To The Moon

Oil back to $100 Oil prices are back above $100 a barrel, putting the market at a critical crossroads. For me, the most important question is not whether crude can reach $110 or $120, but how long it can stay above $100. Brent recently moved above $100 as Middle East supply risks intensified, while WTI also traded above $100. However, prices have already pulled back from their highs as concerns over supply disruptions eased. That tells me the market is still trying to determine whether this is a temporary shock or the beginning of a longer-lasting energy regime. 🔥 WINNERS: ENERGY STOCKS TAKE THE SPOTLIGHT Energy is the most obvious beneficiary of sustained high oil prices. Producers with strong balance sheets, disciplined capital spending and high free cash flow could see significant earni

This week’s macro focus was the Fed’s September meeting. On September 16, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, its first hike in more than three years, after markets had priced in more than 92% odds. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly hit 5.0266%, widening the 10-year/3-month spread to 89 basis points. Meanwhile, escalating Middle East tensions lifted Brent above $109 a barrel and drove WTI up about 9.6% for the week. Higher yields and geopolitical risk weighed on U.S. equities, with the Dow down 1.56% and the S&P 500 off 0.78%. Commodities diverged: crude gained nearly 10%, while copper and aluminum each fell about 1%. Gold lost 1.4% and silver fell more than 5%, extending precious metals’ losing streak to three weeks. As of the close on September 16, 2026, the week

Disclaimer: The views expressed below are personal opinions only and do not constitute investment advice. They are provided for informational purposes only. Last night, I shared my views in Tiger’s futures livestream following the Federal Reserve’s overnight rate hike. With the decision now behind us, markets have entered a critical phase of testing whether the negative catalyst has been fully priced in. The discussion covered the real drivers behind the rate decision, the outlook for future policy, long-dated U.S. Treasury yields as the key market gauge, and trading views on crypto assets, gold, U.S. equities, crude oil, and foreign exchange. For those who missed the session, the replay is available>>

US semiconductor stocks surged across the board overnight. Chip giant $Intel(INTC)$ jumped 7.7%, adding around $40.7 billion to its market cap in one session. $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ rose 6.4%, $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ climbed 6.2%, while $Micron Technology(MU)$ and $SK hynix(SKHY)$ gained over 4.5%. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$, $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ and

The Bank of Japan has raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%, the highest level in 31 years. The move passed by a 7-2 vote and was broadly expected by markets. The bigger question now is not the 1.25% level itself, but how far the BOJ is prepared to go from here. This matters far beyond Japan. For years, the yen has been one of the world’s cheapest funding currencies. Investors could borrow at very low Japanese rates and move that capital into higher-yielding assets elsewhere — U.S. stocks, bonds, emerging-market currencies and other risk assets. That is the basic logic behind the yen carry trade. As Japanese rates rise, that trade becomes less attractive. If the yen also strengthens, investors face both higher funding costs and FX losses. That is why every BOJ tightening cycle