Oil's Rebound Makes the July Fed the Hardest to Call: How to Play Defense and Counter With Options
Next week brings the hardest-to-call FOMC meeting in a long while. The reason: the recent sharp rebound in oil, compounded by events such as a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and restrictions on Red Sea shipping, has left the market with little confidence in how inflation expectations will evolve. If inflation persists, expectations for a Fed rate hike will heat up sharply — and could even become reality as early as the July meeting. Yet Trump remains firmly committed to rate cuts: a hike could trigger a sizable equity correction ahead of the midterm elections and, in turn, hurt his party at the polls. For this week's meeting, therefore, I lean toward the Fed standing pat — but with more hawkish language, nudging the market to give up its easing bets and get its “vaccination” in
10 Market Calls for the Rest of 2026. Which Ones Will Happen?
As we head into the final months of 2026, several bold predictions are emerging across equities, commodities, and crypto. Whether they play out or not, they highlight where investors are looking for leadership in the next phase of the market. Here's the outlook: 📈 The broader market finishes the year more than 10% higher. 🥇 Gold and silver rally another 30%. 🔐 Cybersecurity becomes the best-performing segment within technology. 🚁 Drones emerge as the market's hottest new investment theme. 💬 $Reddit(RDDT)$ climbs above $200. ⭕ $Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ doubles to over $120. 💊 Continued enthusiasm around peptides pushes $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ above
$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ Super Micro Computer's preliminary results showed gross margins of 15%-17%, nearly double guidance, suggesting a structural shift toward higher-value AI infrastructure solutions. New orders exceeded $60 billion, indicating demand remains exceptionally strong despite revenue being constrained by deployment timing and customer readiness. Shares trade at only 11x forward non-GAAP EPS, 0.55x price-to-sales, and a 0.38 forward PEG, well below major infrastructure peers. The August earnings report will determine whether software, liquid cooling, and DCBBS can sustain double-digit margins and justify a higher valuation.
$RH PetroGas(T13.SI)$ $ 0.3 Target Price RH PetroGas's near-to-medium-term growth catalysts are centered on the success of its 2026 exploration drilling campaign in Indonesia, primarily the NW Klagagi-1 (NWK-1) well currently being drilled and the upcoming Birawa-1 well . A successful discovery could unlock significant value, while the company's robust balance sheet (no debt and US$65.4M in cash) provides the financial stability to fund this organic growth without dilution. --Key Growth Catalysts & Supporting Data-- 1. Drilling Campaign as Primary Growth Driver: The most immediate and high-impact catalyst is the two-well exploration program for YR-2026. NW Klagagi-1 (NWK-1) Well: This well was spu
(Part 1 of 5) - Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 27Jul2026)
Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 27Jul2026) Consumption and Consumer Sentiment June’s Durable Goods orders are forecast to rise by 1.6%, a notable improvement from the previous reading of -4.5%. This rebound is a positive indicator for consumption and suggests stronger demand momentum. The CB Consumer Confidence reading for July is forecast at 92.1. This points to weaker consumer confidence and lower market optimism, which may influence future consumption patterns. Energy Demand Indicator Crude oil inventories remain an important reference point for assessing producer expectations and future consumption. If inventories come in above expectations, it may suggest stronger supply conditions; if they fall below expectations, it could point to firmer demand.
(Part 2 of 5) - Earnings Calendar (27Jul2026) > UPS for you?
