To The Moon

Does Copying Warren Buffett Guarantee Success? ​If you lay out Warren Buffett’s portfolio track record over the past few decades, a brutal reality emerges: almost every single one of his most lucrative investments endured a punishing drawdown of 30% to 50%—or more. ​American Express (AmEx): When the Salad Oil Scandal erupted in 1964, Buffett bought in during the crisis. The stock tumbled another 50% after his entry, suffering a peak drawdown between 43% and 50%. ​The Washington Post: He built his position in mid-1973, right before the U.S. stock market crash. By late 1974, his paper value had shrunk by 25%, bottoming out at nearly a 40% loss. ​Wells Fargo: Buying contrarian during the 1989–1990 California real estate crisis, Buffett watched the stock drop another 50% immediately after buyi

thanks for sharing this informative and detailed analysis! is everything that I needed! price targets and entry point listed in a easy to read format!

I would look beyond revenue growth and focus on whether AI infrastructure spending is generating measurable returns. The strongest evidence would be sustained growth in AI-related revenue, improving operating margins and free cash flow, rather than simply higher capital expenditure. I would also want to see customers increasing AI usage and renewing contracts because the technology is delivering real productivity gains. For companies like Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet, the key test is whether revenue from cloud and AI services can grow faster than the cost of building and operating the infrastructure. If returns improve while capital intensity gradually declines, that would give me greater confidence that today’s spending is creating long-term value rather than just expanding capacity.

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For me, the key is cash conversion, not just AI-driven revenue growth. Amazon needs AWS growth to accelerate without capex consuming the resulting operating cash flow. Intel needs AI/server demand and foundry investment to translate into improving margins and operating cash flow, rather than simply higher utilisation. SanDisk needs data-centre and enterprise SSD demand to support pricing, margins and sustainable FCF. The common test is simple: Is incremental AI revenue growing faster than the cash cost of supporting it? Strong revenue or order growth alone is insufficient. I would watch FCF after capex, operating margins and ROIC over several quarters. If those improve while AI investment remains high, that is much stronger evidence that the AI build-out is becoming a cash-generating cycle

Q3 Earnings are here ! On Wed, 28 Oct 2026 the 2 megacap, tech giants - $Microsoft(MSFT)$ and $Alphabet(GOOG)$ announced their quarterly earnings, after US market closed. Both showed strong cloud growth but strangely enough, the market treated them very differently. MSFT shares popped after hours while GOOG stock sank. Why ? Preliminary analysis suggests that a big part of the answer is how each plan to pay for the massive outlays, both have planned. Accelerating Cloud Growth. (1) MSFT earnings at a glance: MSFT beat Wall Street's targets with sales/revenue up +19% YoY, reaching $92.3 billion and exceeding consensus estimates of approx. $90.63 billion. Earnings per share (GAAP) came in at $4.92. Net Incom

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$Microsoft(MSFT)$   $Alphabet(GOOG)$   $Amazon.com(AMZN)$   $Intel(INTC)$   Over roughly 48 hours, the market just ran one of the best experiments we have had on the AI boom. Billions upon billions are being spent. Cloud demand is exploding. Data centres are being built. Memory is being consumed. Yet the stocks reacted completely differently. Why? Because Wall Street has changed the question. In 2024 and 2025, investors asked: “Who is spending on AI?” In 2026, the question is bec

I’d still lean towards Microsoft for now. Azure growing 48% is pretty impressive and at least we can see how AI demand is helping their cloud business. But honestly, both Microsoft and Google are spending crazy amounts on AI 😂 I actually like Google too, especially with Gemini and its existing search business, but the market seems a lot less forgiving when earnings don’t meet expectations. For Amazon, I’ll be watching AWS growth and whether all those new data centres can actually bring in more profits. Intel is a bit different though, I think investors really need to see improvements in its foundry business before getting too excited. AI demand is definitely real, but spending billions doesn’t automatically mean making billions lol. I feel like the next few quarters will be interesting bec

