$1 Trln IPO Valuation! Can OpenAI Raise So Much & Pay for AI Complex?
According to Reuters, OpenAI Prepares for IPO at $1 Trillion Valuation
From 2026 onward, OpenAI’s commercialization capabilities will no longer be just the concern of early investors—they will become the lifeline of a trillion-dollar industrial chain.
OpenAI needs to grow as fast as Nvidia to achieve its wildest dream.
In a situation where OpenAI’s revenues and expenditures are severely mismatched, the ecosystem associated with OpenAI is undoubtedly the largest risk in the industry.
Although ChatGPT already has 800 million users and its user growth surpasses all previous successful internet platforms, what is growing even faster than user numbers is the underlying computing power demand and the supply orders OpenAI has already committed to.
1. Stargate Project: Deep Integration with SoftBank and $Oracle(ORCL)$
The most complex collaboration ecosystem is OpenAI’s Stargate project, which deeply links OpenAI with Oracle, Nvidia, SoftBank, and other companies. The market criticizes this for “capital recycling”.
Their data center GPU chips are mostly purchased from Nvidia. The earliest operational facility, Abilene, uses nearly all Nvidia products, including—but not limited to—the GB200, GB300, and VR200 series.
As the partner most tightly bound to OpenAI, $Oracle(ORCL)$ has also staked its fortunes. The upside is that future revenue growth is almost entirely determined by OpenAI, which will try to direct the bulk of computing power orders to Oracle—for example, a 300 billion USD order over five years starting in 2027. This explains the “explosive” long-term growth guidance in Q2 earnings calls and the “bold” upward adjustments announced at the AI World conference.
2. Collaboration with $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Secures $100 Billion Investment
At the end of September, Nvidia further deepened its financial ties with OpenAI through staged investments (10 billion USD per 1GW deployed), totaling 100 billion USD in “rebates” to OpenAI.
Nvidia also received corresponding OpenAI equity (calculated in stages, with the shareholding ratio capped at 10% as long as OpenAI’s valuation continues to rise), strengthening their mutual interests.
3. Collaboration with $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ : Deploying 1GW GPU and Receiving 160 Million Warrants
OpenAI announced plans to deploy 6GW of AMD Instinct GPUs through cloud providers over the next five years. The first batch will be 1GW of AMD Instinct MI450 GPUs. This strategy of “backup partner” helps avoid being trapped by over-dependence on a single supplier.
In return, AMD will issue up to 160 million warrants to OpenAI in six batches (equivalent to 10% of current equity), at an exercise price of 1 cent—essentially free. Except for the sixth batch, which requires AMD to reach a market cap of 1 trillion USD (roughly double the current share price), the other warrants are structured such that OpenAI could convert them to cash to pay for AMD chips without significantly impacting its cash flow.
4. Collaboration with $Broadcom(AVGO)$ for Custom ASICs
Not content with backing up Nvidia, OpenAI has sought a further contingency by working with Broadcom to develop custom ASICs with 10GW of computing power, mainly for proprietary inference tasks. Deployment is planned to start in the second half of next year, with full computing power construction expected by the end of 2029.
Broadcom’s ASICs are likely to be deployed at Stargate (mostly operated by Oracle) or Oracle data centers. AMD GPUs may occasionally be deployed at Microsoft, as OpenAI’s collaboration with AMD only rolls out the MI450 in late 2026 for training purposes.
While this may appear to be OpenAI anxiously securing compute supply, it could also be a strategic balancing act—locking in key partners early and strengthening the entire ecosystem.
Is OpenAI a blessing or a curse for the market?
How do you view $1 trln IPO valuation?
Would you join the IPO? If possible?
Is AI giants’ capital game a warning sign for market?
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That said, I’m aware of the risks. OpenAI’s massive spending and reliance on key partners could strain finances if growth slows. But with 800 million ChatGPT users and fast enterprise adoption, its long-term potential still looks powerful—possibly echoing Nvidia’s earlier breakout.
In my view, OpenAI’s IPO marks both an opportunity and a stress test for the entire AI sector. Despite concerns of market overheating, I’d still want a piece of it—it’s a rare chance to ride the next wave of trillion-dollar innovation.
@TigerStars @Tiger_comments
這次IPO非常令人興奮，因爲IPO可能使該公司估值高達1萬億美元，這將使其成爲歷史上最大的科技公司之一。
OpenAI成立時以實現人工通用智能爲使命。致力於這一目標的上市公司的前景將使其成爲科技界和投資者的一件大事。
我相信這將是十年來最重要的IPO。這不僅僅是一個金融事件。這是一個遺產時刻。OpenAI籌集的不僅僅是資本。它正在提高可能性的標準——一個由人工智能驅動的世界。
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @TigerClub @CaptainTiger
OpenAI may be a blessing for productivity and innovation, but a curse for labor markets and those concerned about speculative bubbles
A $1 trillion valuation is ambitious but possible, relying on revenue growth and cost management, though it is risky due to the speculative nature of the market
Investors may want to join cautiously, given the growth potential of AI, but should be wary of inflated valuations and speculative risks without clear long-term strategy
The massive investments in AI are exciting but could signal overhyped valuations, monopoly risks, and ethical concerns in the future。。。
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@Huat99
@Snowwhite
A $1 trillion IPO implies massive expectations — pricing perfection. It assumes OpenAI dominates AI software, cloud, and enterprise solutions with high margins. That’s ambitious, considering hardware costs, competition, and regulation.
If I could join the IPO, I’d take a small, speculative stake, not a core position — treat it like early Tesla or Nvidia, with long-term patience but readiness for volatility.
The current AI capital race is both opportunity and warning. Massive capex and fundraisings can spark innovation, but also risk bubble dynamics if returns lag. Smart investors should stay selective — chase innovation, not hype.
1万亿美元的IPO意味着巨大的期望——定价完美。它假设OpenAI以高利润主导人工智能软件、云和企业解决方案。考虑到硬件成本、竞争和监管，这是雄心勃勃的。
如果我能参加IPO，我会持有少量投机性股份，而不是核心头寸——像早期的特斯拉或英伟达一样对待它，保持长期耐心，但要做好应对波动的准备。
当前的AI资本竞赛，既是机遇，也是警告。大规模资本支出和融资可以激发创新，但如果回报滞后，也会面临泡沫动态的风险。聪明的投资者应该保持选择性——追逐创新，而不是炒作。
在历史中查看它们——“社区分布”
Did the stock market go up? Did you make money? If the answer is YES! the. Open AI is a blessing.
They will have to open up their books to investors... that will reveal information about what goes on behind the curtain.
I get the sick filling in my stomach that OPENAI might be worsening the bubble though. Considering how Chinese AI companies could catch up with inferior tech, it makes me seriously question if OPENAI would really be viable, and whether the bubble burst really wouldn't take them down (are they really too big to fail?). Feels a little like hubris.
他們的數據中心GPU芯片大多采購自英偉達。最早的運營工廠Abilene使用幾乎所有Nvidia產品，包括但不限於GB200、GB300和VR200系列。
从2026年起，OpenAI的商业化能力将不再仅仅是早期投资者关心的问题——它们将成为一条万亿产业链的生命线。
OpenAI需要像英伟达一样快速增长，才能实现其最疯狂的梦想。