1.13K
·
08-28
For me, the biggest takeaway is that the market is clearly rotating back into AI software, cybersecurity and enterprise tech. I’m especially watching $Salesforce.com(CRM)$ , $ServiceNow(NOW)$ and $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ because their earnings, AI catalysts and improving momentum suggest the underlying story remains strong. The broad participation also gives me more confidence that this isn’t just a one-stock rally. That said, I’m not chasing the strongest green candles here. $CRM, $Veeva
TOPBarbaraWillard: I get the AI software rotation, but NVDA at 40x forward earnings already prices in a lot. One soft guide and these stretched names probably lead the pullback lol
464
·
08-28
My biggest takeaway is that the second half of 2026 may not be a simple “Fed cuts = stocks rise” story. The real drivers are liquidity, Treasury policy, long-term yields and AI capital spending. Treasury buybacks may help ease pressure at the long end, but structural fiscal deficits remain a challenge. At the same time, a less transparent Fed could make markets more sensitive to incoming inflation and employment data. What I find most interesting is the AI + gold combination. Nvidia and semiconductor leaders offer exposure to the AI investment cycle, while gold can provide portfolio ballast when geopolitical, inflation or fiscal risks rise. Instead of betting everything on one market direction, combining growth assets with defensive assets may be a smarter way to navigate late-2026 volati
TOPI like the AI plus gold barbell here. Central bank gold buying may matter more than cuts, and that ballast feels a lot more durable into late cycle volatility
61.74K
·
08-28
Elliott Wave Perspective: SPY Finalizing Impulsive Leg Prior to Larger‑Cycle Retracement
The short‑term Elliott Wave outlook for the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) continues to indicate that the cycle from the June 27 low is progressing as a well‑defined impulse. From that low, wave ((i)) advanced to 756.22, followed by a measured pullback in wave ((ii)) that found support at 725.96, as reflected in the one‑hour chart. The ETF then resumed its upward trajectory in wave ((iii)), which developed as an impulse of lesser degree. Within this structure, wave (i) concluded at 746.55, and the subsequent retracement in wave (ii) ended at 737.68. Momentum strengthened again as wave (iii) extended toward 776.85. The pullback in wave (iv) unfolded as a triangle, ultimately terminating at 771.29. The final leg, wave (v), carried the ETF to 779.37, completing wave ((iii)) in higher degree. The marke
TOP725.96 is the level, sure, but did volume actually expand on the ((v)) push? If not, that looks more like exhaustion than confirmation
545
·
08-28
My biggest takeaway is that the next stage of the AI rally will be decided by earnings, not expanding valuations. Nvidia’s lower forward P/E is encouraging, but investors can no longer rely on multiple expansion alone. AI companies must continue converting massive capex into real revenue and cash flow. What I found especially interesting was the portfolio angle: AI and gold can complement each other. Semiconductors offer exposure to structural growth, while gold can hedge against fiscal uncertainty, inflation and policy volatility. Meanwhile, Treasury buybacks and a less transparent Fed could create new transmission risks for long-term yields. For the second half of 2026, I would focus less on predicting the next market move and more on identifying where earnings expectations are still re
TOPGold probably does more work here than inflation alone. If issuance stays heavy while QT keeps draining liquidity, long yields can stay jumpy even with softer growth.
286
·
08-28
The biggest takeaway for me is that the market may be underestimating transparency as a policy tool. Rate cuts or hikes matter, but investors also need to understand the Fed’s reaction function so expectations can adjust before policy actually changes. At the same time, Treasury buybacks could help ease pressure on the long end, while cooling inflation creates room for monetary policy to become more supportive. That creates an interesting setup: AI and semiconductors remain the growth engine, while gold can provide portfolio balance when macro uncertainty rises. For me, the key lesson is simple: don’t just predict the next rate move—understand how policy expectations are transmitted into asset prices. @TBlive [龇牙]
TOPTransparency helps, but it does not always anchor expectations. Recent FOMC swings showed how clearer messaging can still create more noise than stability.
