To The Moon

Hello. The biggest story last night was Nvidia out raising money: it is working with Blackstone, BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, KKR and others on a consortium to fund AI infrastructure, for as much as US$500 billion, to be spent on AI chips, power generation and data centres. $英伟达(NVDA)$ fell 2.86 per cent on the news. It didn't fall because demand is short. It fell because people have started to wonder whether Nvidia is creating that demand itself: it has signed agreements worth hundreds of billions of dollars with participants across the AI ecosystem, lifting overall demand and valuations, while those counterparties themselves depend on the AI boom staying alive. That structure has a name. Circular financing. Jensen Huang answered on

Many existing shareholders and insiders have a much lower cost basis, so they may be willing to sell if the price moves significantly higher. Riding the trend and buy back at a lower price later. 

Hello. Friday's payrolls report was genuinely bad: July payrolls fell by 23,000, the May and June gains were revised down by a combined 103,000, and hourly earnings rose just 3.2 per cent year on year. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 0.62 per cent to a record close. $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ rose 1.30 per cent and $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ 0.28 per cent. Data that bad turned out to be good news, because the market immediately cut the odds of a September rate rise to about 44 per cent. Loosen the rate outlook and valuations get room to breathe: $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ ros

Tesla has gone nowhere for almost 5yrs. It is a emotional ride with the ups and downs. investors often lose money due to greed and fear. If you're able to overcome your emotions you will do very well in the long term. Give yourself time for robotaxi, AI, robotics and energy storage to play out. Tesla isn't just a automotive company. They're building something which could revolutionise many things which we can't see in the future. I stay invested and should price goes insanely silly again I will scoop up some shares again. 😉

An A-share listed retail group with multiple business segments, including supermarkets, bakeries, snack stores, and discount stores, and a nationwide store network, recently partnered with YXT.com Group Holding Limited ( $YXT.COM GROUP HOLDING LIMITED(YXT)$ ) to launch a job capability system reconstruction project through YXT’s intelligent talent development platform. With AI capabilities, YXT is helping the company unify its capability language, improve job models, and establish a group-wide talent standards system, laying a foundation for organizational intelligence. As AI moves deeper into enterprise operations, the key to enterprise intelligence is no longer simply connecting to a large language model. It is about enabling AI to truly understa

Tesla sits at the intersection of two very different valuation stories. If you believe the company will become a leader in autonomous driving, Optimus robots and AI infrastructure, today's weakness could look like a temporary mispricing. Those businesses, if they scale, would justify a valuation well beyond that of a traditional carmaker. The bearish case is that those future opportunities remain largely unproven, while the current business faces softer EV demand, pricing pressure, compressed margins and heavy capital spending that weighs on free cash flow. If the core automotive business continues to weaken faster than new businesses mature, the stock could remain under pressure. At current levels, Tesla looks more like a high-risk, long-duration growth investment than a conventional valu

Alright we've got a good one here before we head in to a new week!! Teslas caused some discussion hey!? Let's break it down. ————————————————— A 14.5% fall in Tesla is not an ordinary $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$  earnings reaction. It is the market questioning whether Tesla’s AI, Robotaxi and robotics future can arrive quickly enough to justify the enormous spending happening today. The strange part is that Tesla’s operating figures were not all bad. Tesla produced 451,758 vehicles, delivered 480,126 vehicles and deployed 13.5 GWh of energy-storage products during Q2. Deliveries were also well above the company-compiled analyst consensus of approximately 406,000 vehicles. So why did investors react so harshly? Because Tesla is no longer being v

Buy when there's blood on the streets

I bought the dip instead of reducing my exposure. One weak session doesn't change my long-term thesis. To me, this was more of a valuation reset than a collapse in AI demand. I still believe enterprise AI and hyperscaler spending have plenty of room to grow. Corrections like this can also create opportunities to accumulate quality companies at better prices. I'm becoming more selective, focusing on semiconductor & AI infrastructure companies with strong demand, visible orders, and improving cash flow. I continue to DCA into my highest-conviction positions instead of reacting to short-term volatility. Risk management remains important, so I'm keeping my position sizes under control. Over the next few months, I'll watch whether higher AI capex translates into stronger revenue and free c

