Gold and silver Possibly a buying opportunity, but not an aggressive one. The selloff was driven more by forced liquidations than weakening fundamentals. Gold’s structural support remains intact, though near-term volatility is likely. Gradual accumulation is preferable. Silver remains higher risk due to speculation. Big Tech in February Selective trimming makes sense. Underperformance points to leadership fatigue, not a broken AI story. Reducing crowded, fully valued names helps manage concentration risk while keeping core exposure. January Barometer for 2026 Supportive, but not decisive. Policy uncertainty and cross-asset volatility suggest a choppy Q1. A pullback would not rule out a constructive 2026. January earnings Solid but uneven. Guidance mattered more than beats. Markets reward
A thoughtful set of questions. January rarely tells a simple story this year. 1. Is the Gold and Silver selloff a “Golden Pit”? Possibly, but selectively and with discipline. The drawdown had all the hallmarks of forced liquidation rather than a fundamental breakdown. Structural drivers for gold remain intact, including central bank demand, geopolitical hedging and longer-term policy uncertainty. That said, after such extreme volatility, a period of consolidation would be healthy. Gradual accumulation on weakness looks more prudent than aggressive dip-buying, especially for silver, which remains far more speculative. 2. Trimming Big Tech in February? Not a wholesale exit, but some rebalancing makes sense. Big Tech is no longer uniformly cheap, and leadership has narrowed. Trimming stretche
Market Context and Recent Price Action Recent sharp sell-offs in gold and silver were among the most extreme in decades, reflecting forced liquidations, extreme leverage unwinding, and technical stresses rather than outright changes in fundamentals. Silver, in particular, saw outsized moves driven by speculative positioning in China and subsequent margin calls. Both metals then staged a strong intraday rebound, with spot gold back above $4 800 and silver reclaiming around the $83 mark. Short-term price spikes and reversals of this magnitude often occur when markets have been stretched beyond typical trading ranges. These reversals can be driven as much by trading dynamics (positions getting flushed) as by investor sentiment. --- Is This a Renewed Rally? Arguments in favour of a
$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ Earnings and Guidance Highlights Palantir reported Q4 2025 results that significantly beat expectations with revenue of about $1.41 billion (up ~70 per cent year-on-year) and adjusted EPS topping forecasts. The company’s strong performance was driven by both U.S. government and commercial segments. Management issued upbeat guidance for 2026, forecasting full-year revenue of approximately $7.18–7.20 billion (around ~61 per cent growth) and guiding first-quarter revenue ahead of consensus. After the results the stock rallied meaningfully in after-hours and pre-market trading, reversing some earlier weakness this year. Drivers of Growth Demand remains very strong from U.S. government an
My call for Friday’s close (post-earnings): $140–$160 is the highest-probability outcome. Why: The market is already pricing a large move. A clean beat on revenue and EPS is likely, but to push above $160, Palantir needs clearly upgraded 2026 guidance and strong commentary on US commercial AI momentum. A “beat but guide inline” outcome usually caps upside. Below $140 only comes into play if guidance disappoints or macro risk-off intensifies. Will Palantir stage a comeback? Yes, but it is more likely a grind, not a vertical move. Fundamentals remain intact and the sell-off looks positioning-driven, not thesis-breaking. Is $200 easy to hit in 2026? No. Possible, but not easy. It requires sustained commercial growth acceleration, expanding margins, and a supportive macro for high-multiple A
Is this short-term deleveraging or a deeper trend shift? Near term: deleveraging. Medium term: narrative stress. The current move has all the hallmarks of a forced unwind rather than a fundamental collapse. ETF outflows, reduced risk appetite, and tighter liquidity conditions are pressuring leveraged positioning. That said, the divergence versus gold is real and matters. Crypto is behaving like a high-beta liquidity asset, not a defensive store of value, which weakens the “digital gold” framing in this phase of the cycle. This does not kill the long-term thesis, but it re-anchors crypto firmly to global liquidity, not safe-haven demand. Are you buying the dip or staying on the sidelines? I would not aggressively buy this first leg down. Historically, sharp crypto drawdowns linked to macro
Would I sell or add at $4,600? I would add selectively, not sell, assuming this is not a forced-liquidity event. A dip of this magnitude after a parabolic move is consistent with position cleansing, not trend failure. The key is position sizing, not conviction. Is the bull market still intact? Yes, structurally. The correction looks like a volatility reset rather than a regime change. Why the bull case still holds Macro floor remains firm: real yields are capped, fiscal deficits persist, and central-bank gold accumulation remains strong. Geopolitical and policy risk premiums have not unwound meaningfully. Demand is diversifying: central banks, long-term allocators, and retail hedgers are all present, not just fast money. What this move likely was A crowded positioning shake-out after extre
$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ 1. Why Palantir is down despite strong recent gains Palantir’s share price is weaker in early 2026 with a ~18% drawdown from recent highs and pressure on high-beta tech names at the start of the year. Softness reflects risk-off behaviour in the broader market rather than a fundamental collapse. Palantir has delivered strong performance over the past few years, mirroring classic momentum and AI-driven positioning in software. Market psychology has been volatile as AI-linked stocks rotate, and some longer-term holders take profits after outsized moves. Price action does not necessarily imply deterioration in Palantir’s core growth trends. 2. Fundamental expectations for Q4 2025 (reported 2 Feb 202
AI Momentum and Google Cloud Growth AI as a reacceleration vector • The prevailing view on Street expectations is that AI, particularly Gemini, has materially lifted investor sentiment and may begin to show through to tangible revenue growth beyond advertising alone. Recent commentary highlights that Gemini integration is expected to aid growth in search advertising by improving user engagement and monetisation. • Cloud remains the fastest-growing reporting segment for Alphabet, with triple-digit backlog growth noted in prior quarters and forecasted continued acceleration. • Analysts are specifically watching whether AI enhancements can drive meaningfully faster growth in Google Cloud, not just in headline top-line figures but also in margin expansion and a path to sustained pr
$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ 1. Current Context • The stock has pulled back in 2026, down roughly 18% year-to-date, echoing a similar early-year slump in 2024 that preceded a very strong rally. • Consensus expectations for the Q4 results are for revenue north of ~US$1.34 billion and adjusted EPS around US$0.23, representing high-teens to low-double-digit growth relative to prior periods. • Valuation remains elevated relative to traditional software peers, with forward multiples reflecting very high expectations. 2. Fundamentals and AI Positioning Bullish structural factors: • The company’s growth has been underpinned by accelerating adoption of its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) by both government and co