448
·
08-28
What stood out to me is that Treasury buybacks are more than a headline—they can change the supply-demand dynamics of duration. If the Treasury funds purchases of long-dated bonds with short-term bills, it can reduce the amount of long-duration debt the private market needs to absorb, potentially easing pressure on the 30-year yield. That makes the bond market much more interesting in late 2026. But I would not assume policymakers can simply “cap” yields: inflation, fiscal deficits, term premium and investor demand still matter. My biggest takeaway is that understanding the mechanism matters more than reacting to the headline. If long yields stabilize while AI earnings remain strong, the combination of growth assets and duration could become increasingly attractive.
TOPTerm premium is the missing piece here. Even if supply shifts help, long bonds still need a real inflation risk discount.
424
·
08-29
I think the July AI selloff was part forced liquidation, part overdue repricing, but the liquidation probably amplified what would otherwise have been a healthier correction. AI fundamentals did not suddenly collapse. Demand for compute, cloud infrastructure and enterprise AI remained strong. What changed was the market’s willingness to pay increasingly high multiples while hyperscaler capex kept rising faster than near-term monetisation. Forced selling then turned a valuation reset into a sharper decline as crowded positions were unwound. The subsequent broad rebound across Nvidia, software and cybersecurity supports this view. I would not interpret the recovery as a return to “buy anything AI”, though. From here, earnings growth, margins and evidence of returns on AI spending should inc
TOPMultiple compression still looks more rate-driven than fundamental-driven to me. The next leg probably gets much pickier once margins and AI spend payback have to show up
325
·
08-29
Iggy's Journal: SIA Has 4 Options With Air India's $1.5 Billion Ask. None of Them Are Free
Iggy's Journal: SIA Has 4 Options With Air India's $1.5 Billion Ask. None of Them Are Free 28 August 2026, PM Podcast Release: New episode is up on SIA and Air India. The headline number isn't actually the risk here. Reuters reported Air India is seeking roughly US$1.5 billion in additional capital combined from Tata and SIA, and SIA's specific share of that hasn't been confirmed, SIA itself declined to comment on financials. What's already confirmed is that SIA has booked $945.2 million in equity-accounted losses from this stake this financial year, and that number sits on the balance sheet regardless of how the new ask gets split. The real question the episode digs into isn't whether SIA funds it, it's what funding does to dividend policy from here. My Personal Take: If you're holding SI
TOPWhy assume SIA has to meet the full ask at all? The payout risk matters more if they negotiate a smaller share or structure it differently
1.31K
·
08-29
Losing money in a trading session doesn't mean we can't celebrate with food
I have come here especially to buy mooncake to take back to Australia. The traditional teochew yam paste mooncake from Crown Hotel has been shifted over here. Took me a while to find the hotel - Amara. I was basically walking passed the entrance without realisation! Ended up having lunch here as well. I was not too hungry, and they offer dim sum lunch, which suits my current lack in appetite. Had a balanced diet, a porridge (abalone anyone?), beancurd rolls and siu mai, washed down with a fine pot of Chinese tea. Oh... I forgot its free starter, a guava with dried orange peel! Totally gently sweet and refreshing... It's not your normal dim sum... a classy one. Oh... Let's forget the price for this nice meal 😜 Let's just say the service and ambience makes up for it to give the meal a
TOPYour winnings double if you eat like a king who devoured tons of pork liver just like @InverseCramer
1.36K
·
08-29
August Review, September Playbook: The Month That Tested Every Conviction.
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$
TOPNice Sharing 😁 @JC888 @Barcode @DiAngel @Aqa @Shyon @koolgal @Shernice軒嬣 2000
739
·
08-29
NVDA Just Named Memory as Its Biggest Cost Problem. So Why Are Memory Stocks Going Sideways?