$TSLA 20260724 305.0 PUT$ volatility is my friend 

My interpretation of the latest market movement is that the market has shifted from rewarding “good” results to demanding “exceptional” results with a convincing forward outlook. Tesla’s latest Q2 earnings are a good example of this change. Here’s how I see the current environment: 1. The market is now forward-looking, not backward-looking The Q2 numbers describe what happened over the last three months. However, institutional investors are pricing what earnings will look like over the next 12–24 months. Tesla delivered strong revenue growth, but investors focused on: * Earnings per share missing expectations. * Gross margin compression. * Negative free cash flow due to massive capital expenditure. * Management reaffirming even higher spending on AI, Robotaxi, Optimus and semiconductor man

🌟🌟🌟I choose C: Adding Energy, Defense and Gold exposure.  Why? With Brent Crude crossing the USD 100 threshold, adding exposure to this energy sector provides a natural portfolio hedge against spiking oil prices.  My Top Pick is is $Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLE)$ because it directly monetises the macro threat: USD 100 Brent Crude Oil.  It also gives me direct exposure to energy giants like $Exxon Mobil(XOM)$ & $Chevron(CVX)$ turning that macro pain into pure portfolio alpha. For Gold exposure I would choose $Gold Trust Ishares(IAU)$ as it offers a necessary volatility buffer, as tech stocks are

I see this as more than a routine risk reset, but not yet a confirmed trend reversal. The 14.5% plunge reflects the market suddenly demanding evidence that Tesla’s AI valuation can eventually translate into cash flows. The numbers justify the concern. Q2 revenue reached a record $28.2B and deliveries rose strongly, but operating margin collapsed to 1.4%, versus the Street’s pre-report expectation of roughly 5.4%. Free cash flow was -$1.1B, largely because capex more than doubled sequentially. Tesla expects over $25B of capex in 2026, with spending continuing to rise as Robotaxi, Optimus, AI compute and manufacturing capacity expand.  The crucial distinction is that Tesla is not suffering from collapsing demand alone. It is deliberately sacrificing current profitability to finance busi

The biggest troubling of Tesla isn't the short-term free cash flow (FCF) turning negative—the market actually expects to burn $3.25 billion, but actually only $10.9 billion is a "handsome number"; the real chronic poisoning is that the gross margin of the car business has dropped to 16.3%, closer to the level of traditional car manufacturers BYD and Toyota. 

The long-term opportunity remains large, but the market is becoming less patient with businesses that require heavy investment before generating measurable revenue. $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ fell 7.13% despite strong headline results. Google Cloud revenue grew 82%, but Alphabet also increased its annual capex outlook to as much as $205 billion and reported negative quarterly free cash flow of $5.9 billion.

$Tesla(TSLA)$ fell 14.53% after investors focused on shrinking profitability and rising cash consumption. Tesla’s second-quarter operating margin dropped to 1.4%, while free cash flow turned negative. Capital spending on robotaxis, Optimus, AI infrastructure, batteries and new manufacturing projects continued to climb. The long-term opportunity remains large, but the market is becoming less patient with businesses that require heavy investment before generating measurable revenue.

It really is a damned if you do, damned if you don't. Google had to join the field and come up with their own AI model, hoping to outlast competition. Was it really necessary though? Apple fumbled the AI chase, then made a seemingly wise decision to onboard functionalities from external companies and they do not seem to be suffering too much. It likely is a case hubris, everyone wants a slice of the AI bubble's money and once they put money in, they can only keep digging themselves deeper into the hole.

Everyone knew it was a gamble, that is why there is an AI bubble, a big enough crash will come along eventually. The thing is "AI" as we know it require constant monetary input, the newest chips, new training, maintenance to avoid model drift, constant improvements to keep up with competition... CapEx will not be a problem that get solves anytime soon The AI players are hoping that someone folds and they end up being the last one at the table, but even then, the number does not bode well because the revenue will still not keep up with the expenditure.

Were we expecting anything else? Elon Musk treats it like a game where he moves money from one pocket to another, what happens when the value starts sliding? Have another of his company buy an asset at an overinflated value without really paying anyone anything (moving Twitter into Spacex by acquiring his own Xai conpany). Side tracking here, but some numbers foe reference: 1. Oct 2022, acquire Twitter for 44bn 2. Mar 2025, acquire it into Xai and combines with the AI side quests at a total value of 113bn 3. Finally Spacex acquires Xai in Feb 2026 for 250bn. (Wonderful stuff right here, I wish I had so much money that I could claim my bag of junk is worth billions of dollars, and double in value every 2 years) Worth noting, Tesla is trying to pad their numbers by claiming profit from