Thank you for the the info

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Microsoft vs Alphabet: AI Spending Is Growing. Where Is the Cash Return? The latest earnings from Microsoft and Alphabet highlight an important question for the entire AI trade: how much profit can companies generate from the enormous amounts they are spending on AI infrastructure? Microsoft delivered a strong quarter, with revenue of $92.3 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $4.89. Azure revenue grew 48% year over year. Yet the market’s reaction was not simply a celebration of those numbers. Alphabet reported $127.58 billion in revenue, but its results missed analyst expectations on key measures. Its shares came under pressure after the announcement, while Microsoft’s shares moved higher in the post-earnings reaction. To me, the divergence shows that investors are becoming more sel

For me, the strongest evidence would be sustained revenue growth from AI services, improving free cash flow and margins, and clear signs that customer demand is keeping pace with infrastructure spending. I would also watch how quickly companies turn new data centre capacity into revenue. If earnings grow faster than capital expenditure over several quarters, that would give me more confidence that today’s AI spending can deliver attractive long-term returns. Until then, I think investors should be selective rather than assuming every AI-related company will benefit equally.

The Federal Reserve held rates as technology shares edged higher The $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ gained 0.60 per cent on Wednesday, while the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 0.28 per cent. The Federal Reserve voted 10–2 to keep its target range at 3.75 per cent to 4.00 per cent. The two dissenters preferred a 25-basis-point increase. The statement described economic activity as strong and inflation as still elevated, offering no clear signal of imminent easing. The indices moved little during the regular session. The more important change came after the close. Microsoft and Alphabet both reported strong cloud growth, but Microsoft gained about 4 per cent in extended trading while Alphabet f

Microsoft and Alphabet’s latest earnings highlight an important divide in the AI trade: strong demand does not automatically translate into stronger shareholder returns. Microsoft reported $92.3 billion in revenue and adjusted EPS of $4.89, with Azure growing 48%. Its post-earnings share price rise suggests investors were encouraged by cloud growth and the company’s ability to support heavy AI investment. Alphabet, meanwhile, reported $127.58 billion in revenue and EPS of $2.12, missing expectations. Its sharp post-earnings decline highlights how quickly sentiment can change when results fail to justify high expectations and rising spending. The next question is whether other companies exposed to AI infrastructure can demonstrate that their investments are generating real financial returns

The latest earnings from $Microsoft(MSFT)$ and $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ have highlighted an important divide in the AI trade: strong demand does not automatically translate into strong financial returns. Microsoft reported $92.3 billion in revenue and adjusted earnings of $4.89 per share, while Azure grew 48%. Alphabet reported $127.58 billion in revenue and earnings of $2.12 per share, missing market expectations according to the reported results. Following the announcements, Microsoft shares rose 3.45% after hours, while Alphabet fell 9.93%. The contrast raises a bigger question for the market: How much evidence do investors need before they believe AI spending will generate attractive returns? Three other companies offer different perspectives on this question. 1. Amazon: Can AWS growth justif

For me, the clearest confirmation would be breadth surviving even if Treasury yields do not fall. I’d want to see QQQ advancing alongside semiconductors, profitable software, financials and small caps, rather than the index being carried by a few high-beta AI names. More stocks moving above their 200-day averages would strengthen the case. I’d also watch the quality of the rally. If companies with strong earnings, improving margins and positive free cash flow outperform those dependent on future contracts or external financing, that would look much healthier than another speculative surge. The strongest signal would therefore be: stable yields + broader participation + earnings-backed gains. If the rally requires rapidly falling yields to continue, I would be less convinced that risk appe

The key is no longer AI demand, but AI economics. For Amazon, I want AWS growth to accelerate while capex growth stabilises, with operating cash flow eventually pulling free cash flow back up. Spending more only works if AWS profits grow faster with it. For Intel, I want data-centre/AI revenue growth accompanied by improving gross margins and foundry economics, not simply higher AI-related sales. For SanDisk, strong AI/data-centre storage demand should translate into higher volumes, sustainable pricing, margin expansion and free cash flow. Across all three, the ultimate test is simple: rising AI revenue + improving margins + stronger FCF without capex having to rise just as quickly. If cash generation consistently outruns incremental investment, the AI boom is creating economic value rathe

It seems that Microsoft Azure cloud did  better than Google cloud and AI expenditure less than expected. Less free cash flow into AI expenditure. 

