2.63K
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2025-03-02
The top contributors to performance were Fortinet and Visa in FEB
Portfolio at the end of February 2025February performance: -2.0%YTD: 0.5%FCF ROC = 39%FCF per share CAGR (5yr) = 23%FCF Linearity (5yr) = 0.93FCF Margin = 36%FCF Margin Expansion (5yr) = 6%FCF Yield = 2.85%We exited our position in Microsoft and began a new position in $Technology One, Ltd.(THNOF)$ . The top contributors to performance were $Fortinet(FTNT)$ and $Visa(V)$ .The top detractors from performance were $Cadence Design(CDNS)$ and $Applied Materials(AMAT)$ .PS：Sadly the semis still hyper volatile...Probably always will be, but definitely less now there are multiple drivers
19.48K
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2025-03-02
TSLA Outlook: Corrective Rally Before Major Downturn
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ has topped, as warned to members on 02/09, but it holds a 5-wave diagonal structure at Weekly FVG support suggesting a corrective rally before escalating lower.Lean is Tesla rallies from here to at least cross 325, with upside potential to 362-384. However, that zone should be the termination point to produce the next major wave down.Ultimately, expecting this upcoming rally being the last chance $TSLA holders have to exit before crashing to 138-100 over the next 1-3 years. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2503(ESmain)$
TOPGuavaxf3006: Don’t try to time this. I know it is tempting to believe this and take a punt. But what if it does not follow this projection? I think there is too much negativeness towards Tesla right now. Look at the recent sales announcements for the Chinese EV’s. Showing huge increases in sales whereas Tesla is teporting reversals. And this is the same for European Tesla sales too. Down 50% !
1.81K
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2025-03-02
SPX Outlook: Bullish Bounce or Bearish Trend Ahead?
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ resolved higher as expected after completing its ABC down from its peak.The decline from the high is either a bearish 1st wave to begin the multi-year bear market, or the completion of [W4] to produce one last final high for [W5] before topping.Both scenarios suggest the Daily FVG at 6043-6084 being reached 🎯If a bearish WXY model is formed there, the 3rd wave is the next move targeting the 5773 yearly low w/ downside for more However, a Daily close above 6084 would suggest one last high above 6147 to terminate [W5] to then top and crash. This is invalidated below 5837.66.Currently, just looking higher against Friday’s 5837 low to which a bullish SMT divergence formed against $NASDAQ 100(ND
TOPGreat job on your latest stock market success! Your commitment to research and analysis is evident in your results.Trade with Tiger Cash Boost Account and use contra trading toenhance your strategies."Welcome to open a CBAtoday and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HKand US stocks. as well as ETFs. How to open a CBA. How to link your CDP account. Other FAQs on CBA. Cash Boost Account Website.
1.44K
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2025-03-02
AAII Bearish Sentiment recorded the 4th most bearish reading in the last 30+ years
This is a WILD stat:AAII Bearish Sentiment recorded the 4th most bearish reading in the last 30+ years. The other 3 instances:1.) March 2009…( $S&P 500(.SPX)$ -49% off highs )2.) October 2008…( SPX -39% off highs )3.) Sept. 2022…( SPX -25% off highs )4.) Feb 2025…( SPX -3.1% off highs)Image
28.90K
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2025-03-01
Magnificent 7 : Bear Market Proof ?
Past Month Performance. Over the past 4 weeks, US stock market indexes have experienced significant volatility and overall declines: (see below) US composite indexes - past 6 months performances The Dow has seen a decrease of about -3.592% for the month. The S&P 500 has fallen nearly -3.40% in February, with its most recent drop of -1.59% on 26 Feb 2025, contributing to the downward trend. The Nasdaq Composite has suffered the most, declining approx. -6.02% during this period. These market declines are closely tied to the performance of the Magnificent Seven stocks, particularly $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ , that saw an -2.5% drop on 26 Feb 2025, dragging down the tech-heavy Nasdaq and highlighting the outsized influence these stocks have on overall market
TOPGreat job on your latest stock market success! Your commitment to research and analysis is evident in your results.Trade with Tiger Cash Boost Account and use contra trading toenhance your strategies."Welcome to open a CBAtoday and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HKand US stocks. as well as ETFs. How to open a CBA. How to link your CDP account. Other FAQs on CBA. Cash Boost Account Website.
