I would wait for Warsh’s Jackson Hole tone before rotating aggressively back into tech. The Treasury intervention is meaningful, but I would not interpret it as a durable reversal in long-term yields. The 30-year yield had reached about 5.34%, its highest since 2007, before Treasury announced it would at least double long-duration buybacks to $4bn per operation. The bigger issue is the Fed. July's minutes were more hawkish than the headline "hold" suggests: three officials wanted a 25bp hike, several saw inflation as broad-based, and there was no meaningful discussion supporting a cut. Markets are even assigning better-than-even odds to a hike by October or December. So my positioning would be: Tech: cautiously add, not chase. Lower yields provide exactly the relief that high-d
I would buy SK Hynix on weakness, rather than step away from memory. My preference is SK Hynix > Samsung > avoiding the sector. The key distinction is that SK Hynix's payout is not simply management saying, "we have run out of attractive investments". It is explicitly buying and cancelling 40 trillion won of shares, while raising its target to return more than 50% of 2025-27 cumulative FCF. That is a direct reduction in share count and a strong signal management believes the stock is undervalued. Samsung is potentially even more interesting as a value + dividend play, but the >100 trillion won figure remains a media report awaiting board approval. The reported plan would allocate 50% of FCF to shareholders, with dividends expected to dominate. I don't see the payouts a
I have been watching the Treasury market closely these past few weeks, and the latest move feels like a quiet admission that things are getting uncomfortable at the long end of the curve. Treasury just doubled the size of its liquidity-support buybacks in the 10-to-20-year and 20-to-30-year sectors to at least $4 billion per operation. This comes right after the 30-year yield pushed toward levels we haven’t seen in nearly two decades and the 10-year settled in the mid-4.6% range. On paper, these buybacks are still framed as liquidity tools helping dealers offload older, less-traded bonds. In practice, the timing and the sudden upsizing tell a different story. When yields keep rising even on the day of a scheduled buyback, and Treasury responds by expanding the program off-calendar, it look
Why a Canada Tariff Deal Would Help Ford Without Solving Its Margin Problem
$Ford(F)$ shares rose as the United States and Canada moved closer to reducing tariffs on vehicles, steel and aluminium. A final agreement would ease an important cost and supply-chain risk, but Ford’s long-term profitability still depends on product mix, warranty costs and electric-vehicle economics rather than trade relief alone. Reuters reported on August 19 that negotiators were discussing cutting the headline US tariff on Canadian-built cars and trucks from 25% to 15%, before deductions for US-made content. Proposed steel and aluminium tariffs could fall from 50% to 25% within a quota, reportedly around four million metric tons annually. However, no final agreement had been signed, and tariffs on approximately $20 billion of Canadian goods were
Capital Allocation Wars: How SK Hynix and Samsung’s Historic Shareholder Returns Will Re-Shape Memory Semiconductor Valuations into Q3
1. Q3 Performance Drivers: CapEx Discipline vs. Cash Generation The memory market moving into Q3 is defined by a shift from pure volume expansion to high-margin product mix, specifically driven by High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and enterprise SSDs (eSSDs). Capital Discipline & Pricing Power Historically, memory upturns prompted aggressive capital expenditures (CapEx) into new wafer capacity, inevitably leading to oversupply. The current commitment by both mega-cap memory makers to direct at least 50% of Free Cash Flow back to shareholders fundamentally caps unconstrained supply expansion: Controlled Bit Growth: By locking half of FCF into buybacks and dividends, both firms limit the capital available for greenfield fab building, keeping market bit growth tight through Q3. Pricing Leverage
The AI boom has turned High-bandwidth memory (HBM) into a key bottleneck for chipmakers. Thanks to the ‘bottleneck’, the top 3 HBM suppliers’ stock prices have soared to new highs, since April 2026. (see below) 01 Apr 2026 to 18 Aug 2026 $Micron Technology(MU)$ has risen by about +155.75%. SK Hynix (Korea) have risen by +67.22%. Samsung (Korea) have risen by +30.5%. Given above backdrop, the latest twist in $NVIDIA(NVDA)$’s roadmap makes it especially important for HBM suppliers. The AI buildout (set in motion) is creating an unusual problem for semiconductor investors - demand is arriving faster than the supply chain can deliver the most advanced components. Booming demand for AI chips is creating a tricky
Clueless? Duan Yongping got caught buying Moderna at the peak.
