After a $2 Trillion Meltdown: Are You Holding/Adding or Selling?
Last night should have been a celebration — $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ blew past expectations and jobs data looked perfect, sending $S&P 500(.SPX)$ up 1.9% at the open. The party lasted an hour. By the close the market collapsed.
The S&P plunged from its high and wiped out more than $2 trillion in market value. Nvidia swung from +5% to -3%. Bitcoin fell through $90,000. Market expectations suggest the drawdown of BTC may not be over.
What’s striking is that bitcoin’s plunge began before the U.S. equity sell-off — risk appetite appears to have cracked first in crypto, then spilled into stocks. Fear spiked: the VIX jumped above 26 and markets slid straight into panic mode.
PCR lifts but doesn’t reach April level.
As Goldman trader John Flood put it bluntly: “Good news that fails to rally the market is a very bad signal.”
Goldman’s team traced nine interconnected triggers behind the rout:
Nvidia’s upside is priced in — even a stellar report couldn't restore confidence.
Private-credit risks heating up — the Fed explicitly flagged “valuation fragility.”
Jobs data offers no early cut-rate hopes — investors remain uncertain about rate cuts.
Crypto collapse — bitcoin breaching a key psychological level drained risk appetite.
CTA (trend-following) program selling accelerates — technical thresholds were breached and automated selling cascaded.
Shorts return — once trends reverse, short positions quickly amplify the downmove.
Weakness in overseas tech names — global tech weakness weighed on U.S. stocks (big cap tech reversals like Nvidia amplified the effect).
Liquidity drying up — top-of-book depth shrank to only $5–6 million, leaving almost no buffer for big orders.
ETF trading dominates — ETFs accounted for over 40% of volume, so macro-driven flows are now the market’s pulse, increasing volatility.
Goldman’s model shows CTAs will remain net sellers regardless of short-term moves. A critical marker is 6457 on the S&P — a break below that could trigger a larger programmatic sell-off.
And there’s more pressure coming: the largest November options expiries in history arrive this Friday — roughly $3.1 trillion of options will expire (about $1.7T in SPX index options and $725B in single-stock options). That expiry could amplify moves in either direction.
Some names are already down more than 20% from their peaks. The biggest losers so far have been crypto and high-beta tech — they’ve taken the brunt of the sell-off.
With Black Friday and retail discount season approaching, the question on many traders’ minds is: is now the time to add?
What’s your plan to buy the dip?
Which stock enters your buy zone?
In the face of plunging stocks, are you holding/adding or selling?
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My strategy is to systematically scale into high-conviction names rather than blindly buying the dip. I will deploy cash gradually, primarily after the options-related turbulence subsides. My buy zone focuses on two areas: high-quality technology names that have been oversold, like NVDA, which I would add to aggressively on further weakness, and strong consumer discretionary names ahead of the holiday season, such as AMZN or WMT.
In summary, I am choosing to Hold core positions and Add tactically with fresh capital, maintaining discipline and a long-term view while avoiding leveraged trades until market structure stabilizes.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars
Holding works for diversified portfolios of stable companies, adding to oversold tech or consumer goods is smart for long-term investors, while selling is necessary if the market outlook is bearish or stocks diverge from financial goals
Defensive stocks offer stability, but aggressive long-term investors target oversold chipmakers and big tech for deep discounts on resilient AI growth trends
The decision to buy or sell depends on investment style, with value investors seeking undervalued companies, growth investors focusing on long-term potential in oversold stocks, and selling to reduce exposure to underperforming assets
Tag :
@Huat99
@Snowwhite
For many, the first instinct is to sell, to stop the pain. But for the long term investor, holding on is an defiant act of faith. It is a declaration that you have done your research & you believe in the companies you own. You know that these selloffs are not a reflection of the companies' long term value but of market panic.
You hold not because you are reckless but because you are patient. You understand that selling now is the one guaranteed way to lock in your losses.
For the courageous, this isn't the time for retreat. It is the time for a calculated offensive. The fear gripping the market is creating opportunities. Remember, the market long term trend is up & dips are where future gains are made.
As Warren Buffett likes to say "Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful."
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @TigerClub @CaptainTiger
Meta is under my radar since it's a great company with good fundamental and it's undervalued now.
In the face of plunging stocks, I am holding good fundamental companies stocks for long term; while selling smallcap growth companies due to their high volatility and weakness.
With the uncertainty of bull or bear wins, I am looking at picking up #QQQ, VOO along the way. In worst case, just sit on it for bull to recover. At least this bull will not die (bankrupt). 😅
Check them in the history - “community distribution“
Buying when the market is on the way down takes serious courage, coz it’s against what everyone else is crying and doing, but that’s exactly how you win (and possibly win big) in time to come.
There’s a joke when I learnt investing last time, where my mentor would sarcastically say to me, “stock go up u don’t wana chase coz of fomo, stock goes sideways u also don’t wana buy, coz no movement, stock goes down hard, u still don’t wana buy coz you’re afraid… then what u want?”
That statement sticks even till today.
2. I will buy in tranches.
3. I am monitoring Nvidia and Meta.
4. I am holding for the stocks that I have conviction while plunging temporarily.
Is it time to add
Yes for quality names, but stagger entries since volatility may continue into year-end.
My buy-the-dip plan
Scale in over two to three weeks, keep cash for further swings, and prioritise firms with stable guidance.
Buy-zone candidates
Google, Microsoft and Amazon for steady accumulation. Nvidia looks attractive after a larger pullback. Tesla and Meta suit higher-risk profiles. Crypto offers value only for those who accept extreme volatility.
Hold or sell
Hold or add if the long-term thesis has not changed. Sell only if fundamentals weaken or if the position is too large for comfort.
• 不抢早刀，也不追反弹；
• 大盘没企稳前，只做分批布局；
• 真正值得补的，是长期逻辑没坏、但被情绪砸下来的优质科技、医疗和AI基础设施股。
如果你手上拿着的是基本面扎实的公司，我倾向于“抱稳甚至小加”；
但如果是高估值、靠故事撑的投机股，那趁反弹减一减反而更稳。
这不是市场的终点，但绝对不是随便All-in的时候。
暴跌是机会，但更是考验——能不能活下去，比赚多少更重要。
2. 美联储点名民间信贷有“估值脆弱性”。
3. 就业数据虽好，但没有让人看到降息的希望。
4. 加密崩盘 → 风险偏好直接蒸发。
5. CTA程序性卖盘一触即发。
6. 空头卷土重来，加速杀跌。
7. 全球科技股走弱，美国巨头被拖下水。
8. 流动性惊人地差，大单一来就砸穿。
9. ETF占交易量40%，市场越来越像“一键情绪机”。
最让我担心的是：高盛的模型显示CTA接下来还是净卖家，只要标普跌破6457，自动卖盘会像雪崩一样加速。
更糟的是，“好消息撑不住市场”——这句话真的刺中要点。高盛的交易员John Flood说得很直接：当利好都推不动市场，那通常意味着大问题。