Thursday's session produced one of the more confusing divergences of the year. NVDA closed up 8.74% after delivering revenue up 106% year on year, data centre sales up 117%, and a forecast for roughly 70% top-line growth next year. CFO Colette Kress explicitly named rising memory costs as the reason gross margin is heading from 75% today to a trough of 71 to 72% in Q4. High bandwidth memory now accounts for an estimated 30 to 40% of the cost to build an AI accelerator. The world's most important AI chip company just told the world, on an earnings call with full legal accountability, that memory suppliers have pricing power over it. SNDK closed down 0.96%. MU closed down 0.32%. SK Hynix gained 2.27%. That divergence deserves a straight answer rather than rationalisation. The Three Reasons M
TOPSK Hynix already told the story a bit. HBM suppliers and generic memory names are not getting priced the same, and that split matters more than NVDA margin noise here
588
·
08-29
Bitcoin Is At $80,000. I Just Bought 7,000 More MARA At $11.
Mathematical Money | August 30, 2026 Bitcoin had a good week. It pushed above $81,000 before easing back, closed Friday around $80,000, and spot ETFs have now taken inflows for nine sessions straight — roughly $3 billion over the streak. The whole crypto market is sitting near its weekly highs. MARA did not have a good week. It was $11.34 last Friday. It closed this Friday at $10.67. So the coin is up and the miner is down, which is not how the marketing brochure says this is supposed to work. If you hold miners you've felt this before. The leverage everyone talks about cuts both ways, and lately it's been cutting the wrong way more often than the right one. Anyway. On Friday I bought 7,000 more shares. Not by choice, exactly I'd sold 70 put contracts at the $11 strike expiring August 28.
TOPI lean coin here. Premium helps, but miners have been lagging too long and the power-cost side still bites. That wheel income is clean though
641
·
08-29
Software Stocks Make a Strong Comeback — Keep an Eye on These Names This earnings season has brought a notable recovery for US SaaS & software names. Multiple companies delivered robust results across revenue, cloud revenue, ARR/RPO order backlog and cash flow. Several stocks surged more than 30% on the first trading day post‑earnings, as the market repriced growth upside enabled by enterprise AI. In terms of market performance, $Atlassian Corporation PLC(TEAM)$
TOPPLTR's 29% pop still feels early. AIP deal velocity looks faster than the print, and next quarter RPO could be the real confirmation
545
·
08-29
(Full Article) - Preview of the week (31Aug2026)
Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 31Aug2026) Global Manufacturing Signals China’s August Manufacturing PMI is forecast at 49.7, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity. This release is especially important because China accounts for nearly one-third of global manufacturing output, so a weaker reading could point to softer global demand. Chicago PMI for August is forecast at 57.8, suggesting continued expansion in production and a potentially bullish signal for markets. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for August is forecast at 53.2, also pointing to expansion. ISM Manufacturing PMI for August is forecast at 55.3, indicating further growth in manufacturing activity. ISM Manufacturing Prices for August will be an important gauge of producer cost pressures, which may eve
TOPVIX and UVXY only help if the sizing stays small around the PMI prints; the entry timing matters more than the hedge itself here
581
·
08-29
(Part 4 of 5) - News and my thoughts from the past week (31Aug2026)
News and my thoughts from the past week (31Aug2026) JPMorgan has said that there may be a large-scale food supply crisis in the next year. - Unusual Whale Bill Gates accuses the tech industry of knowingly downplaying AI's risks because too much money is at stake. Executives are worried in private but won't say so publicly, he told the NYT. Their reasoning, in his words: "It's bad for us — the next trillion dollars we're trying to raise." Gates says the industry blew past milestones it once said would warrant caution: models escaping their creators' control, AI producing bioweapon recipes. - X user International Cyber Digest AI agents are now using 5x more tokens than humans - X user Kalshi David Sacks: “I got bad news for you, Chamath, an open source ban is coming. They're not going to cal
TOPIf standards really get written by the incumbents, open models either organize around shared evals and audits or get boxed out fast. That is where VIX gets interesting
