529
·
09-15
AI Safety & The AI Rug Pull
Investing is about risk and reward. And I think the current state of the AI buildout has more risk built in than many investors want to think. Those risks came to light over the weekend. In essence, Dario’s argument is that AI development should be “paced” in three ways: Embedded evaluators to verify the safety of models. This is similar to how big banks are regulated today. AI labs coordinate to create safety frameworks and limit “unchecked AI progress”. Coordination globally. I have a lot of thoughts, and I don’t think there are 100% certain answers to the safety, risk, or future development of AI. But I do think the argument and the fact that all of the major lab CEOs seemed to agree bring forward some major risks for investors. And it seems to be pulling the rug out from under some of
895
·
09-15
Being Long $NVDA and $AMD Means Being Long OpenAI and Anthropic
Here’s the part of the AI trade I think investors are underestimating. If you're long $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ $Bloom Energy Corp(BE)$ and other AI infrastructure names, you're ultimately long the spending decisions of the biggest AI model companies. OpenAI and Anthropic matter enormously. They are among the companies driving the demand for compute, chips, power and data-center capacity. If their growth expectations or funding plans change, the impact can travel through the entire AI infrastructure chain. R
1.54K
·
09-15
$PLTR Faces $170, $NVDA Risks $210, $ORCL Must Hold $140
Good morning, tigers ☕️📈 Three names are sitting at very different decision points right now. 🎯 $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ PLTR rejected the Smart Money Sell Zone almost perfectly. Now $170 is the level bulls need to reclaim this week. Hold above it and the structure can stabilize. Fail to reclaim it, and I’d expect a move back toward $135. The bigger level remains $210. That’s where the next major upside decision comes in. ⚡ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ For NVDA, $210 is the line that matters. That’s where the 2B-share THT Volume Pro support sits. If buyers defend the zone, the daily structure remains constructive. Lose $210 and the picture changes quickly, with the next move potentially taking price toward th
797
·
09-15
$SPX Lost 7,657 While $NFLX and $WMT Hit Their Targets
The bearish thesis for the major indices posted on Saturday was confirmed today; the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ opened below the central daily and weekly levels, setting a bearish momentum right from the start. The daily level (CDL) of 7,657 was lost from the opening and the price found support at 7,596.5, a support layer provided on Friday. The day was red for semiconductors, but it was not as ugly for the stock market in general. Individual names that I mentioned on Saturday as valid bulls like $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ showed strength or resilience today. Among the setups highlighted with th
2.59K
·
09-15
A Week Well-Suited for Sell Strategies
Over the weekend, the three tech giants reached a verbal agreement to slow AI development, causing AI-related concept stocks to plunge — hardware fell, and cloud giants fell too. But I'm thinking about something else: Anthropic's post-IPO earnings and stock performance will likely be very hard to predict, because the CEO can say whatever he wants. Data disclosure is one thing; the earnings call is another. The broader market pullback driven by the three giants' rhetoric looks like a great Sell Put opportunity to me. I mean, do you believe commercial companies won't compete, or do you believe I'm Qin Shi Huang? The verbal slowdown has no actual capex data to back it up — it looks more like expectation management. One explanation for the three giants' slowdown is that they're compromising wi
7.75K
·
09-14
Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin Holdings Cross 7,800 BTC — But Who Is Really Buying?
Hey Tigers🐯! $Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust ETP(MSBT)$’s Bitcoin holdings have surpassed 7,800 BTC after three consecutive days of reported accumulation. But the bigger story may be investor demand for $Morgan Stanley(MS)$’s crypto wrapper — not a proprietary Bitcoin bet. According to on-chain data tracked by Arkham and reported on September 12, MSBT added approximately 203.45 BTC worth $15.81 million over three consecutive days, bringing its total holdings to 7,855 BTC, worth more than $600 million at the time of reporting. At first glance, that sounds like $Morgan Stanley(MS)$ is making a $600 million Bitcoin bet. But
TOP吉3186: I choose C — Somewhere in between. MSBT attracting inflows while the wider Bitcoin ETF market had about $463 million in outflows is definitely interesting. But four days is too short to prove that Morgan Stanley has created a strong, long-term institutional demand. The bigger point is that Morgan Stanley is building more ways for traditional investors to access Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana. For me: Short term: Interesting signal, but not enough evidence. Long term: More important if MSBT continues getting inflows during future Bitcoin market weakness. Also, 7,855 BTC does NOT mean Morgan Stanley itself invested $600M of its own money. Much of that Bitcoin backs investor demand for the product. My answer: C — Watch it, but don't overreact yet.