Earnings Calendar (27Jul2026) This week features several major earnings releases, including Baker Hughes, PayPal, Coca-Cola, Boeing, UPS, Visa, Apple, Amazon, ExxonMobil, Moderna, and Chevron. We begin with UPS. Here is how UPS earnings serve as an economic reference (Google): UPS is a reliable economic bellwether because its logistics network handles about 6% of U.S. GDP and 3% of global GDP. By moving raw materials, finished goods, and e-commerce orders, its earnings offer a timely snapshot of broad economic health.Rising package volumes and express shipping suggest stronger business investment, retail activity, and consumer confidence. Falling volumes or a shift to cheaper delivery options can signal tighter spending, inventory slowdowns, and economic. UPS Valuation and M
(Part 3 of 5) - Market Outlook of S&P500 (27Jul2026)
Market Outlook of S&P500 (27Jul2026) Technical Analysis Overview MACD Indicator The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 just completed a crossover and is on a downtrend. Moving Averages Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows that the last candlestick has been above the 200-day (MA200) moving average but below the 50-day (MA50) moving average. This pattern indicates a bullish shift in both the long term and bearish in the short term. Notably, both the MA50 and MA200 lines have continued to trend upward, indicating a bullish outlook in both the short and long term. We had some issues with the charts from both Yahoo Finance and Investing. Pardon missing the other indicators like Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) and the Exponential
(Part 4 of 5) news from the last week (27July2026)
News and my thoughts from the past week (27Jul2026) META $12 billion bond offer comes in at 7.6% on “weak demand”. So much pain coming to Oracle. On Monday, whose bonds are rapidly selling off at 7.9% to 8.1% while Meta was around 6.7%. - X user Roger Will this save Oracle? Are people leaving a sinking ship in BlackRock? JUST IN: OpenAI caught one of its AI agents leaving instructions for future versions to escape internal controls. - X user Watcher Guru Nike is planning to cut off thousands of online distributors in China beginning in January as the sneaker giant looks to clean up what’s become a messy digital marketplace and get the region back to growth, the company said Tuesday. Starting next year, Nike’s online footprint will shift primarily to the retailer’s official website and app,
Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 27Jul2026) Consumption and Consumer Sentiment June’s Durable Goods orders are forecast to rise by 1.6%, a notable improvement from the previous reading of -4.5%. This rebound is a positive indicator for consumption and suggests stronger demand momentum. The CB Consumer Confidence reading for July is forecast at 92.1. This points to weaker consumer confidence and lower market optimism, which may influence future consumption patterns. Energy Demand Indicator Crude oil inventories remain an important reference point for assessing producer expectations and future consumption. If inventories come in above expectations, it may suggest stronger supply conditions; if they fall below expectations, it could point to firmer demand. Federal Reserve Interest
My Investing Muse (27Jul2026) Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies (by Gemini & Grok) Key corporate and market stress signals (week of ~July 20, 2026): Major Layoffs British American Tobacco: ~9,000 roles (~20% of non-US workforce). Microsoft: ~4,800 global positions. Telefónica Germany: up to 1,100 roles (~16%). Verizon: ~3,000 affected (mostly store transfers + corporate cuts). Samsung: 800+ U.S. roles affected (many relocation offers). Entain: 500 positions. Closures/Restructuring Metro (Singapore): exiting Paragon and Causeway Point stores. Volkswagen: cutting model lines by up to 50% and reviewing European plants. Bankruptcies U.S. larger corporates: S&P reports 372 filings YTD—a 16-year high, led by industrial, consumer, and healthcare. Small businesses: Subchapter V filings u
Visa Fiscal Q3 2026 Earnings Preview: Resilient Volumes, High-Margin Expansion, and Tactical Option Setups
