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08-27
Weekly Valuation Watch：The US Equity Rally Faces a Test? Diverging Flows and Uneven M7 Valuations
This week sits at a key macro inflection point for US equities: the US is set to release important macro data including GDP and PCE, while the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium will be held over the weekend, where Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks could provide new guidance for rate expectations. Against this backdrop, Nvidia, a core name in the AI supply chain, will report earnings after the close on Wednesday; its results and guidance will directly test whether elevated capital expenditure can continue to translate into orders and profitability. The confluence of macro data, central bank commentary, and tech leadership earnings makes this week a critical checkpoint for whether the “AI narrative” can continue to support rich valuations. The core issue this week is not the direction
TOPbreezyk: For Nvidia, I care less about revenue and more about whether free cash flow is actually keeping up with capex. If that slips, the valuation debate gets way tougher.
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08-28
$NVDA Leads the AI Rally While $COIN, $HOOD and $NBIS Reach Key Levels
Hey Tigers 👋 A lot is happening across the market right now, so here are the key levels and setups I’m watching most closely. 📊 🚀 $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $NVDA delivered a strong earnings report and absolutely ripped higher. The stock is now up roughly 7.5%, which means I may not get the $190 buy zone I was waiting for. That’s okay. Price is now testing an important level, and my bearish smart-money zone remains in play. For bulls to make a serious push toward new all-time highs, I want to see this level swept and then held. That would give me much more confidence in a sustained breakout. 🔥 Respect to everyone who stayed long through this move. 🟢 $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ $COIN is getting close to my short-ter
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08-28
AI Trade Playbook Through 2035 🤖📈
Whether you’re up $192, $1,920, or $193,000 like me, the playbook stays the same. These are the AI names with the strongest long-term setups right now: 🔥 $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ — The core compute play. AI models depend on its silicon, while demand for accelerated computing keeps compounding. ⚡ $Broadcom(AVGO)$ — Custom AI chips + networking. Hyperscalers need both to build increasingly massive AI clusters. ☁️ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ — Azure turns AI demand into recurring enterprise revenue, backed by a software distribution network few can match. 🏛️ $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ — The deployment layer, turning AI capabilities int
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08-28
$1.3T Just Got Pulled Forward
🔥 The most important number from tonight’s $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ earnings call wasn’t revenue. It was CapEx. CFO Colette Kress said top-five hyperscaler CapEx could hit nearly $800B in 2026 and $1.3T in 2027. That’s the key takeaway. The market had been looking for $1.3T in 2028. Nvidia just pulled that level forward to 2027. In other words, the AI infrastructure spending cycle isn’t slowing down. It’s accelerating. And that has a much broader read-through: 🔹 $Philadelphia Semiconductor Index(SOX)$ — the semiconductor complex 🔹 $Micron Technology(MU)$ — memory and HBM 🔹 $Lumentum(LITE)$ — optical connectivity 🔹
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08-28
NVDA Surges 8.7% After Earnings Beat as SPX Faces 7,729 Resistance
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ rallied strongly. The earnings report beat expectations and pushed the price up +8.7%, driven by a morning move that left a consolidation/indecision for the afternoon. Interestingly, $Micron Technology(MU)$ closed slightly in the red at -0.3% and $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ at -0.9%, failing to participate in the rally, while $Broadcom(AVGO)$ and $Texas Instruments(TXN)$ did so with +4.4% and +1.8% respectively. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ gained traction, recovering its central weekly level while facing resistance at the month
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08-27
8/27 Pre-Market Thoughts: Top-Boundary Trading
One-sentence theme: NVIDIA beat earnings, breaking above 220 and challenging 225. But block trades are collectively betting on "gold / Hong Kong stocks / China ADRs topping out" ahead of Jackson Hole (betting on a hawkish Warsh and a dollar rebound). The tone: range-bound trading at key levels — don't chase highs; wait for Warsh to set the tone. I. Sentiment Focus NVIDIA Challenges 225 (Earnings Delivered) Post-earnings, the stock broke above 220, with revenue doubling YoY beating expectations, and next-year guidance calling for 70% revenue growth — strong execution. Key observation: Can it break 225? (GEX shows 225/230 is a super Call wall, a hard ceiling). If the breakout fails → consider Sell Calls (capture IV crush + cap upside). Block Trades Collectively Betting on "Top Formation" — H
TOPWarsh alone probably does not decide the medium-term trend here. I care more about price action and fund flows than one speech.
