Grateful for the Gains, Looking Ahead A little reflection on Tesla, SpaceX, and the opportunities that come with staying patient and disciplined in the markets. Tesla continues to be one of the most fascinating names in the market, with investors watching closely as the company pushes further into autonomy, robotics, Cybercab and the long-awaited Roadster. At the same time, SpaceX represents another major piece of the broader innovation story surrounding Elon Musk, from space technology and satellite connectivity to the possibilities that could reshape entire industries. For me, the biggest takeaway is not simply the price movement, but the importance of having the patience to let a trade develop and the discipline to take profits when the opportunity presents itself. I'm genuinely gratefu

Hello. The biggest story last night was Nvidia out raising money: it is working with Blackstone, BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, KKR and others on a consortium to fund AI infrastructure, for as much as US$500 billion, to be spent on AI chips, power generation and data centres. $英伟达(NVDA)$ fell 2.86 per cent on the news. It didn't fall because demand is short. It fell because people have started to wonder whether Nvidia is creating that demand itself: it has signed agreements worth hundreds of billions of dollars with participants across the AI ecosystem, lifting overall demand and valuations, while those counterparties themselves depend on the AI boom staying alive. That structure has a name. Circular financing. Jensen Huang answered on

Hello. Friday's payrolls report was genuinely bad: July payrolls fell by 23,000, the May and June gains were revised down by a combined 103,000, and hourly earnings rose just 3.2 per cent year on year. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 0.62 per cent to a record close. $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ rose 1.30 per cent and $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ 0.28 per cent. Data that bad turned out to be good news, because the market immediately cut the odds of a September rate rise to about 44 per cent. Loosen the rate outlook and valuations get room to breathe: $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ ros

Stop thinking about the 480,126 deliveries. The market has had three weeks to process that number. TSLA is still trading below its pre-delivery report levels at $376 to $379. That one fact tells you everything about what tonight's print actually needs to deliver: not more evidence that Tesla can sell cars, but evidence that selling 480,000 cars at $25 billion in capex does not permanently destroy the margin structure that justifies trading at 175 to 180 times forward earnings. Tonight's call is entirely about three numbers. Automotive gross margin. Free cash flow. Cybercab production rate. The first two tell you whether the car business is being sacrificed to fund the future. The third tells you whether the future is arriving on any recognisable timeline. What the Estimates Actually Say Th

Key Takeaways Revenue rose 26% YoY to US$28.24B. Deliveries hit 480,126 units, up 25% YoY. Automotive gross margin ex-credits fell to 16.3%. Operating margin dropped to 1.4%. CapEx reached US$5.79B, causing negative FCF of US$1.09B. 2026 CapEx will exceed US$25B. FSD paid users reached 1.48M. Robotaxi passed 380,000 unsupervised miles with no notable incidents. SpaceX gains added about US$1B to Tesla’s net income. TSLA fell around 4% after hours as investors focused on margins and cash flow. Tesla reported strong Q2 2026 revenue and record deliveries, but profit quality was much weaker. Revenue reached US$28.24B, up 26% YoY and above market estimates. Adjusted EPS came in at US$0.33, below the expected US$0.49. The result was clear: Tesla sold more cars, but earned less from each dollar of

Heading into the print with shares trading around $380, the setup is unusual: $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ has already delivered the good news on volume. Earlier this month, Tesla reported record Q2 deliveries of 480,126 units (+25% YoY), crushing consensus estimates of ~406,000. Production came in at 451,758 units, meaning deliveries exceeded production for the first time in several quarters, drawing down inventory. However, because those deliveries were driven by aggressive promotional zero-APR financing, discounts, and regional incentives, the core debate has shifted entirely from volume to margin quality. Wall Street Consensus Expectations Executive Summary: Tesla (TSLA) Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings Tesla reported its Q1 2026 financial results on April 22,

