped 4.44%, finally forcing these large positions to close at a loss.According to Monday's updated open interest data,
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Morgan Stanley's new Tesla report title blinded my dog's eyes: "Revisiting our Tesla Robotaxi and Mobility Model: Target to $430, Bull Case $800"What's the main driver for Tesla's stock price increase? It's physical AI!However, for such an important driving force, the article didn't provide specific quantitative data - those who know, know.The article ends with three price targets: base case $430, bull case $800, and bear case $200.After reading, I'm at a loss for words - can only say it's invincible, though I won't specify in what way.Also, institutions' sell call 405 from yesterday got squeezed. Well, let's wait for earnings. $KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF(KWEB)$ &
$300 Million NVIDIA Call Options Purchase, With a Surprising Strike Price!
$NVDA$After TSM's earnings report on Thursday showing long-term AI benefits, I expected to see large bullish options positions in NVIDIA. I was stunned to see 22,800 new June contracts with a $5 strike price! $NVDA 20250620 5.0 CALL$ With NVIDIA trading around $135, a $5 strike means deep in-the-money options, with prices approximately equal to stock price minus strike price. Each contract cost around $13,000, making the 22,800 contracts worth about $296 million.Deep in-the-money options have poor liquidity, and since this large order wasn't executed on-exchange, it took considerable time to fill.While the strike price may not provide much directional guidance, a $300 million purchase representing 2.28 million shares upon
I deeply miss the washout from August 5th last year. It's so difficult now.$NVDA$Let me first review last Friday - Wall Street was particularly crafty and didn't follow the usual playbook.Last Friday January 10th, due to large opening positions in 125 put $NVDA 20250117 125.0 PUT$ , considering time decay's impact on option value, I thought there might be a short squeeze in the opposite direction - a sharp drop Friday followed by a gap down Monday, so I bought 125 puts waiting for intraday decline.However, shortly after market open there was a deep V-shaped recovery. The rebound caused call volume to disperse put volume - option trading didn't become one-sided. At 12PM I saw no opportunity for the second half, so I closed
A moment of tranquility that needs no words, feeling very peaceful. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Expected price range next week is 140-150. Friday's pullback is normal, no need to worry. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Tesla has earnings next week. Looking at institutional strike prices sold, there seems to be intentionally high pricing, even possibility of post-earnings rise.Could also be to avoid hurting short sellers after earnings when selling calls, though I don't see many short positions.Main institutional selling ranges are 440-480, 435-472.5, and 437.5-475.Next week's earnings will mainly depend on Musk's future promises. Tesla's current high valuation mainly comes from FSD iterations, Cybercab/Robotaxi deployment milesto
I decided to build a simple option screener in python using free api's looking for cheap option close to in the money with decent iv and delta. Remember I am starting from $300 USD so need cheap ones while managing risk 🫥 Now with this trade I didn't do any research which I might come to regret 😆however I just put an order in and it triggered.🙈 $SENS 20250321 1.0 CALL$ this is the order and the stock is $Senseonics(SENS)$ I will share some more about the other options on the screener however just need to build a list of ticker options for python to run through 😩