To The Moon

Two weeks ago, we discussed that WTI crude oil was trading within a range-bound market, making it suitable for selling weekly WTI put options below the prior low of $55 or holding a short WTI futures position combined with selling weekly put options to construct a covered put strategy for this environment. Investors without access to futures or options can consider energy or crude oil ETFs as an alternative.Bearish Crude Reports Trigger a Sharp Selloff: How to Use Options to Trade a Choppy Market？Since then, WTI crude oil has continued to oscillate and weaken, but it has not yet broken below the $55 level, confirming the effectiveness of the previous strategy. Recently, the price volatility has increased, and WTI crude

Recently, gold has been moving in tandem with the broader U.S. equity market, showing roller-coaster style swings that are hard to grasp in terms of timing and direction.This analysis will briefly review the rhythm and patterns of gold price fluctuations from technical and fundamental perspectives, and then discuss how retail traders can use trading tools to capture these profit opportunities.​Based on a combination of current price structure and capital-flow signals, gold is still likely to probe lower repeatedly in the short term, and this round of correction has not yet fully run its course. However, from a longer-term cyclical perspective, the current gold bull market is far from over, and the potential upside remains significant.​4000-dollar level: short-term support may not hold at o

Ahead of OPEC’s monthly market analysis and the IEA’s annual energy outlook this week, WTI steadied after three straight up days, signaling a shift from chasing strength to waiting on new data. Traders are focused on Wednesday night’s OPEC release and the forthcoming IEA outlook.​ $WTI原油主连 2512(CLmain)$ Curve signalsThe WTI term structure has seen the spread between far-month and near-month contracts narrow markedly, a classic sign that inventories are moving from tight toward looser in the physical market. Since the October 20 bottom in WTI, far-month vs near-month spread have kept compressing, implying faltering buy interest in near-month and a supply backdrop shifting from tight to more ample. Throughout the year, worries about a “large sur

Last night, the S&P 500 staged a sharp rebound and completed a daily bottom fractal from a technical perspective, while S&P futures extended modest gains today, nearly piercing the prior fractal’s high; technically, they are just shy of confirming a daily‑level bottoming rebound pattern. Even though the continuing resolution still needs a House vote, markets have been strongly buoyed by the prospect that the government will “reopen.” In this view, the U.S. equity pullback likely found a bottom and may now transition into a new Santa‑rally leg.​The core logic can be summarized as a transmission chain of “liquidity return → rate stabilization → risk‑appetite repair.” During the shutdown, the Treasury absorbed substantial market cash and squeezed system reserves; once the government r

After the Federal Reserve’s October rate cut, dollar market interest rates rose instead of falling, which triggered sharp declines in U.S. Treasuries and equities while the U.S. dollar strengthened significantly. There were two main reasons for the sharp rebound in dollar market rates: first, Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish comments about a December rate cut, which sharply cooled market expectations for a December cut; second, the prolonged U.S. government “shutdown” tightened dollar liquidity on a temporary basis, prompting panic selling of Treasuries to raise cash.​Looking ahead, whether the Fed cuts in December depends on when the U.S. government ends the “shutdown” and whether the “catch‑up” employment data deteriorates. The high‑probability scenario is that dollar liquidity pressures wi

Commodities, often seen as the global economy’s “barometer,” profoundly affect industrial production, trade flows, and investment decisions through their price fluctuations. Since the start of 2025, commodity markets have displayed notable divergence, influenced by shifting global liquidity conditions, changes in supply-demand dynamics, and escalating geopolitical tensions.Recently, gold prices experienced a dramatic reversal. Since mid to late August, driven by the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts, geopolitical disruptions, and sustained central bank gold purchases worldwide, international gold prices briefly surged above $4,000 per ounce. However, as trade tensions eased and profit-taking intensified among investors, gold prices faced downward pressure.Simultaneously, ongoing international tr

Since late September, there has been a striking divergence in the commodity markets: gold has repeatedly hit new highs, while crude oil prices have steadily declined. This contrast reflects underlying differences in market fundamentals and investor sentiment. Notably, NYMEX WTI crude oil futures briefly fell below $57 per barrel, and ICE Brent futures fell below $60 per barrel, even as gold maintained a record-high trajectory. Understanding the reasons behind this “oil-gold” divergence is crucial for market participants.From a supply and demand perspective, global crude oil production is undeniably increasing. OPEC has abandoned previous voluntary production cuts in favor of market share gains, while the United States and other non-OPEC countries also continue to ramp up output. Moreover,

Last week, multiple Federal Reserve officials, including Powell, expressed their views, which were generally dovish. Powell mentioned considering ending the balance sheet reduction, further strengthening market expectations for an interest rate cut in October. This caused a temporary rebound in risk assets. However, later in the week, renewed problems in the US banking system emerged, leading to a decline in market risk appetite and a pullback in US stocks. This weighed on copper prices to some extent, followed by a profit-taking correction in gold.Market ReviewObservations from COMEX and SHFE Copper MarketsCOMEX copper prices fluctuated, seeking direction: dovish comments provided short-term support, but banking risks became a drag. Last week, several Fed officials’ comments leaned dovish

Recently, the US stock market has experienced significant volatility, primarily due to the government shutdown caused by the debt ceiling impasse and the new round of intensified US-China trade tensions initiated by the Trump administration. This led to a sharp decline in global risk assets. The Nasdaq index, dominated by technology stocks, once fell more than 3.5%, while market risk aversion notably increased, with both gold prices and US Treasury yields rising. On October 10, the volatility index (VIX), reflecting market panic, surged to 21.66, indicating a tense market atmosphere.From a valuation perspective, US stocks are generally overvalued, especially Nasdaq tech stocks, whose valuations have exceeded levels before the tariff hike in April this year. For example, the "FAANG" tech gi

In the third quarter of 2025, the overall commodity market exhibited a range-bound volatility with a noticeably higher focus compared to the second quarter. However, internal market segments showed significant divergence. The precious metals sector shone brightly, with gold prices reaching new highs and becoming the market’s “star.” Base metals maintained a generally strong, stable trend, with copper prices holding firm at high levels. Conversely, energy commodities appeared relatively weak, primarily due to an oversupply.Looking toward the fourth quarter, the most critical support factor is the absence of clear signs of economic recession in the United States. The Federal Reserve has initiated what the market calls a “risk-management style rate cut” in monetary policy. This preemptive rat