2.90K
·
09-14
9/14–9/18 Weekly Volatility Range Assessment
Major Events This Week Monday Open — Watch for Sector Rotation: Bearish for Hardware Chips, Bullish for Cloud Providers Anthropic / OpenAI / SpaceX jointly calling for a slowdown in AI development pace — potentially bearish for AI stocks. The bullish impact of Leopold's chip call positions may be offset; combined with mid-week news that GPT Pro suspended subscriptions due to surging Astra demand. FOMC & Triple Witching: Favors Sellers Low volatility: A large backlog of open options is pinning stock prices, resulting in very low volatility this week. Historical volatility levels for many stocks have reached mid-year lows. No decline this week: Friday's FOMC may not trigger a major market reaction. Decline next week: But pay attention to the Monday after Triple Witching — historical data
TOP745 is the line I care about too, but 12.9k SPY puts into FOMC is still chunky. If vol is this pinned, gamma risk probably shows up the Monday after, not Friday
5.34K
·
09-10
$NBIS 20260911 165.0 PUT$ Closed position early to materialise profit. Lunch money for the weekend secured.
NBIS PUT
09-10 22:16
US20260911 165.0
| Side | Price | Filled | Realized P&L |
|---|---|---|
| Buy Close | 0.04 3Lot(s) | +96.43% Closed |
TOP0.03 to 0.04 is fair, vol on these weeklies is slippery as hell lol
4.31K
·
09-10
$LULU DIAGONAL 271217/281215 PUT 120.0/PUT 115.0$ Rolled down with credit for the 4th time as the LULU misery continues 😅
LULU Diagonal
09-10 21:30
US120.0/115.0
| Side | Price | Filled | Realized P&L |
|---|---|---|
| Credit Close | -1.00 1 | -- Closed |
TOPNgl this pain trade might actually be getting cleaner if IV keeps fading 😅 fourth roll with credit is rough, but theta is finally doing some work
3.78K
·
09-10
$NFLX 20261218 54.0 PUT$ Sold some Netflix while watching Netflix to pay for the subscription
NFLX PUT
09-10 22:48
US20261218 54.0
| Side | Price | Filled | Realized P&L |
|---|---|---|
| Sell Open | 0.30 2Lot(s) | -26.66% Holding |
TOP54 for Dec feels kinda rich lol. I care more about why you stopped at 54 instead of going lower into March
4.69K
·
09-11
$FLNC 20260918 13.0 PUT$ Decided to cut loss. 😭😭😭 $FLNC 20260918 13.0 PUT$ Time to eat grass liao.
FLNC PUT
09-10 22:57
US20260918 13.0
| Side | Price | Filled | Realized P&L |
|---|---|---|
| Buy Close | 3.00 10Lot(s) | -142.13% Closed |
TOPFrom your posts recommendation, got in at $9.90 cost basis. Hope it can prove itself n convert more of the backlog demand 😃😃 Else ,im also GG on this ):
1.70K
·
09-11
$TSM 20261016 360.0 PUT$ Reached 80% profit, so good to take it even there is 35 DTE left. Redeploy capital.
TSM PUT
09-11 21:49
US20261016 360.0
| Side | Price | Filled | Realized P&L |
|---|---|---|
| Buy Close | 1.17 3Lot(s) | +80.20% Closed |
TOPTaking 80% with 35 DTE left is clean. On TSM puts that last stretch usually pays less than the risk anyway, were you targeting a profit level or just freeing up buying power
8.01K
·
09-11
$GOOGL CALENDAR 261002/261120 PUT 315.0/PUT 315.0$ Reached 50% profit with 21 DTE left. Decided to roll for another 1.5 months for more premium. How can you not be bullish if a first world sovereign country is accumulating GOOGL in its investment portfolio?
GOOGL Calendar
09-11 22:40
US315.0/315.0
| Side | Price | Filled | Realized P&L |
|---|---|---|
| Credit Close | -7.23 1 | -- Closed |
TOPAI revenue surprise was the tell after earnings, and sovereign accumulation just adds another floor. That roll makes sense with 21 DTE left
1.46K
·
09-11
$TQQQ CALENDAR 260925/261030 PUT 65.0/PUT 65.0$ With just 25 days left before expiration, decided to take the 50% profit and roll for another month to collect higher premium.