$Visa(V)$ reports its fiscal Q3 2026 earnings on Tuesday, July 28, 2026, after market close. Here is a breakdown of the key metrics to watch, Wall Street consensus, and potential short-term options trading setups. Wall Street Estimates & Key Metrics Visa management previously guided for low-double-digit net revenue growth and low-teen operating expense growth. Specific Metrics Investors Will Scrutinize: Cross-Border Spend: High-margin international travel volume is Visa's primary earnings engine. Investors will check if international consumer spend held up amidst global macro noise or summer travel tailwinds (e.g., European/FIFA events). Value-Added Services (VAS): Non-transactional services (cybersecurity, fraud prevention, open banking, tokeniz
SoFi Q2 2026 Earnings Preview: Guidance and Volatility at a Critical Crossroads
$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ is scheduled to report its Q2 2026 earnings on Wednesday, July 29, 2026, before the market opens. Trading near $17.02 (down ~36% YTD and hovering near its 52-week low of $14.92), the stock is sitting at a critical crossroads heading into the report. Consensus Expectations (Q2 2026) Adjusted Net Revenue: $1.11B – $1.12B (~30% YoY growth) Adjusted EPS: $0.11 Net Interest Income: Projected at ~$714M (+38% YoY) Implied Volatility: Options markets are currently pricing in an ~8.7% move in either direction following the announcement. SoFi reported its Q1 2026 earnings on April 29, 2026. Despite posting record-breaking growth across top-line metrics and member adoption, the market reacted with sharp selling pressure — sendi
The Q2 2026 earnings season has revealed a divergence between the broader market and the highly scrutinized mega-cap technology space, while Wall Street banks and key defensive sectors like healthcare have delivered strong results. In the tech sector, sharp post-earnings stock declines for mega-caps like $Alphabet(GOOG)$$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ were generally not caused by poor revenue or core business growth. Instead, a clear pattern of “AI cash burn anxiety” emerged. Both Alphabet and Tesla handily beat top-line expectations, with Google Cloud revenues surging and Tesla delivering solid vehicle metrics. However, Alphabet’s massive infrastructure spending pushed its quarterly free cash flow into a negative
Beginner’s Guide to the iShares Gold Trust (IAU) ETF – Part 1: Understanding Gold Investing
🟡 Beginner’s Guide to the iShares Gold Trust (IAU) ETF – Part 1: Understanding Gold Investing Gold has been valued for thousands of years. It has been used as money, jewelry, and a store of wealth during uncertain times. Today, investors no longer need to buy heavy gold bars or store gold coins in a safe. Instead, they can invest in gold through an Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) such as the iShares Gold Trust (IAU). If you are completely new to investing, this guide will explain everything in simple English. By the end of Part 1, you will understand what IAU is, why investors buy it, and how it fits into an investment portfolio. ⸻ 🌟 What Is an ETF? ETF stands for Exchange Traded Fund. Think of an ETF as a basket of investments that trades on the stock exchange just like an ordinary stock. When
Tesla’s 14.5% Plunge: Buying Opportunity—or a Warning That the AI Dream Is Getting Too Expensive? 🚗🤖
Alright we've got a good one here before we head in to a new week!! Teslas caused some discussion hey!? Let's break it down. ————————————————— A 14.5% fall in Tesla is not an ordinary $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ earnings reaction. It is the market questioning whether Tesla’s AI, Robotaxi and robotics future can arrive quickly enough to justify the enormous spending happening today. The strange part is that Tesla’s operating figures were not all bad. Tesla produced 451,758 vehicles, delivered 480,126 vehicles and deployed 13.5 GWh of energy-storage products during Q2. Deliveries were also well above the company-compiled analyst consensus of approximately 406,000 vehicles. So why did investors react so harshly? Because Tesla is no longer being v
For the week ending 24 Jul 2026, there were only a few economic reports to reference. They hardly made a dent in the US market because there were stronger factors dampening, enabling US market to finish the week lower. Index Performance. US market - 3 composite indexes past week performances DJIA. For the week, it fell by -0.4% to close at 51,947.25, despite a late rebound on Fri, 24 Jul 2026. S&P 500. Slipped by -1.03% over the 5 days to 7,411.98, marking its 2nd consecutive weekly decline. Nasdaq. Down by -2.90% for the week, closing at 24,975.82 due to heavy selling in mega-cap tech and the "Magnificent 7". Key Catalysts. Broadly, there were 4 key factors that caused the wild swings in US market, especially the tech index. Geopolitical & Energy Shocks: Brent crude surged past $1