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08-27
$P Reclaims $109 After Q2 Beat and Major Hyperscaler Win 🔥
$Everpure(P)$ $Everpure(P) +5.92% Post-Earnings Surge: AI Storage Leader Reclaims $109, Eyes $119 All-Time High Latest Close Data 📊 P closed at $108.90 (+5.92%) on Aug 27, just 8.6% below its 52-week high of $119.10. Intraday range: $103.16–$109.62, closing near the high with strong buying momentum. Core Market Drivers 🔥 • Q2 FY2027 earnings crushed estimates: EPS $0.70 vs $0.58 consensus (+20.7%), revenue $1.186B vs $1.097B expected. • Signed second design & supply agreement with a top-5 hyperscaler, reinforcing AI storage leadership. • Morgan Stanley upgraded to Overweight with PT raised from $87 to $108. Technical Analysis 📈 Volume surged to 5.35M shares (1.76x ratio), confirming breakout conviction. MACD remains bullish with DIF at 10.61 and
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08-27
$ORCL +2.84% Reclaims $148 as OCI AI Demand Fuels Rebound
$Oracle(ORCL)$ $Oracle(ORCL) +2.84% Reclaims $148, AI Cloud Momentum Drives Breakout Toward $174 Resistance Latest Close Data ORCL closed at $148.87 on 2026-08-27, up +2.84% (+$4.11), with intraday range $146.82–$151.63. The stock sits 56.9% below its 52-week high of $345.72 and 30.0% above its 52-week low of $114.50. Core Market Drivers ORCL extended its rebound as AI infrastructure demand remained resilient, with hyperscaler capex narratives supporting cloud names. The stock's recovery from July's sub-$120 lows reflects renewed confidence in OCI growth and enterprise AI adoption, despite lingering concerns over AI ROI timelines. Technical Analysis Volume came in at 18.43M shares, showing modest participation. MACD remains constructive: DIF 1.211
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08-27
$MSFT +0.95% Nears $500 as AI Cloud Demand Keeps Momentum Alive
$Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Microsoft(MSFT) +0.95%: AI Cloud Momentum Holds, $500 Breakout Window Narrows to $487–$497 Latest Close Data Closed at $496.37 (+0.95%) on Aug 27, just 1.2% below the 52-week high of $553.72. After-hours session showed strength at $495.94. Core Market Drivers Bernstein sees MSFT AI upside with valuation still below historical levels, implying 30%+ upside. OpenAI launched Private Safety Processing—a Microsoft-backed enterprise AI trust feature—reinforcing Azure's security moat. Technical Analysis Volume was 20.76M shares, slightly above average. RSI(6) surged to 69.6, nearing overbought but still bullish; RSI(12) at 67.8 confirms strength. MACD remains negative at -5.47 (DIF 21.34 vs DEA 24.08), but DIF is converging toward DEA—e
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08-27
$INTC +0.87% Holds $86 as Nvidia’s $30B Stake Revives Foundry Hopes
$Intel(INTC)$ $Intel(INTC) +0.87% — Chip Giant Steadies at $88.24, Rebound Fuel Loading Near $86 Support Zone 🎯 Latest Close Data INTC closed at $88.24 (+0.87%) on 2026-08-27, trading in a tight range of $85.63–$88.28. The stock sits -38% below its 52-week high of $142.35, but well above the 52-week low of $23.68. Core Market Drivers Nvidia's 13F filing revealed a ~$30B stake in Intel, reigniting strategic-partnership and foundry speculation. AI-driven semiconductor sentiment remains supportive, though INTC's negative TTM EPS (-2.09) keeps fundamental conviction limited. Technical Analysis Volume came in at 75.75M shares, below average (Volume Ratio 0.81), suggesting accumulation without distribution. MACD is still negative but improving: DIF -3.7
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08-27
$M +1.02% Climbs With Short Pressure Easing and Turnaround Hopes Building
$Macy's(M)$ $Macy's(M) Closes +1.02% at $22.82: Retail Turnaround Momentum Builds, $24.07 Resistance in Sight Latest Close Data: Macy's settled at $22.82 (+1.02%) on 2026-08-27, with intraday range $22.37–$22.96. Price sits 14.2% below its 52-week high of $26.59, yet 74.3% above the 52-week low of $13.09. Core Market Drivers: Retail sentiment firmed as Macy's extended its rebound from the August low. Short volume ratio eased to 21.69% on 8/25, suggesting reduced immediate bearish pressure. No company-specific catalyst dominated the session; the move reflects broader stabilization in discretionary retail. Technical Analysis: Volume of 5.42M shares was moderate (Volume Ratio 0.97). MACD remains negative at -0.595, with DIF (-0.223) still below DEA (0.0
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08-27
$CAT +1.31% Reclaims $815 With Dip Buying Returning After the Pullback
