To The Moon

I. Smartphone Business Holds the Fort, Overall Results in Line with Expectations Smartphone average selling price hit an all-time high (passing through rising costs) → Q2 smartphone gross margin remained above 8%. Shipments exceeded expectations: Omdia data showed Q2 shipments of 31.2 million units, 15% above Morgan Stanley's forecast. New model launches and export plans are key to restarting growth: EV sales have slowed significantly in 2026 year-to-date. To reignite market enthusiasm, Xiaomi plans to deliver its first SUV model in late September 2026. Additionally, Xiaomi plans to begin exporting vehicles in 2027. Overall financials: Total revenue is expected to exceed RMB 100 billion, with recurring net profit of approximately RMB 6 billion, in line with expectations. Core tension: Smar

One-sentence theme: The AI primary market is red-hot (Anthropic's $2 trillion IPO pushes valuations to the limit), while secondary market funds continue to go long on the Nasdaq and short Hong Kong stocks. The tone remains unchanged: Sell Puts on pullbacks, don't chase highs. I. Sentiment Focus: Anthropic's $2 Trillion IPO — Valuation Supported by the "Future" Valuation maxed out: According to Reuters, Anthropic's IPO valuation is anchored to revenue expectations two years out — projected 2028 revenue of $190–200 billion (far above the $47 billion annualized run rate in May). This framework could support a valuation approaching $2 trillion. Growth is staggering: According to Bloomberg, Q2 revenue exceeded $11.5 billion, up 14x YoY and 2.4x QoQ (from $4.73 billion last quarter). Anthropic i

The above chart shows the weekly volatility ranges and simulated short put alternative strike prices for 17 key stocks, calculated based on various indicators — for simulation reference only 👆 📊 Noteworthy Points IV continues to broadly decline (off-season + no near-term earnings): Compared to last week — SKHY 87% → 78.5%, MU 75% → 67%, SPCX 89% → 67%, INTC 74% → 68%, AMD 63% → 59%. Volatility expectations for storage/AI names continue to cool, and seller premiums are thinning out. SPY at 19.46%, QQQ at 22.38%, AAPL at 24.74% — the broader market remains extremely stable. NVDA reports earnings on August 26, which will also impact AMD's stock price. AAPL at 305.8 and GOOGL at 345.9 are both sitting at the lower end of last week's forecast ranges, resting on support levels. Barring debt issu

Color Legend 🔴 Red: Broke above/below the forecast range, or broke above/below the simulated strike alternative. 🟠 Orange: Briefly broke above/below the range, but closed within the strike range. I. This Week's Simulation Results: 3 Wins, 1 Floating Loss SPCX Sell Put, 8/14 expiry at 120 — profitable, current price 0.03, nearly zeroed out, a complete win. SKHY Sell Put, 8/21 expiry at 120 — profitable, current price 0.18, storage rebound, safe. AMD Sell Put, 8/21 expiry at 400 — profitable, current price 0.51, sustainable (roll to next week's 400 Put). TSLA Sell Call, 8/21 expiry at 350 — floating loss, current price 4.00. 340 is strong resistance; if it holding above 340, breaking through 342.5, and rebounding to 345 on Monday, consider closing or rolling to a higher Call. The seller envi

One-sentence theme: AI bulls and bears are in a direct face-off — Lenovo's AI order explosion (bullish) vs Burry's broad-based AI shorting (bearish). But looking one layer deeper, the shorts are really betting on "compute rental prices falling." The strategic tone remains unchanged: position via Sell Puts on dips, don't chase highs. I. Sentiment Focus: Bulls vs Bears 🟢 Bulls: Lenovo AI Orders Surge Lenovo's Q1 net profit broke through $1 billion, with AI server backlog orders reaching $54 billion. This drove DELL and HPE higher in pre-market trading. → DELL is a good Sell Put candidate ahead of earnings (riding the AI server demand theme). 🔴 Bears: Burry Strikes Again, Calling "NVIDIA = Enron" Michael Burry shorted: NBIS (247), Micron (924), ORCL (152), and also shorted SOXX. He compared N