Q3 Earnings are here ! On Wed, 28 Oct 2026 the 2 megacap, tech giants - $Microsoft(MSFT)$ and $Alphabet(GOOG)$ announced their quarterly earnings, after US market closed. Both showed strong cloud growth but strangely enough, the market treated them very differently. MSFT shares popped after hours while GOOG stock sank. Why ? Preliminary analysis suggests that a big part of the answer is how each plan to pay for the massive outlays, both have planned. Accelerating Cloud Growth. (1) MSFT earnings at a glance: MSFT beat Wall Street's targets with sales/revenue up +19% YoY, reaching $92.3 billion and exceeding consensus estimates of approx. $90.63 billion. Earnings per share (GAAP) came in at $4.92. Net Incom

Does Copying Warren Buffett Guarantee Success? ​If you lay out Warren Buffett’s portfolio track record over the past few decades, a brutal reality emerges: almost every single one of his most lucrative investments endured a punishing drawdown of 30% to 50%—or more. ​American Express (AmEx): When the Salad Oil Scandal erupted in 1964, Buffett bought in during the crisis. The stock tumbled another 50% after his entry, suffering a peak drawdown between 43% and 50%. ​The Washington Post: He built his position in mid-1973, right before the U.S. stock market crash. By late 1974, his paper value had shrunk by 25%, bottoming out at nearly a 40% loss. ​Wells Fargo: Buying contrarian during the 1989–1990 California real estate crisis, Buffett watched the stock drop another 50% immediately after buyi

$Microsoft(MSFT)$   $Alphabet(GOOG)$   $Amazon.com(AMZN)$   $Intel(INTC)$   Over roughly 48 hours, the market just ran one of the best experiments we have had on the AI boom. Billions upon billions are being spent. Cloud demand is exploding. Data centres are being built. Memory is being consumed. Yet the stocks reacted completely differently. Why? Because Wall Street has changed the question. In 2024 and 2025, investors asked: “Who is spending on AI?” In 2026, the question is bec

The Federal Reserve held rates as technology shares edged higher The $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ gained 0.60 per cent on Wednesday, while the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 0.28 per cent. The Federal Reserve voted 10–2 to keep its target range at 3.75 per cent to 4.00 per cent. The two dissenters preferred a 25-basis-point increase. The statement described economic activity as strong and inflation as still elevated, offering no clear signal of imminent easing. The indices moved little during the regular session. The more important change came after the close. Microsoft and Alphabet both reported strong cloud growth, but Microsoft gained about 4 per cent in extended trading while Alphabet f

Microsoft vs Alphabet: AI Spending Is Growing. Where Is the Cash Return? The latest earnings from Microsoft and Alphabet highlight an important question for the entire AI trade: how much profit can companies generate from the enormous amounts they are spending on AI infrastructure? Microsoft delivered a strong quarter, with revenue of $92.3 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $4.89. Azure revenue grew 48% year over year. Yet the market’s reaction was not simply a celebration of those numbers. Alphabet reported $127.58 billion in revenue, but its results missed analyst expectations on key measures. Its shares came under pressure after the announcement, while Microsoft’s shares moved higher in the post-earnings reaction. To me, the divergence shows that investors are becoming more sel

The latest earnings from $Microsoft(MSFT)$ and $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ have highlighted an important divide in the AI trade: strong demand does not automatically translate into strong financial returns. Microsoft reported $92.3 billion in revenue and adjusted earnings of $4.89 per share, while Azure grew 48%. Alphabet reported $127.58 billion in revenue and earnings of $2.12 per share, missing market expectations according to the reported results. Following the announcements, Microsoft shares rose 3.45% after hours, while Alphabet fell 9.93%. The contrast raises a bigger question for the market: How much evidence do investors need before they believe AI spending will generate attractive returns? Three other companies offer different perspectives on this question. 1. Amazon: Can AWS growth justif