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ ’s Q2 2026 earnings provided a stark visual of the new reality facing Big Tech: AI ambition requires massive, front-loaded capital expenditure (CapEx). Tesla signaled a full-year CapEx budget exceeding $25 billion, which pushed quarterly Free Cash Flow (FCF) into negative territory as compute infrastructure, FSD training, and Optimus robotics scaling ate into cash reserves. This dynamic extends far beyond Tesla—it is the prevailing operational model across mega-cap tech. 1. Will high AI spending burn rate remain the norm? Yes. High CapEx intensity is non-negotiable for any company competing at the frontier of AI. The industry is in the middle of a multi-trillion-dollar infrastructure overhaul that spans data center constructio

The sudden drop below the $400 mark is a classic display of $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$’s signature volatility. Interestingly, the 7.5% sell-off didn’t actually stem from "bad" news; Tesla just delivered a massive Q2 beat (480,126 vehicles vs. the ~406,000 expected). The plunge is a textbook "sell-the-news" reaction after the stock rallied 12% leading up to the announcement, coupled with sudden hype and uncertainty surrounding a potential SpaceX merger. Buying the Dip: Key Signals to Watch Whether this is a "good" time to buy depends entirely on your investment horizon. Tesla is currently priced less like a car company and more like a "physical AI" play (robotaxis, Dojo, humanoid robotics). If you are looking to buy the dip, do not just blindly jump in.

The uncomfortable framing first: the 7.5% drop is not a market error. It is the correct read of a company that just delivered its best quarter ever and then reminded investors that 93% of its current market cap is priced on businesses that still lose money. Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles in Q2 2026, crushing Wall Street consensus of 406,024 by nearly 18%. Up 25% year over year. Up 34% from Q1. Its strongest second quarter ever and its first year-over-year delivery growth after two consecutive years of declines. Energy storage deployments hit 13.5 GWh against an estimate of 13.3. European markets grew 108% year over year. The car business is recovering. The market does not care about the car business. That is the entire story. The Two-Company Problem Apply a traditional auto sector multip

Many existing shareholders and insiders have a much lower cost basis, so they may be willing to sell if the price moves significantly higher. Riding the trend and buy back at a lower price later. 

My interpretation of the latest market movement is that the market has shifted from rewarding “good” results to demanding “exceptional” results with a convincing forward outlook. Tesla’s latest Q2 earnings are a good example of this change. Here’s how I see the current environment: 1. The market is now forward-looking, not backward-looking The Q2 numbers describe what happened over the last three months. However, institutional investors are pricing what earnings will look like over the next 12–24 months. Tesla delivered strong revenue growth, but investors focused on: * Earnings per share missing expectations. * Gross margin compression. * Negative free cash flow due to massive capital expenditure. * Management reaffirming even higher spending on AI, Robotaxi, Optimus and semiconductor man

🚖 Tesla Reclaims $400: Is the Robotaxi Era Finally Here? Tesla has once again captured Wall Street’s attention, climbing back above the psychologically important $400 level following the launch of its Robotaxi service in Miami. For years, Elon Musk has promised that autonomous driving would become Tesla’s biggest value driver. Investors have heard the story before—but this time feels different because there is finally a real-world rollout. ⸻ 📈 What Happened? Tesla shares rallied after news that its Robotaxi service officially began operating in Miami. Rather than another software update or ambitious announcement, this represents one of Tesla’s first large-scale commercial deployments of autonomous ride-hailing technology. Markets reacted positively because investors see Robotaxi as a poten

Were we expecting anything else? Elon Musk treats it like a game where he moves money from one pocket to another, what happens when the value starts sliding? Have another of his company buy an asset at an overinflated value without really paying anyone anything (moving Twitter into Spacex by acquiring his own Xai conpany). Side tracking here, but some numbers foe reference: 1. Oct 2022, acquire Twitter for 44bn 2. Mar 2025, acquire it into Xai and combines with the AI side quests at a total value of 113bn 3. Finally Spacex acquires Xai in Feb 2026 for 250bn. (Wonderful stuff right here, I wish I had so much money that I could claim my bag of junk is worth billions of dollars, and double in value every 2 years) Worth noting, Tesla is trying to pad their numbers by claiming profit from