I would wait for Micron rather than chase Friday’s memory rally.
The sector’s fundamentals remain attractive, but Friday’s moves were unusually strong relative to the broader market. Micron closed above $1,000 after gaining 6.1%, while SanDisk jumped 11.9%. At these valuations, good news is increasingly priced in.
September 30 matters more. Micron’s results should tell us whether AI-driven HBM/DRAM demand, pricing and margins are still accelerating. Meanwhile, the Taiwan labour dispute is a genuine tail risk: unions representing nearly 10,000 workers are considering strike action, and Taiwan is Micron’s largest manufacturing base.
I would not short the momentum, but I would not chase it either. Passive flows can push prices higher temporarily; earnings ultimately have to validate them. I would rather miss the last part of the pre-earnings rally and buy after confirmation than pay peak expectations before the industry's first major demand check.
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- zaza10·09-07 13:52That Taiwan labor risk could matter more than Friday's pop. If nearly 10,000 workers are involved, the call better quantify any Q4 capacity hit.LikeReport