To The Moon

These companies have something unusual and rare in common. Their FCF has high and predictable growth (2nd and 3rd column), while their FCF yield remains fairly constant (4th column). In other words, their share price appreciation has been through FCF going up, not a re-rating leading to FCF yield contracting. $Republic(RSG)$ $Nordson(NDSN)$ $Allegion PLC(ALLE)$ $Travelers(TRV)$ $Medpace(MEDP)$ $Intercontinental Exchange(ICE)$ $Primerica(PRI)$ $Hartford Insuranc

When I look at $MSCI Inc(MSCI)$ I see three things: 1. A great company with strong financial metrics 2. An attractive valuation 3. A share price that hasn’t done anything for 5 years To me this could means one of two things: 1. The market is right and in the future profitability and business quality will deteriorate 2. The market is wrong and is underestimating future profitability and business quality If it’s the latter, a catalyst will be needed to convince the market that MSCI deserves a higher share price. I agree it’s subjective. But two objective points are (1) its FCF yield is now at a long term high. And (2) other companies of this quality are trading at lower FCF yields.

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ will crash 2-3% on Wednesday's FOMC if this happens: Everyone knows we're staying at 3.50% to 3.75%, so I'm not trading the decision. What I'm watching is what Warsh says at 2:30, and here's the detail most people miss: PCE doesn't drop until Thursday morning. He has to stand up there and talk about inflation without having seen the number. So what does he actually have in front of him? Core still sticky above 3%. Jobless claims at 187K, the lowest since 1969. Oil back above $100. Nothing in that stack gives him a single reason to sound soft, and a Fed chair who can't sound soft usually ends up sounding hawkish by default. Now here's the part I think people have completely backwards. The bear case isn't "no cut in

I STOLE THIS SECRET FROM A MILLIONAIRE TRADER IN 2021: Everyone watches where price goes. Almost nobody watches where price closes. That's the whole edge. A candle's wick is the argument. The close is the verdict. Look at the chart Same shooting star. Same setup. Two completely different outcomes and the only difference is where the next candle finished. Left side (valid): the confirmation candle closes in the bottom 1/3 of the shooting star's range. Sellers didn't just show up, they took the whole thing back. Buyers who bought that spike are now underwater. That's a real handoff of control. Right side (invalid): the confirmation candle closes in the middle 1/3. Sellers pushed, buyers absorbed it, price stalled. Nobody's trapped. That's not a reversal, that's a pause and shorts who entered

I debated the title for this article a lot. The other option was “The World Isn’t Binary.” I’m still not exactly sure which title better describes this article, but I’ve found the principal of living with a positive sum mentality more impactful in my life so I went with that title. Anyway..on to the post! There are no shortage of big debates right now in AI. Open vs closed models. Nvidia vs custom silicon. Will chips have value after 5 years. Will AI kill software. God model vs fleet of specialized models. Are we in an AI capex bubble or not. Model layer vs application layer. Will models commoditize. The list goes on! These were just a few that came to mind… I won’t address all of these today, but the answer for most is “you’re not thinking big enough.” I’m clearly a hyper-optimistic perso