5.03K
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2025-03-01
Daily Hot Stocks - SPY, AMZN & CAVA
1. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $580 broke and gap filledWe are now at smart money zone. If $580 can’t hold, next stop is $570 That would break structure for the first time since 2023Then it’s full 🐻 modeImage2. $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ We're gearing up for at least a 5% rally from this point before a potential rejection could occur.The short-term price action indicates oversold conditions, and it looks like buyers are stepping in.I'll aim to take profits as soon as we start to see signs of weakness on the BX.Image3. $CAVA Group Inc.(CAVA)$ -36% since the call outNow approaching smart money zoneThis could be a solid dip buy opportunity long term. That said, if we b
9.12K
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2025-03-01
I am still expecting worst case $240 - $260 for TSLA
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Monthly BX is now confirming LH which is a sign of macro weaknessI am still expecting worst case $240 - $260 since that would be our smart money zone and monthly market bias.Both are extreme discounted ranges.Daily BX has NOT confirmed HL yet, but it seems were headed for it soon.I think we could get a relief rally in the coming weeks that is met with ONE more sell offImageHere's the update we've been anticipating!The daily BX has closed at a higher low, but we're still waiting for the weekly to confirm this as a higher low as well. Without this confirmation, we can't definitively say we've hit the long-term bottom.Expect the price to likely retest the $330 - $350 range before potentially facing rejection.From there, we'll mon
TOPI sold Telsa at low and mid 300 range to invest into MSTR, only to face a greater losw
5.52K
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2025-03-01
GRAB, SOUN, AAL, PLTR & NFLX Weekly Update
1. $Grab Holdings(GRAB)$ Couple weeks ago we were looking for this breakout when the BX was making LH and showing buying pressureThis week we are confirming LL 🔴 which is a sign of institutional sellingWith a volume gap from $4.80 - $3.75 there is a SOLID chance we sell offI think this was a bull trap to get retail to hold the 🎒 for the next 6 monthsImage2. $SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ Market Bias held and now we have three days in a row of bullish accumulation on the BXStrong sign bottom is in.Next upside target $13.50Image3. $American Airlines(AAL)$ Trading at discounted range inside the weekly market bias hit$14 volume shelf and worst case downside before a bounce
8.83K
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2025-03-01
LYB Expects 2025 Recovery to Support 6.9% Yield
6.9% Yield.Despite a high cash payout ratio of 106.3%, LYB intends to increase its dividend in 2025, backed by a $3.4 billion cash position.LYB reported growing industrial demand in North America, with high utilization rates and cost advantages from low natural gas prices.LYB is reviewing six underperforming assets in Europe, potentially leading to divestitures, closures, or efficiency investments.LYB is shutting down its Texas refinery, incurring $345 million in closing costs but freeing up $240 million in working capital.LYB’s net debt/EBITDA ratio of 2.1x is below the industry median of 2.4x.Investment Thesis $LyondellBasell Industries NV(LYB)$ is an international manufacturer of chemicals, with more than 20% global market share in ethylene prod
3.43K
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2025-03-01
Hot Stocks Monthly Charts - SOFI, CMG, QQQ and BTC
1. $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ Big day tomorrow. First month since the expansion that we’re confirming LH on the Bx. This means Wall Street is leaving. In most cases price will either compress or sell off back into the market bias Both are NOT ideal environments $10-$11 🎯 worst caseImage2. $Chipotle Mexican Grill(CMG)$ Market corrections give us opportunity CMG approaching market bias. I’m expecting worst case $45 before the bottom is in. Will keep an eye on this going into Q2Image3. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ Closing today with 🔴 BXLast time this happened was January 2022QQQ sold off 35% in 11 monthsBulls still have the trend, but it seems macro buyers are leaving.Imag
TOPHope to see $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ rise
2.36K
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2025-03-01
AAPL, NVDA & CELH Monthly Update
1. $Apple(AAPL)$ Market Bias and macro trend is still bullish ✅However BX is closing LH twice now. This is normally a signal we’re going to sit sideways or sell off to $200. Will be sitting out of this name for a whileImage2. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Second month in a row we're closing with 🔴 BXLast month we sadly called the top due to this signal. Last time this happened $NVDA sold off -65% in 11 monthsI wouldn't dare short this, but not an ideal environment to be longImage 3. $Celsius Holdings, Inc.(CELH)$ First time since Aug 2022 that we've seen the Monthly BX close with HL 👀Image
1.64K
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2025-03-01
QQQ - a clear shift from the upper to the lower
$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ : We've seen a clear shift from the upper to the lower Bollinger Band, and now a reversal. With multiple timeframes showing oversold conditions, a test of the 20DMA (blue) is very likely. I expect a rejection pattern to emerge (again) around the 20DMA. ➡️Nobody knows if one or two rejections, I vote for two. Thoughts?ImageSimilar pattern in $S&P 500(.SPX)$ , posted before this one.The recent lower Bollinger Band breach, acted last week' as a bearish signal, now suggests a bounce with continuation considering the candle. A move to the 20DMA is highly probable. ➡️The key question is whether this bounce will be short-lived (like scenarios 1 or 2) or sustained (like scenario 3). I'm lean
1.76K
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2025-03-01
SPX -> Target: 20-day moving average
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ -> Target: 20-day moving average (blue line). The recent lower Bollinger Band breach, acted last week' as a bearish signal, now suggests a bounce with continuation considering the candle. A move to the 20DMA is highly probable. ➡️The key question is whether this bounce will be short-lived (like scenarios 1 or 2) or sustained (like scenario 3). I'm leaning towards a short-lived bounce.Most likely short lived bounce. the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ is not done.Was the gap-fill the sole mission of this pullback?Image
1.70K
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2025-03-01
Stocks for the Long-Run?
