To The Moon

Market Outlook of S&P500 (31Aug2026) Technical Analysis Overview MACD Indicator The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 is on a downtrend. Moving Averages Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows the last candlestick above the 50-day (MA50) and 200-day (MA200) moving average lines. This pattern indicates a bullish shift in the short and long term. Notably, both the MA50 and MA200 lines have continued to trend upward, indicating a bullish outlook in both the short and long term. Exponential Moving Averages This shows a bullish trend with a potential for reversal. Chaikin Money Flow CMF index shows a score of -0.10. This implies more selling momentum than buying momentum. Other Technical Analysis Based on the daily

Earnings Calendar (31Aug2026) There are a few interesting earnings releases in the coming week that include Dell, NIO, Palo Alto, Asana and Broadcom. Let us look at Broadcom. Broadcom: Market View and Valuation Technical analysis currently indicates a “strong sell”, while analyst sentiment points to a “strong buy”. The price target of $555.97 implies a potential upside of 42.6%, and the stock has risen 24.01% over the past year. However, valuation appears stretched. With a P/E ratio of 61.2 and EPS of $6.19, the stock looks expensive on an earnings basis. Financial Performance: 2021–2025 Broadcom’s financial performance strengthened significantly between 2021 and 2025, with revenue, operating income, and net income all showing strong growth. Total revenue rose from $27.4 billion

My top focus for the first two weeks of September is crypto stocks. The big catalyst everyone is waiting for is the CLARITY Act Senate procedural vote on September 15, which gives us roughly two weeks of potential run-up. We’re already seeing some crypto names showing strength, which makes me wonder if bigger money is positioning ahead of the catalyst. 👀 I like the idea of following the relative strength and riding the hot hand while the setup is there. My basket: 💰 $Robinhood(HOOD)$ 💵 $Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ 🪙 $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ 🏦 $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ 🐱

I think the biggest takeaway for me is that value investing has to evolve with the market. I still believe in valuation and margin of safety, but I’m increasingly focused on business quality, cash flow, competitive moats and industry growth cycles. Understanding an industry early can be much more powerful than simply looking for cheap stocks. For me, position sizing is key to building a crash-resilient portfolio. I don’t want one wrong thesis to hurt the entire portfolio, so I prefer diversification and keeping some cash for opportunities during pullbacks. I also agree that conviction should never become stubbornness. Ultimately, my investing superpower is consistency over noise. I try to combine fundamentals, industry trends, catalysts and technical signals. The goal isn’t to avoid every

Reflect on August, Plan for September: What the Market Taught Me August was a good reminder that investing is not simply about being right. It is about being right for the right reason, at the right price, with the right position size. Looking back at my August trading, the biggest lesson was not a particular stock or a particular return. It was learning to distinguish between a good company, a good story, and a good trade. They are three completely different things. ① August Recap — What Did I Get Right? The trade I am most satisfied with this month was staying focused on the areas where earnings and fundamentals were actually improving, rather than blindly chasing whatever stock was moving the most. AI infrastructure remained one of the strongest structural themes. NVIDIA's latest result

For me, the biggest takeaway is that the market is clearly rotating back into AI software, cybersecurity and enterprise tech. I’m especially watching $Salesforce.com(CRM)$ , $ServiceNow(NOW)$ and $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ because their earnings, AI catalysts and improving momentum suggest the underlying story remains strong. The broad participation also gives me more confidence that this isn’t just a one-stock rally. That said, I’m not chasing the strongest green candles here. $CRM, $Veeva

My biggest takeaway is that the second half of 2026 may not be a simple “Fed cuts = stocks rise” story. The real drivers are liquidity, Treasury policy, long-term yields and AI capital spending. Treasury buybacks may help ease pressure at the long end, but structural fiscal deficits remain a challenge. At the same time, a less transparent Fed could make markets more sensitive to incoming inflation and employment data. What I find most interesting is the AI + gold combination. Nvidia and semiconductor leaders offer exposure to the AI investment cycle, while gold can provide portfolio ballast when geopolitical, inflation or fiscal risks rise. Instead of betting everything on one market direction, combining growth assets with defensive assets may be a smarter way to navigate late-2026 volati

My biggest takeaway is that the next stage of the AI rally will be decided by earnings, not expanding valuations. Nvidia’s lower forward P/E is encouraging, but investors can no longer rely on multiple expansion alone. AI companies must continue converting massive capex into real revenue and cash flow. What I found especially interesting was the portfolio angle: AI and gold can complement each other. Semiconductors offer exposure to structural growth, while gold can hedge against fiscal uncertainty, inflation and policy volatility. Meanwhile, Treasury buybacks and a less transparent Fed could create new transmission risks for long-term yields. For the second half of 2026, I would focus less on predicting the next market move and more on identifying where earnings expectations are still re

The biggest takeaway for me is that the market may be underestimating transparency as a policy tool. Rate cuts or hikes matter, but investors also need to understand the Fed’s reaction function so expectations can adjust before policy actually changes. At the same time, Treasury buybacks could help ease pressure on the long end, while cooling inflation creates room for monetary policy to become more supportive. That creates an interesting setup: AI and semiconductors remain the growth engine, while gold can provide portfolio balance when macro uncertainty rises. For me, the key lesson is simple: don’t just predict the next rate move—understand how policy expectations are transmitted into asset prices. @TBlive [龇牙]

What stood out to me is that Treasury buybacks are more than a headline—they can change the supply-demand dynamics of duration. If the Treasury funds purchases of long-dated bonds with short-term bills, it can reduce the amount of long-duration debt the private market needs to absorb, potentially easing pressure on the 30-year yield. That makes the bond market much more interesting in late 2026. But I would not assume policymakers can simply “cap” yields: inflation, fiscal deficits, term premium and investor demand still matter. My biggest takeaway is that understanding the mechanism matters more than reacting to the headline. If long yields stabilize while AI earnings remain strong, the combination of growth assets and duration could become increasingly attractive.

I think the July AI selloff was part forced liquidation, part overdue repricing, but the liquidation probably amplified what would otherwise have been a healthier correction. AI fundamentals did not suddenly collapse. Demand for compute, cloud infrastructure and enterprise AI remained strong. What changed was the market’s willingness to pay increasingly high multiples while hyperscaler capex kept rising faster than near-term monetisation. Forced selling then turned a valuation reset into a sharper decline as crowded positions were unwound. The subsequent broad rebound across Nvidia, software and cybersecurity supports this view. I would not interpret the recovery as a return to “buy anything AI”, though. From here, earnings growth, margins and evidence of returns on AI spending should inc