$Caterpillar(CAT)$ $CAT +1.31% Close at $821.93, Momentum Rebuilds Above $815 Pivot, $906 Resistance in Focus 📈 Latest Close Data CAT closed at $821.93 (+1.31%) on 2026-08-27, after-hours at $828.89. The stock sits -23.4% below its 52-week high of $1,073.46, but well above its 52-week low of $410.51. Core Market Drivers Oppenheimer recently flagged an improving risk-reward setup for CAT after the pullback. Heavy-machinery peers show mixed momentum, with short volume ratio easing to 10.90% from recent highs, suggesting fading bearish pressure. Institutional holders BlackRock and Vanguard remain steady. Technical Analysis Volume came in at 1.85M shares with a Volume Ratio of 0.67, indicating mild participation. MACD remains negative (DIF -18.45 vs DE
TOPNice Sharing 😁 @Aqa @DiAngel @JC888 @Barcode @Shyon @koolgal @Shernice軒嬣 2000
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08-27
Korean Stocks Are Too Cheap to Ignore — If Not Now, When?
The KOSPI Index previously fell nearly 40% from its peak. As forced liquidation pressure gradually fades, the sell-off in Korean equities appears to be nearing an end. Korean stocks seem to have entered a technical bull market, and this rally may have considerable staying power. Why do I think this technical bull market in Korean stocks could last for quite some time? There are several reasons. 1. The AI semiconductor cycle is still in an upswing The KOSPI is highly dependent on memory-chip giants Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, which together account for roughly half of the index’s weight. $三星电子(SSNLF)$ $ $SK海力士(SKHY)$ Boosted by Nvidia’s latest earnings report, which s
TOPValuation rerating could matter more than people think here. If governance reforms keep inching forward, Korea probably has more room than just an AI-led bounce
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08-27
$QCOM +1.97% Reclaims $163 as Edge Computing Demand Fuels Recovery
$Qualcomm(QCOM)$ $Qualcomm (QCOM) +1.97%: Qualcomm Reclaims $163, MACD Golden Cross Signals Momentum Shift Toward $196 Resistance Latest Close Data 📊 QCOM closed at $163.72 (+1.97%) on Aug 27, 2026, with intraday range $159.89–$163.87. Price remains 37% below 52-week high of $259.92, but sits 34% above the 52-week low of $121.99. Core Market Drivers 📰 Qualcomm continues to digest its July Q3 report, where net profit fell 25% YoY on surging memory costs, prompting a September 1 price hike across products. Broad tech sentiment remains mixed after META reversed and Apple slumped, yet chip names show relative resilience amid AI-driven edge computing demand. Technical Analysis 🔍 Volume of 10.48M shares traded with a volume ratio of 1.11, indicating sli
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08-27
💲Chips Win, Platforms Pay: Nvidia Soars as Meta, Snap Take Heat
👋 Hi, Tigers! Wednesday was a quiet session on the surface — $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ -0.21% to 53,463.88, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ -0.02% to 7,675.70, $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ -0.08% to 26,130.20 — but that calm was just the market holding its breath. The real action happened after the bell, and in two boardrooms that had nothing to do with AI chips. 💲 The Setup: A Market on Pause July core PCE inflation landed exactly in line with expectations, leaving September rate-cut odds unchanged. With nothing new on the inflation front and Nvidia's print looming after the close, traders mostly stayed on the sidelines — Big Tech split roughly d
TOPNvidia’s guidance changes the AI conversation from “future potential” to visible, accelerating demand. A $108B Q3 revenue outlook, alongside surging data-center sales, suggests hyperscaler capex still has plenty of fuel. I’m therefore more constructive on AI hardware into September—but I wouldn’t chase blindly. Rising memory costs and Nvidia’s projected margin compression show that even winners are starting to face capacity constraints and higher input costs. For valuations, I’d still put AI capex ahead of Fed policy in the near term. A hawkish Jackson Hole could trigger volatility, but if AI spending continues compounding, strong earnings can ultimately overpower higher-rate pressure. As for Meta and Snap, I think regulatory risk is becoming a structural theme rather than a one-off. Teen-safety scrutiny could spread across the industry, creating legal costs and potentially forcing product changes. My view: AI momentum remains the engine; the Fed determines how bumpy the ride gets.