Microsoft and Alphabet’s latest earnings highlight an important divide in the AI trade: strong demand does not automatically translate into stronger shareholder returns. Microsoft reported $92.3 billion in revenue and adjusted EPS of $4.89, with Azure growing 48%. Its post-earnings share price rise suggests investors were encouraged by cloud growth and the company’s ability to support heavy AI investment. Alphabet, meanwhile, reported $127.58 billion in revenue and EPS of $2.12, missing expectations. Its sharp post-earnings decline highlights how quickly sentiment can change when results fail to justify high expectations and rising spending. The next question is whether other companies exposed to AI infrastructure can demonstrate that their investments are generating real financial returns

QQQ rose as SoFi and Nebius gained more than 11 per cent The $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$, which tracks the Nasdaq 100, gained 1.27 per cent on Tuesday, while the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 0.60 per cent. $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ jumped 13.42 per cent, $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ gained 11.22 per cent and $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ rose 7.94 per cent. $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$, $Broadcom(AVGO)$ and

The AI investment race is entering another important phase. Microsoft and Alphabet are set to report earnings after Wednesday’s market close, and investors will be looking beyond headline revenue and earnings per share. The bigger question is whether the enormous sums being poured into AI infrastructure are translating into sustainable revenue growth, stronger margins and healthy cash flow. Ahead of the reports, Alphabet gained 0.84% on Tuesday. Consensus estimates put Microsoft at $4.82 in earnings per share on $92.49 billion in revenue, while Alphabet is expected to deliver $3.11 per share on $132.02 billion in revenue. These are substantial numbers, but the market’s reaction will depend on whether both companies can meet elevated expectations and demonstrate that their AI investments ar

Two technology giants are reporting earnings, but the biggest question may not be how quickly their AI businesses are growing. It is whether AI will strengthen their existing business models or gradually undermine them. Microsoft and Alphabet are both investing heavily in artificial intelligence. Yet their biggest opportunities and risks are different. Microsoft wants AI to make its enterprise ecosystem more valuable, while Alphabet must grow its AI business without weakening the search and advertising engine that has powered its profits for years. That difference could become increasingly important as investors assess their long-term growth prospects. 1. Google’s challenge: Protecting the search cash machine Alphabet’s traditional strength is its ability to connect users with information

Microsoft is uniquely positioned to showcase far superior cash conversion compared to Alphabet as both hyperscalers enter their crucial third-quarter earnings reports. In this article, we would like to share how we go about examining $Microsoft(MSFT)$ Microsoft and $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ Alphabet's cash conversion profiles, capital efficiency, monetization strategies, and margin resilience leading into Q3 earnings. 1. Market Performance & Contextual Underperformance Heading into the current earnings cycle, equity markets have delivered a clear verdict on hyperscaler capital allocation strategies. Alphabet’s notable stock underperformance compared to Microsoft isn't merely a reflection of quarterly varianc

On Fri, 23 Oct 2026, US stock markets ended lower as the technology sell-off from earlier in the week spread across the broader market. By the time market called it a week: DJIA: rose marginally by +0.46% (+237.06 to 52,215.16). Best performing index of the week. S&P 500: fell by -1.03% (-79.09 to 7,623.68). Posted 18 new 52-week highs and 8 new lows. Nasdaq: fell by -1.67% (-439.94 to 25,955.34). Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 1.57-to-1 ratio. Worst performing index of the week. Volume on US exchanges was 15.4 billion shares, compared with the 17.2 billion average over the last 20 trading days. Technology shares steadied somewhat to end a turbulent week for the market-driving AI trade, and investors looked ahead to a busy slate of corporate earnings and a Fed interest-rat

I would look beyond revenue growth and focus on whether AI infrastructure spending is generating measurable returns. The strongest evidence would be sustained growth in AI-related revenue, improving operating margins and free cash flow, rather than simply higher capital expenditure. I would also want to see customers increasing AI usage and renewing contracts because the technology is delivering real productivity gains. For companies like Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet, the key test is whether revenue from cloud and AI services can grow faster than the cost of building and operating the infrastructure. If returns improve while capital intensity gradually declines, that would give me greater confidence that today’s spending is creating long-term value rather than just expanding capacity.