I. Valuation Is Cheap Q2 total revenue is expected to decline 3% YoY, while non-GAAP net profit is expected to grow 18% YoY — results are likely in line with or slightly above consensus. Delivery loss visibility has improved: expected to drop significantly from the 2025 peak of RMB 13 billion to below RMB 6 billion in Q2 2026. JoyBuy is expanding modestly into Italy, Spain, and Greece; the acquisition of Germany's Ceconomy (€2.2 billion) has received approval from the German Ministry of Economic Affairs. Earnings recovery is solid + valuation is not demanding. Current 2026/27 P/E is only 9.6/7.7x — valuation is reasonable. Core tension: Revenue pressure (high base, -3%) but strong profit growth (+18%, delivery loss narrowing), combined with extremely low valuation (8–9x P/E) → long-term va

One-sentence theme: CPI came in as expected, focus shifts to compute — demand-side continues to validate (CRWV/NBIS capacity sold out, Temasek eyeing Korean storage, CME launching compute futures). Strategic tone: Pullbacks are opportunities for Sell Put positioning, not reasons to chase highs. I. Macro: CPI in Line, No Surprises CPI came in at +3.4% YoY, core at +2.5% — both in line with expectations. The probability of a September rate hike remains unchanged at 45%. → No change to the rate-cut trade rhythm; neutral impact on the broader market. II. Compute Theme: Strong Demand-Side Validation ✅ CRWV: Backlog orders at $104 billion, EPS -1.14 beat the -1.41 consensus. NBIS stated that all 2027 capacity is already sold out. → Compute demand remains very strong and shows no signs of slowing

I. No Surprises in Earnings, But Key Product Launches Are Imminent Tencent Q2 expectations: Total revenue +8.8% YoY (consensus +10%), adjusted net profit +4.7% (consensus +9%) — both slightly below consensus, a near-term risk point. WeChat AI assistant beta launch and foundational model improvements are underway. The market may be underestimating Tencent's leading position in China's AI agent orchestration layer (WorkBuddy ranks #1 in user base). Capex for 2026–28 is raised 23–25% to RMB 185B/225B/250B. Forward EPS is lowered due to increased AI investment. Tencent will host its Global Digital Ecosystem Summit in September 2026, focusing on breakthroughs in WeChat AI agents, WorkBuddy, and other 2C products. The WeChat AI launch is expected in Q3 2026, followed by the Hunyuan (HY) foundati

Today's one-sentence theme: The AI theme continues (Intel's fundraising expansion, Anthropic's planned IPO), while storage enters a phase of "high IV but the leveraged surge is over." Hong Kong stocks get a catalyst from the Hang Seng Tech Index expansion. Strategic tone: Sell into high IV, sell Puts on quality names on pullbacks. I. Today's New Focus Areas Intel Fundraising: Short-Term Negative, But Overwhelming Demand Is a Strong Endorsement The stock fell 4% on Monday. The fundraising scale expanded from $15 billion to $20 billion, with subscription demand exceeding $100 billion. Pricing is expected above $95, with proceeds going toward accelerating AI and advanced manufacturing. Interpretation (through the lens of equity financing logic): Equity financing is typically a short-term nega

Today's one-sentence theme: The rate-cut trade continues, with the broader market hitting new highs and entering high-level consolidation. Today's new highlights: Berkshire's big bet on Google, TSMC's revenue confirming AI demand, and PLTR/AAOI leading the gains. The main play remains — "don't chase highs, use Sell Puts on pullbacks to position." I. Today's New Focus Areas 1. Berkshire Hathaway Q2 Holdings: Heavy Bet on Google (Significant) $4.5 billion in buybacks, $6.8 billion acquisition of homebuilder Taylor Morrison, $10 billion into Google, $10 billion added to Japan exposure. Interpretation: The last time Buffett made a bet of this magnitude was on Apple. This Google position is a powerful long-term bullish signal. → Google is a strong candidate for long-term Sell Put strategies (bu