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08-27
🪙 SK Hynix's ₩100T Payday: Is the Memory Super Cycle Just Getting Started?
$SK hynix(SKHY)$ just got another vote of confidence from Wall Street. Bank of America remains bullish on the AI-driven memory super cycle, arguing that this isn't shaping up like the boom-bust memory cycles investors are used to. At the same time, South Korea's two memory giants are finally opening the floodgates on shareholder returns — potentially putting well over ₩100 trillion back into investors' hands. 🐯 Hi Tigers, here's the setup: 🔍 Why: This Isn't a Normal Chip Cycle Every few years, memory chips go through a boom-bust cycle tied heavily to PC and smartphone demand. BofA is arguing that this time could be different. The bank estimates the global DRAM and NAND market could reach roughly $877 billion in 2026 and exceed $1.2
TOP💾BofA’s “super‑cycle” call means AI demand could reshape memory beyond the old boom‑bust PC/phone cycles. With DRAM/NAND markets projected at $877B in 2026 & >$1.2T in 2027, supply growth <10% looks tight. 🐯 Shareholder returns — ₩40T buyback at SK Hynix, ₩90T–₩110T at Samsung — show cash finally flowing back. My view: structural AI demand supports the super‑cycle, but payout waves often mark peaks. I’d watch if supply catches up faster than expected.[Duh]@JC888 @Barcode @Aqa @DiAngel @Shyon @koolgal @Shernice軒嬣 2000
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08-27
$SBUX Approaches $110 as Strong Store Sales Keep Rally Alive
$Starbucks(SBUX)$ $Starbucks(SBUX) +2.58% Reclaims $108, Momentum Building Toward $110.51 Breakout 🚀☕ Latest Close Data: Closed at $108.49 (+2.58%) on Aug 27, just 1.8% below its 52-week high of $110.51. Intraday range: $105.42–$108.58. Core Market Drivers: SBUX extended its post-earnings rally after last month's Q3 beat showed a fourth consecutive quarter of same-store sales growth and raised full-year guidance. CEO Brian Niccol's turnaround nears its two-year mark; Deutsche Bank lifted its target to $126 from $120. Labor union tensions and a reported 100+ corporate layoffs remain sentiment overhangs. Technical Analysis: RSI(6) jumped to 62.1, exiting the neutral zone with bullish momentum; RSI(12) at 58.3 confirms broadening strength. MACD just
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08-27
Why July’s PCE Report Keeps Long-Duration Stocks and Bonds Under Pressure
The July personal-consumption report contained an uncomfortable combination for markets: inflation remained too high while real spending stalled. The Bureau of Economic Analysis released the data on August 26. The PCE price index rose 0.2% during July and 3.7% from a year earlier; core PCE also rose 0.2% during the month. Current-dollar personal consumption increased 0.2%, but real PCE was unchanged. Income offered the more positive signal. Personal income increased 0.4%, disposable personal income rose 0.5% and real disposable income increased 0.4%. The BEA’s official July release distinguishes nominal income, real spending and prices. This means households gained some purchasing power, but chose not to translate it immediately into more real consumption. The bullish interpretation is tha
TOPThat 0.2% core PCE with TLT still fighting below 85 keeps me leaning bearish. Below 85 this still looks like duration getting repriced, not a real turn
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08-27
Why Nvidia’s $108 Billion Guide Extends the AI Boom
but Raises the Financing Question $NVIDIA(NVDA)$’s fiscal-second-quarter results were extraordinary even by its own recent standards. The company reported on August 26 for the quarter ended July 26: revenue reached $96.22 billion, up 18% sequentially and 106% year over year; Data Center revenue rose 117% to $89.0 billion; and non-GAAP EPS increased 120% to $2.22. Non-GAAP gross margin held at 75.0%. Nvidia’s official release provides the results and product milestones. The bullish thesis is that demand is broadening while the product cycle is accelerating. Vera Rubin is moving into full production across major cloud providers, Groq 3 LPX is in production, and Nvidia expects third-quarter revenue of $108 billion, plus or minus 2%, without assuming
TOPFinancing quality is the whole debate here. If hyperscaler spend is getting debt-funded, that 108B guide looks less durable than the revenue print suggests