For me, the key is cash conversion, not just AI-driven revenue growth. Amazon needs AWS growth to accelerate without capex consuming the resulting operating cash flow. Intel needs AI/server demand and foundry investment to translate into improving margins and operating cash flow, rather than simply higher utilisation. SanDisk needs data-centre and enterprise SSD demand to support pricing, margins and sustainable FCF. The common test is simple: Is incremental AI revenue growing faster than the cash cost of supporting it? Strong revenue or order growth alone is insufficient. I would watch FCF after capex, operating margins and ROIC over several quarters. If those improve while AI investment remains high, that is much stronger evidence that the AI build-out is becoming a cash-generating cycle

thanks for sharing this informative and detailed analysis! is everything that I needed! price targets and entry point listed in a easy to read format!

$Alphabet(GOOG)$   Alphabet and Microsoft report Wednesday after the bell. On paper, investors will compare the usual numbers: Google Cloud vs Azure. AI growth. Capex. Margins. Free cash flow. But I think the more interesting trade is hiding in the charts. Alphabet has fallen from roughly $338.50 to $314, about a 7% reset. Microsoft is around $529-$533, close to the upper end of its recent range. That means these two companies enter the same AI exam with very different expectations already embedded in their stocks. And that matters. 🔵 MICROSOFT HAS TO PROVE THE PREMIUM Microsoft's AI story is arguably cleaner. Azure gives investors a relatively direct way to measure whether enormous AI infrastructure spending is

I’d still lean towards Microsoft for now. Azure growing 48% is pretty impressive and at least we can see how AI demand is helping their cloud business. But honestly, both Microsoft and Google are spending crazy amounts on AI 😂 I actually like Google too, especially with Gemini and its existing search business, but the market seems a lot less forgiving when earnings don’t meet expectations. For Amazon, I’ll be watching AWS growth and whether all those new data centres can actually bring in more profits. Intel is a bit different though, I think investors really need to see improvements in its foundry business before getting too excited. AI demand is definitely real, but spending billions doesn’t automatically mean making billions lol. I feel like the next few quarters will be interesting bec

This may be the most important mega-cap earnings week of the quarter. Microsoft. Alphabet. Amazon. Intel. Together, they sit at the centre of an extraordinary AI capital cycle. But after the market's recent reaction to Meta, I think the question has changed. It is no longer: “Who is spending the most on AI?” It is: “Who is getting paid back fastest?” That distinction could decide not only which mega-cap wins earnings week, but whether the broader AI trade gets its next leg higher. 🔵 AI HAS ENTERED PHASE 2 Phase 1 was about building. Buy GPUs. Build data centres. Secure power. Train bigger models. Spend aggressively. For a while, announcing larger AI capex was itself bullish because it signalled confidence in future demand. But eventually every capex cycle faces the same test: Where is the

Wall Street has officially lost its patience with open-ended AI investments, throwing a high-stakes test at the upcoming mega-cap technology earnings. In this article, we would like to share an article that shows an in-dept capital cycle analysis of hyperscaler infrastructure spending, earnings catalysts, and downstream semiconductor dynamics.We will cover AI capital expenditure supercycle, Wall Street's ROI expectations, upcoming mega-cap tech earnings, downstream impacts on semiconductor leaders, and historical investment comparisons. I. The Capex Pivot: Shifting Wall Street Expectations For the past three years, financial markets operated under a narrative of unconstrained expansion regarding generative AI capabilities. Institutional investors rewarded any capital commitment that promis

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