To The Moon

A Nasdaq technical correction (−10%) is not unusual. Historically, corrections happen almost every year, but not all corrections become bear markets. The key question is whether this is liquidity-driven correction or earnings-driven downturn.

At the moment, the drivers look like:

Higher-for-longer interest rates

Energy prices and inflation uncertainty

Valuation compression in mega-cap tech

Position unwinding after the AI rally

This looks more like a valuation and liquidity reset, not a collapse in tech earnings yet.

Would I reduce positions now?

Reducing heavily after a −10% correction is usually late. Risk management is normally done near highs, not after drawdowns. At this stage, strategy matters more than direction:

If overexposed to Mag 7 → trim slightly and rebalance

If holding long term → corrections are usually hold/accumulate periods

If trading → wait for volatility bottom before re-entering

What I would watch now:

1. Nasdaq −15% level (strong support zone historically)

2. Bond yields direction

3. Nvidia / Microsoft earnings guidance

4. Oil prices and inflation expectations

Simple framework:

−10% = Correction

−15% to −20% = Good accumulation zone

−25% = Bear market risk

So this is probably risk reduction and portfolio rebalance stage, not full move to cash stage unless macro conditions deteriorate significantly.