Last night’s selloff felt like more than a normal pullback. The Nasdaq fell 2.15%, while the VIX jumped more than 12% to 18.7. $Tesla(TSLA)$ plunged 14.53%, and $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ dropped 7.13%. By several market estimates, the Magnificent Seven lost close to $800 billion in market value in a single session. At the same time, Brent crude moved above $100 per barrel and Treasury yields climbed. Two pressures hit growth stocks together: AI return concerns and renewed inflation risk. A week ago, the market was still rewarding companies for spending more aggressively on AI. Now investors are asking a harder question: When will all that spending turn into profit and free cash flow? 1. The capex scare finally a

Hello. The biggest story last night was Nvidia out raising money: it is working with Blackstone, BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, KKR and others on a consortium to fund AI infrastructure, for as much as US$500 billion, to be spent on AI chips, power generation and data centres. $英伟达(NVDA)$ fell 2.86 per cent on the news. It didn't fall because demand is short. It fell because people have started to wonder whether Nvidia is creating that demand itself: it has signed agreements worth hundreds of billions of dollars with participants across the AI ecosystem, lifting overall demand and valuations, while those counterparties themselves depend on the AI boom staying alive. That structure has a name. Circular financing. Jensen Huang answered on

Hello. Friday's payrolls report was genuinely bad: July payrolls fell by 23,000, the May and June gains were revised down by a combined 103,000, and hourly earnings rose just 3.2 per cent year on year. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 0.62 per cent to a record close. $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ rose 1.30 per cent and $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ 0.28 per cent. Data that bad turned out to be good news, because the market immediately cut the odds of a September rate rise to about 44 per cent. Loosen the rate outlook and valuations get room to breathe: $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ ros

An A-share listed retail group with multiple business segments, including supermarkets, bakeries, snack stores, and discount stores, and a nationwide store network, recently partnered with YXT.com Group Holding Limited ( $YXT.COM GROUP HOLDING LIMITED(YXT)$ ) to launch a job capability system reconstruction project through YXT’s intelligent talent development platform. With AI capabilities, YXT is helping the company unify its capability language, improve job models, and establish a group-wide talent standards system, laying a foundation for organizational intelligence. As AI moves deeper into enterprise operations, the key to enterprise intelligence is no longer simply connecting to a large language model. It is about enabling AI to truly understa

Alphabet, Tesla and IBM reported earnings on the same night—and together they offered one of the clearest snapshots yet of where the AI spending cycle stands. Google showed that AI infrastructure can already drive explosive cloud growth. Tesla showed how quickly AI, robotaxi and robotics investment can consume cash before those businesses generate meaningful revenue. IBM showed another side of the cycle: corporate customers are prioritizing scarce servers, memory and storage, while some traditional IT projects are being delayed. The market is moving past a simple question—“Who is investing in AI?”—and focusing on something harder: Who can turn AI spending into revenue, margins and free cash flow? Google: AI demand is turning into cloud revenue Alphabet delivered the strongest operating gro

Alright we've got a good one here before we head in to a new week!! Teslas caused some discussion hey!? Let's break it down. ————————————————— A 14.5% fall in Tesla is not an ordinary $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$  earnings reaction. It is the market questioning whether Tesla’s AI, Robotaxi and robotics future can arrive quickly enough to justify the enormous spending happening today. The strange part is that Tesla’s operating figures were not all bad. Tesla produced 451,758 vehicles, delivered 480,126 vehicles and deployed 13.5 GWh of energy-storage products during Q2. Deliveries were also well above the company-compiled analyst consensus of approximately 406,000 vehicles. So why did investors react so harshly? Because Tesla is no longer being v

Last night’s selloff felt like more than a normal pullback. The Nasdaq fell 2.15%, while the VIX jumped more than 12% to 18.7. $Tesla(TSLA)$ plunged 14.53%, and $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ dropped 7.13%. By several market estimates, the Magnificent Seven lost close to $800 billion in market value in a single session. At the same time, Brent crude moved above $100 per barrel and Treasury yields climbed. Two pressures hit growth stocks together: AI return concerns and renewed inflation risk. A week ago, the market was still rewarding companies for spending more aggressively on AI. Now investors are asking a harder question: When will all that spending turn into profit and free cash flow? 1. The capex scare finally a