Stocks for the Long-Run? This chart provides some useful perspective and a reminder that although those were extremely different times back then to now in just about every way, markets don’t always just go up all the time every time. There are plenty of examples across countries and history of relatively trend-less markets and lost decades. It’s not a reason to be pessimistic, but a reason to be pragmatic and ready in case the market doesn’t do what every finfluencer talking-head tells you 🤷♂️ImageUS Tech Stocks = Extreme Expensive(and non-tech is non-cheap) $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ Image
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2025-03-01
Weekly Macro Themes - US Small Caps Cautiously Bullish
This week I covered the following topics/ideas: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ 1. Volatility Views: This alternative volatility indicator is flagging the prospect of a major turning point in the US dollar and commodities, and an overall shift to a more volatile macro/market regime.2. Oil & Energy Stocks: Bullish crude oil on technicals and sentiment + supply and demand outlook. Also constructive on energy stocks given near-record low allocations, extreme cheap relative value.3. Carbon &am
3.02K
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2025-03-01
Top 10 SaaS Cloud multiples FEB24-FEB28
This week in enterprise software: Top 10 SaaS Cloud multiples as of today's market close $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ $Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$ $CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ $Samsara, Inc.(IOT)$ $ServiceNow(NOW)$ $Guidewire(GWRE)$ $Atlassian Corporation PLC(TEAM)$ $Snowflake(SNOW)$ $Shopify(SHOP)$ $HubSpot(HUBS)$ ImageThis week on Clouded Judgement: Max Uncertai
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2025-03-01
FICO remains acompelling long-term investment
$Fair Isaac(FICO)$ operates a consumer credit scoring system that's widely used in consumer loans andbanking. They also have a software business that provides solutions for fraud detection, loan originationand customer relationship management. The company's revenue is typically split evenly between scoresand software, though scores contribute 75% of operating income due to higher margins.FlCO Scores:The industry-standard credit score, used in over 90% of U.S. lending decisions.Generates high-margin revenue.Used in mortgages, auto loans, credit cards and loan securitisation.Scores are inexpensive (often under $1), but essential to financial institutions.Software Business:Provides analytics for fraud detection, credit origination, and customer manag
2.47K
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2025-03-01
YTD moves in the Mag 7
The generals are falling. YTD moves in the Mag 7: $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ : -30% $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ : -11% $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ : -11% $Microsoft(MSFT)$ : -7% $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ : -5% $Apple(AAPL)$ : -5% $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ : +12%Image
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2025-02-28
Seven Stars Alignment an Ominous Sign? Do You Believe the Influence of Astrology on Stock Trading?
On February 28 this year, a rare astronomical phenomenon, the "Seven Stars Alignment," will occur, a rare event that happens only once every 77 years. At 9 p.m. that night, after sunset, seven planets (Saturn, Mercury, Neptune, Venus, Uranus, Jupiter, and Mars) will align in the sky. Four of these planets (Mercury, Venus, Jupiter, and Mars) will be visible to the naked eye. Some metaphysicists believe that in ancient times, such an alignment was seen as an ominous sign, predicting a disaster. With this year’s Seven Stars Alignment, they predict significant fluctuations in stock market futures between March and April.Additionally, this year there will be a change in the position of the "Era Star." It is said that from March to May, due to Neptune and Saturn entering Aries, there will be a f
TOPdo you believe [Doubt] [Doubt] [Doubt] Some metaphysicists believe that in ancient times, such an alignment was seen as an ominous sign, predicting a disaster. With this year’s Seven Stars Alignment, they predict significant fluctuations in stock market futures between March and April. @Universe宇宙 @koolgal @LMSunshine @Shyon @Aqa @HelenJanet @rL @GoodLife99 @SPACE ROCKET @TigerGPT Do you believe in metaphysical stock trading? Have you been following the Seven Stars Alignment? Should we be prepared for risk? Leave your comments and also post to win tiger coins~
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2025-02-28
Big Short Entry, NVIDIA Facing Short-term Crisis
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Bad news: Dropping to 115.Good news: The pain may last only until next week.After 1 PM on Thursday, NVIDIA suddenly accelerated its decline. During the drop, bearish options $NVDA 20250307 115.0 PUT$ saw significant volume, with a transaction volume of 448,200 contracts and newly opened positions reaching 174,700 contracts.The estimated transaction amount is over $20 million, which is extremely rare for short-term out-of-the-money options to reach this level.According to the options open position details, $NVDA 20250307 115.0 PUT$ ranks first in bearish open positions.The leading data for bullis