955
·
08-30
🌟🌟🌟It is the Tug of War of the AI era: Do you stay strapped to the $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ rocket ship or do you take profits and run before gravity remembers it still exists? If you choose to diamond hand your Nvidia's shares, you are backing the King of modern computing infrastructure. Every Tech Titan from Microsoft & Google to hyper scaled AI startups is practically begging for NVIDIA hardware. They are not just buying chips. They are buying the software ecosystem - CUDA that anchors the entire AI world. NVIDIA does not just sit still. Just when the market thinks Blackwell architecture is priced in, Vera Rubin is their next generation silicon road map. Moreover there is no financial pain quite like selling a stock at a 100% gain
TOPMy DCF still shows at least 40% upside from here, and that barely credits Vera Rubin. CUDA lock-in is doing more work than the market admits
872
·
08-30
🌟🌟🌟I believe that the $Marvell Technology(MRVL)$ thesis rests on rock solid fundamentals. The custom chip story isn't cooling down. Hyperscalers like Alphabet, Amazon & Microsoft need custom ASICs to optimise specific workloads at a lower cost. Marvell's management also stated that their custom chip business is expected to double next year. You do not double your core growth engine in a cooling market. Don't forget that NVIDIA itself validated Marvell's tech stack with a massive USD 2 billion strategic investment earlier this year to integrate them into the NVLink Fusion ecosystem. So when the market throws a high quality stock out with post earnings bathwater, history favours those who step in to buy the fear.
TOPThat doubling guide matters more than the fear trade. If NVLink Fusion integration starts showing up in revenue, the multiple probably rerates before the market admits it.
947
·
08-30
🌟🌟🌟Buying $Strategy(MSTR)$ isn't just buying Bitcoin. It is buying Bitcoin on financial steroids. If you believe the bottom is in, Michael Saylor's model is an absolute master piece of corporate engineering. MSTR doesn't just buy Bitcoin with spare cash. They issue low interest convertible debt to buy more Bitcoin. When Bitcoin goes up, MSTR's stock price reacts with a massive spike that leaves spot Bitcoin ETFs like $iShares Bitcoin Trust(IBIT)$ in the dust. By trading at a massive premium to its actual Net Asset Value or NAV, MSTR can issue new shares, buy more Bitcoin & instantly make the company more valuable on paper. It is a financial perpetual motion machine. In
TOPIBIT being constrained is exactly why bigger money can hold it. Lower fees and cleaner liquidity matter way more than MSTR's premium machine over a full cycle
634
·
08-30
🌟🌟🌟 $SK hynix(SKHY)$ ground breaking ceremony in Indiana USA proves that the memory market has fundamentally evolved from a commoditised cyclical trade into a high barrier, institutional grade structural growth story. While the risk of aggressive pricing may trigger a capital expenditure pullback from Big Tech, the sheer physics of AI scaling means the world simply cannot function without advanced HBM memory. Hynix is building the physical backbone of the next decade's computing infrastructure. Until the Big Tech Giants stop fighting over server rack space, the memory supercycle remains firmly intact. That is why I believe that SK Hynix will continue to be the dominant leader of the memory stocks as it has exponential growth ahead.
TOPNice Sharing 😁 @Barcode @Aqa @DiAngel @Shyon @JC888 @Shernice軒嬣 2000
570
·
08-30
Roblox’s $28bn Reality Check
Wall Street has stopped playing nicely Roblox has become a fascinating stock because Wall Street cannot seem to agree on what it is worth — and, more importantly, what kind of company it will become. The disagreement has intensified in recent months. Bank of America slashed its price target from $165 to $48 and moved to Neutral. JPMorgan cut its target from $75 to $50. Morgan Stanley subsequently reduced its target to $55 on 31 July while retaining an Overweight rating. That distinction matters. Morgan Stanley is effectively saying Roblox's long-term opportunity remains attractive while acknowledging that the near-term economics have deteriorated substantially. Wall Street isn't simply divided. The consensus itself has been moving rapidly lower. At $38.53 on 28 August,
TOPWall Street probably cannot price a company mid-transition that cleanly. They still have not settled whether Roblox is a game business or a social platform, and that gap is doing a lot here