Stop thinking about the 480,126 deliveries. The market has had three weeks to process that number. TSLA is still trading below its pre-delivery report levels at $376 to $379. That one fact tells you everything about what tonight's print actually needs to deliver: not more evidence that Tesla can sell cars, but evidence that selling 480,000 cars at $25 billion in capex does not permanently destroy the margin structure that justifies trading at 175 to 180 times forward earnings. Tonight's call is entirely about three numbers. Automotive gross margin. Free cash flow. Cybercab production rate. The first two tell you whether the car business is being sacrificed to fund the future. The third tells you whether the future is arriving on any recognisable timeline. What the Estimates Actually Say Th

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ ’s Q2 2026 earnings provided a stark visual of the new reality facing Big Tech: AI ambition requires massive, front-loaded capital expenditure (CapEx). Tesla signaled a full-year CapEx budget exceeding $25 billion, which pushed quarterly Free Cash Flow (FCF) into negative territory as compute infrastructure, FSD training, and Optimus robotics scaling ate into cash reserves. This dynamic extends far beyond Tesla—it is the prevailing operational model across mega-cap tech. 1. Will high AI spending burn rate remain the norm? Yes. High CapEx intensity is non-negotiable for any company competing at the frontier of AI. The industry is in the middle of a multi-trillion-dollar infrastructure overhaul that spans data center constructio

Key Takeaways Revenue rose 26% YoY to US$28.24B. Deliveries hit 480,126 units, up 25% YoY. Automotive gross margin ex-credits fell to 16.3%. Operating margin dropped to 1.4%. CapEx reached US$5.79B, causing negative FCF of US$1.09B. 2026 CapEx will exceed US$25B. FSD paid users reached 1.48M. Robotaxi passed 380,000 unsupervised miles with no notable incidents. SpaceX gains added about US$1B to Tesla’s net income. TSLA fell around 4% after hours as investors focused on margins and cash flow. Tesla reported strong Q2 2026 revenue and record deliveries, but profit quality was much weaker. Revenue reached US$28.24B, up 26% YoY and above market estimates. Adjusted EPS came in at US$0.33, below the expected US$0.49. The result was clear: Tesla sold more cars, but earned less from each dollar of

Heading into the print with shares trading around $380, the setup is unusual: $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ has already delivered the good news on volume. Earlier this month, Tesla reported record Q2 deliveries of 480,126 units (+25% YoY), crushing consensus estimates of ~406,000. Production came in at 451,758 units, meaning deliveries exceeded production for the first time in several quarters, drawing down inventory. However, because those deliveries were driven by aggressive promotional zero-APR financing, discounts, and regional incentives, the core debate has shifted entirely from volume to margin quality. Wall Street Consensus Expectations Executive Summary: Tesla (TSLA) Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings Tesla reported its Q1 2026 financial results on April 22,

My interpretation of the latest market movement is that the market has shifted from rewarding “good” results to demanding “exceptional” results with a convincing forward outlook. Tesla’s latest Q2 earnings are a good example of this change. Here’s how I see the current environment: 1. The market is now forward-looking, not backward-looking The Q2 numbers describe what happened over the last three months. However, institutional investors are pricing what earnings will look like over the next 12–24 months. Tesla delivered strong revenue growth, but investors focused on: * Earnings per share missing expectations. * Gross margin compression. * Negative free cash flow due to massive capital expenditure. * Management reaffirming even higher spending on AI, Robotaxi, Optimus and semiconductor man

Were we expecting anything else? Elon Musk treats it like a game where he moves money from one pocket to another, what happens when the value starts sliding? Have another of his company buy an asset at an overinflated value without really paying anyone anything (moving Twitter into Spacex by acquiring his own Xai conpany). Side tracking here, but some numbers foe reference: 1. Oct 2022, acquire Twitter for 44bn 2. Mar 2025, acquire it into Xai and combines with the AI side quests at a total value of 113bn 3. Finally Spacex acquires Xai in Feb 2026 for 250bn. (Wonderful stuff right here, I wish I had so much money that I could claim my bag of junk is worth billions of dollars, and double in value every 2 years) Worth noting, Tesla is trying to pad their numbers by claiming profit from

The sudden drop below the $400 mark is a classic display of $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$’s signature volatility. Interestingly, the 7.5% sell-off didn’t actually stem from "bad" news; Tesla just delivered a massive Q2 beat (480,126 vehicles vs. the ~406,000 expected). The plunge is a textbook "sell-the-news" reaction after the stock rallied 12% leading up to the announcement, coupled with sudden hype and uncertainty surrounding a potential SpaceX merger. Buying the Dip: Key Signals to Watch Whether this is a "good" time to buy depends entirely on your investment horizon. Tesla is currently priced less like a car company and more like a "physical AI" play (robotaxis, Dojo, humanoid robotics). If you are looking to buy the dip, do not just blindly jump in.