TQQQ Calendar
09-11 22:48
US65.0/65.0
| Side | Price | Filled | Realized P&L |
|---|---|---|
| Credit Close | -2.39 2 | -- Closed |
TOPTheta did a lot of the work here. Another month out usually prices better when TQQQ stays jumpy
7.65K
·
09-11
$AMD 20260918 515.0 CALL$ near-term rate and inflation risks may create volatility, but semiconductor fundamentals remain strong. AMD’s data-center revenue more than doubled year-on-year, while AI infrastructure demand continues accelerating. Recent pullbacks offer attractive entry points for leveraged upside if earnings growth continues to outpace macro headwinds.
AMD CALL
09-11 22:36
US20260918 515.0
| Side | Price | Filled | Realized P&L |
|---|---|---|
| Buy Open | 15.60 1Lot(s) | -- Closed |
TOPData-center revenue doubling is the hard part, but next quarter capex holding above 30% is what keeps this bid alive
11.35K
·
09-11
$SOFI 20261023 20.5 CALL$ Sell a covered call on SoFi now to monetize elevated volatility while maintaining equity exposure. With inflation at 3.4% and markets pricing higher odds of Fed tightening, rate-sensitive fintech valuations could remain volatile. Strong consumer demand and SoFi’s diversified financial-services platform support the shares, making premium income attractive.
SOFI CALL
09-11 22:48
US20261023 20.5
| Side | Price | Filled | Realized P&L |
|---|---|---|
| Sell Open | 0.30 1Lot(s) | +56.67% Holding |
TOPCovered call makes sense here, but 20.5 feels a bit capped. I care more about the consumer book holding up than the macro noise lol
917
·
09-11
$MU 20261009 755.0 PUT$ Last trade for the night . Night guys ! It's Weekend tomorrow and I'm so tired ....
MU PUT
09-11 23:21
US20261009 755.0
| Side | Price | Filled | Realized P&L |
|---|---|---|
| Sell Open | 5.50 1Lot(s) | +59.19% Holding |
TOPSleep first lol, but the real juice is still HBM demand and the memory cycle turn
18.47K
·
09-12
$CRWV 20260918 89.0 PUT$ Aiyo... tot will expire worthless this week. Closing this option ans selling put later (rolling it) Be water, my friend—stay calm, adapt, and let the market do its thing. Watch me pocket $30K in premiums in Sep. Jun/Jul/Aug: $1,721 / $26,431 / $34,103 Sep 2026: $16,940
CRWV PUT
09-12 02:05
US20260918 89.0
| Side | Price | Filled | Realized P&L |
|---|---|---|
| Sell Open | 3.35 1Lot(s) | -- Closed |
TOPsorry, this option selling put to a lower strike price (yet still collect a premium after taking into account the earlier closed trade) Aiyo... tot will expire worthless this week. Closing this option ans selling put later (rolling it) Be water, my friend—stay calm, adapt, and let the market do its thing. Watch me pocket $30K in premiums in Sep. Jun/Jul/Aug: $1,721 / $26,431 / $34,103 Sep 2026: $17,320
6.17K
·
09-12
$UNH DIAGONAL 260911/260925 PUT 385.0/PUT 380.0$ Rolled down my strike price to a further expiration date yet still collect a premium Be water, my friend—stay calm, adapt, and let the market do its thing. Watch me pocket $30K in premiums in Sep. Jun/Jul/Aug: $1,721 / $26,431 / $34,103 Sep 2026: $17,550
UNH Diagonal
09-12 02:03
US385.0/380.0
| Side | Price | Filled | Realized P&L |
|---|---|---|
| Credit Close | -2.38 1 | -- Closed |
TOPHow much did the 2609 PUT OI around 385 and 380 increase over the last week? If institutions are selling puts there too, that sync matters
14.48K
·
09-12
$BitMine Immersion Technologies Inc.(BMNR)$ BMNR: sold 300 shares of BMNR at $19 as part of covered call expired in the money. This is the last part of BMNR shares in possession and sold with small profit. These shares were originally assigned in May when BMNR dipped below $19 and as low as $12.80 on 30th June. Then the reversal in early July started and by 19th Aug, it had became profitable again. Glad to have cashed out and close the multi months chapter for this wheel strategy in the profitable outcome.
BMNR
09-12 13:17
USBitMine Immersion Technologies Inc.
| Side | Price | Realized P&L |
|---|---|---|
| Sell Close | 19.00 | +5.56% Closed |
TOPThat $12.80 to $19 round trip stings a bit ngl, I would've folded way before the covered call finally paid off