Duan Yongping, the legendary investor widely known as "Da Dao Wu Xing Wo You Xing" on Investment Platform, has reportedly suffered a major loss on $Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$, the recent star of U.S. biotech stocks. He first built a position in MRNA back in 2021, when the stock was trading near its peak, and even posted on Investment Platform about his interest in the name. He added to his position multiple times afterward, but eventually liquidated his entire holding at $28.5 per share. Based on rough estimates, Duan lost nearly $24 million on this investment, with a staggering -60% return. Even a top-tier investor can stumble outside his circle of competence. Does his recent avoidance of tech stocks suggest a limited grasp of the secto
HIMS, BULL, META, TLT& XLV Welcome Great Upward Momentum
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some technical analysis with you! 1 $Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLV)$ soaring to new all-time highs after a historic day on the mission to cure cancer 2 Long-term Treasury prices are currently trading at 22-year lows... Yes, 22-year lows. Persistent inflation, ballooning government debt, and uncertainty around the Fed have investors demanding much higher yields to hold long-term debt. $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ 3 Pressure building at a level $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ simply refuses to give up 🌡️ 4 Another mean Stage 2 breakout after a strong Q2 earnings
TRADE PLAN for Thursday 📈 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ another consolidation day today near 7700. SPX needs to get back above 7745 to start looking at calls. if SPX starts to fail, we can see 7620 again. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ is stuck under 722, once it reclaims this level it can pop back up to 726-730. If 712 fails it can drop to 707. $Bitcoin(BTC.USD.CC)$ finally starting to show some signs of life after ten months of consolidation. IF BTC can reclaim 72k it can move to 80k again. $Strategy(MSTR)$ to 115-120 if BTC runs to 72k this month. Chip and memory stocks a
Humanoid Robotics: Public Options Compared – And a Case for Component Suppliers
Humanoids are coming and there are three public options now. We have Unitree (688836) now public at $53B. -> 2025 revenue ~$250M (humanoids were half of that). -> 2025 humanoid shipments ~ 5,500. -> ASPs ~$24k -> Production already demonstrated in the multi-thousand unit annual output range. Nomura has already initiated a 25x (yes...25x) 2027 P/S multiple for Unitree. We have $Churchill Capital Corp XI(CCXI)$ (Agility) expected to go public at $2.5B pre-money. -> Trailing annual revenue ~$37M -> Cash burn ~$100M -> 150 units but 65,000 real world hours -> ~$125k BOM with a path to $30k long0term -> $300M multi-year contracted order. And we have Optimus /
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ nice pump yesterday. I'm pretty confident that tsla has bottomed at $298, but $370 will be a real test. It was previous support but was Broken, the 50 simple moving average is at that level as well. There is a high chance that it will drop after filling the gap, which is why I sold a $370 call To collect premium from my 100 shares. Do you think tsla can break the $370 resistance?
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some option strategies with you! 1 Back-to-back meetings from 9am - 12pm are done. Let's do some lunch time #Optionselling trades. Was looking at $Alibaba(BABA)$$Deere(DE)$$Wal-Mart(WMT)$ but not liking either the chart set-up or the premium at the strikes we want. Only one that look tempting is $BILL HOLDINGS INC(BILL)$ Sep 18 expiry $32.5 strike puts.
Moderna's 177% surge ignites HK biotech rally. Is it still time to buy in?
Today at the opening, Hong Kong-listed innovative drug stocks surged, with $石药集团(01093)$ jumping 14.28%, $药明康德(02359)$ rising 5% to hit a record high, and $百济神州(06160)$ climbing over 3.58%. On the news front, the rally was boosted by a breakthrough in R&D from a U.S. pharmaceutical company. On August 19, $Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$ and Merck jointly announced the successful Phase III trial of their partnered mRNA vaccine, sending Moderna's stock soaring 176.97% in a single day and adding $40 billion to its market capitalization. This marks the first success
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you! Currently, after a sharp rally, the market has confirmed short-term top signals and is in a clear phase of accelerating decline ahead of the European market open. $Gold - main 2612(GCmain)$ The bearish “Dark Cloud Cover” pattern indicates that, after reaching an all-time high of 4,527.45, the 4-hour chart has closed with two consecutive bearish candles featuring extremely large real bodies, completely engulfing the real bodies of the previous bullish candles. Technically, this is a classic signal of a top formation and reversal. Currently, there are no signs of a bottoming out indicated by a lower shadow; prices are expected to continue testing the 4,425–4,430
CoreWeave, the finance director of cloud provider CoreWeave, downplayed the words during the August performance call: "We recently signed an A100 (Fida chip) contract extending to 2029 at an attractive price. Just a reminder, this model was launched in 2020. 9 years of life!! Actually, is the issue of depreciation actually just that if he does more income, there is no problem. If he can't do it well, it's a big problem. $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$
【08.10-08.16】🏆 Weekly Review | AI Narrative Spills Into Storage! SNDK +35% in a Week — Three Traders, Three Very Different Playbooks
Same storage rally. Three standout traders. Three very different ways to play it. Storage stocks surged last week. SanDisk rallied sharply after its Investor Day on August 13, while other storage names including Micron and Western Digital moved higher as well. All three traders featured this week were bullish on the same theme — but they expressed that view very differently: one rode the move with SNDK shares, one spread exposure across multiple storage names, and another used short-dated options to bet on a breakout. So how did they catch the move? 👀 A quick look at last week's rankings: Prestige Leaderboard TOP 3: 🥇 lkyuptrend · 🥈 David Tan 89 · 🥉 YoMan Elite Leaderboard TOP 3: 🥇 5d0efe97 · 🥈 P.Dwayne · 🥉 Huatge68 Team Leaderboard: 🥇 o.o 🏆 Full rankings at the end of this post. 🧩 Trader