Many existing shareholders and insiders have a much lower cost basis, so they may be willing to sell if the price moves significantly higher. Riding the trend and buy back at a lower price later. 

Tesla's Q2 report is likely to be judged much less on whether it beats EPS or revenue and much more on the quality of those earnings. The key areas I would watch are: Automotive gross margin: This is probably the most important metric. Deliveries have already surprised to the upside, so investors now want to know whether Tesla had to sacrifice profitability through discounts and incentives. A stable or improving margin would be a strong positive.  Free cash flow and capital expenditure: Tesla is investing aggressively in AI infrastructure, Robotaxi, Optimus and manufacturing. Higher spending is acceptable if management clearly demonstrates progress, but weak cash generation without convincing milestones could disappoint.  Energy storage: Energy continues to become a larger contri

The uncomfortable framing first: the 7.5% drop is not a market error. It is the correct read of a company that just delivered its best quarter ever and then reminded investors that 93% of its current market cap is priced on businesses that still lose money. Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles in Q2 2026, crushing Wall Street consensus of 406,024 by nearly 18%. Up 25% year over year. Up 34% from Q1. Its strongest second quarter ever and its first year-over-year delivery growth after two consecutive years of declines. Energy storage deployments hit 13.5 GWh against an estimate of 13.3. European markets grew 108% year over year. The car business is recovering. The market does not care about the car business. That is the entire story. The Two-Company Problem Apply a traditional auto sector multip

I see this as more than a routine risk reset, but not yet a confirmed trend reversal. The 14.5% plunge reflects the market suddenly demanding evidence that Tesla’s AI valuation can eventually translate into cash flows. The numbers justify the concern. Q2 revenue reached a record $28.2B and deliveries rose strongly, but operating margin collapsed to 1.4%, versus the Street’s pre-report expectation of roughly 5.4%. Free cash flow was -$1.1B, largely because capex more than doubled sequentially. Tesla expects over $25B of capex in 2026, with spending continuing to rise as Robotaxi, Optimus, AI compute and manufacturing capacity expand.  The crucial distinction is that Tesla is not suffering from collapsing demand alone. It is deliberately sacrificing current profitability to finance busi

🚖 Tesla Reclaims $400: Is the Robotaxi Era Finally Here? Tesla has once again captured Wall Street’s attention, climbing back above the psychologically important $400 level following the launch of its Robotaxi service in Miami. For years, Elon Musk has promised that autonomous driving would become Tesla’s biggest value driver. Investors have heard the story before—but this time feels different because there is finally a real-world rollout. ⸻ 📈 What Happened? Tesla shares rallied after news that its Robotaxi service officially began operating in Miami. Rather than another software update or ambitious announcement, this represents one of Tesla’s first large-scale commercial deployments of autonomous ride-hailing technology. Markets reacted positively because investors see Robotaxi as a poten

Tesla ( $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ ) is once again back in the hot seat, pulling back 4.02% to close at $402.94 after a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. This drop puts the critical $400 psychological level under immediate pressure, completely unwinding the strong recovery from the previous session. Crucially for traders, this retreat was driven by broad macro tech weakness rather than stock-specific bad news. While the broader market pulled Tesla down, a massive fundamental catalyst is keeping the bulls interested: fresh Wall Street upgrades fueled by Tesla-SpaceX merger speculation. With the stock hovering on a razor's edge, will the $400 support shelf hold, or are we looking at a deeper gap fill? Let’s break down the technical levels and catalyst b

Tesla sits at the intersection of two very different valuation stories. If you believe the company will become a leader in autonomous driving, Optimus robots and AI infrastructure, today's weakness could look like a temporary mispricing. Those businesses, if they scale, would justify a valuation well beyond that of a traditional carmaker. The bearish case is that those future opportunities remain largely unproven, while the current business faces softer EV demand, pricing pressure, compressed margins and heavy capital spending that weighs on free cash flow. If the core automotive business continues to weaken faster than new businesses mature, the stock could remain under pressure. At current levels, Tesla looks more like a high-risk, long-duration growth investment than a conventional valu